Autumn Angst: Dems fret about Obama

[DeepModem Mom]

Politico: Autumn Angst: Dems fret about Obama
By: David Paul Kuhn and Bill Nichols
September 11, 2008

Polls showing John McCain tied or even ahead of Barack Obama are stirring angst and second-guessing among some of the Democratic Party’s most experienced operatives, who worry that Obama squandered opportunities over the summer and may still be underestimating his challenges this fall.

“It’s more than an increased anxiety,” said Doug Schoen, who worked as one of Bill Clinton’s lead pollsters during his 1996 reelection and has worked for both Democrats and independents in recent years. “It’s a palpable frustration. Deep-seated unease in the sense that the message has gotten away from them.” Joe Trippi, a consultant behind Howard Dean’s flash-in-the-pan presidential campaign in 2004 and John Edwards’ race in 2008, said the Obama campaign was slow to recognize how the selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as McCain’s running mate would change the dynamic of the race....A major Democratic fundraiser described it a good bit more starkly after digesting the polls of recent days: “I’m so depressed. It’s happening again. It’s a nightmare.”

Adding to Democratic restlessness, McCain has largely neutralized some issue advantages that have long favored Democrats. This week’s USA Today/Gallup poll reported a split on which candidate “can better handle the economy”; 48 percent chose Obama while 45 percent said McCain. In late August, Obama had a 16-point edge on the issue. Also this week, an ABC News/Washington Post poll reported that when voters are asked “who can bring about needed change to Washington,” McCain still trails Obama by 12 points. But in June, McCain trailed by 32 points. That shift in the public’s perception of the issues, in Democratic pollster Celinda Lake’s words, “tremendously concerns me.”

Lake joined other Democratic veterans, some speaking not for attribution, in emphasizing a classic liberal woe: that the Democrat let the Republican define him. “Obama needed to define himself,” Lake said. “I do think that during the Democratic convention we should have done a better job of defining McCain.”

Steve Rosenthal, a veteran field organizer for Democrats and organized labor, said that some entrenched Democratic vulnerabilities never receded this year. And in his view, Palin has reawakened those liberal weaknesses. “For some white, working-class voters who don’t want to vote for Barack Obama but weren’t sure about McCain, Palin gave them a good reason to take another look and consider supporting McCain,” Rosenthal said....

(M)ost of the Democrats interviewed for this article, both on and off the record, expressed confidence that the landscape this year tilts in favor of a Democratic victory and that Obama has plenty of time to retake command of the race. Many predicted that any bounce in polls caused by Palin’s selection could be followed by a plunge as her record and qualifications continue to be scrutinized. Still, a wide range of conversations with Democrats yielded several reasons to doubt that Obama is quite the political natural — or the November shoo-in — that some of his most ardent supporters believed....

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=4E8FECBC-18FE-70B2-A8D86956CA5EE7E1

[progdonkey]

1. my sister messaged me last night...

telling me she was having this horrible nagging feeling that McCain-Palin might actually pull it off.

I told her that she needs to stop watching the news networks. They're the ones going apeshit over Palin because she's new and provocative. Wolf Blitzer even referred to her as the "Republicans' rock star VP candidate". WTF? It doesn't mean she's actually causing that much of a stir among voters.

Also, we still have all of the debates to get through. Even if the polls are correct about voter sentiment, Biden will make short work of Palin, and even if he doesn't and she somehow makes it through the debate without staring into the camera with a "moose in the headlights" look, there are three presidential debates for McCain to get through--he can barely get through a five minute news interview, let alone three two-hour debates, which is why he's been sequestered by his own campaign.

The American public could be just this stupid to vote for "super Bush" (I think McCain is more clueless and out of it than Bush, and Palin is more radical than Cheney--I think he's just a complete cynical asshole, while she's a True Believer in theocracy and End Times), but I also think a lot of this is due to the fact that we didn't really get to enjoy the high of the convention for very long. We had Obama's amazing speech, and then Palin Palin Palin and the Rep convention, and we're in a lull while we wait for the debates. And waiting is always the worst time, when you start second-guessing yourself and being open to panic.

I'd say don't panic or worry until we've had some debates and we see how people respond to those.

[DeepModem Mom]

2. I agree, especially with your note about our Convention. I thought it was...

just a triumph -- Kennedy, Michelle, Hillary, Bill Clinton, Biden and his son, Barack. And then to have that great high plummet to earth with the sight and sound of Sarah Palin! That, in itself, is dispiriting. I don't think it's going to be easy -- but I think we're not close to having lost it.

[drlefty]

3. Get Real

No way Obama loses this election. The lap dog media are concocting polls trying to drum up interest in a razor thin election so they can boost ratings. The reality is we have done the hard groundwork this time. Democratic registrations far exceed those of the GOP (Generation Over Party). Lets not start showing cracks in our confidence when we are so close. If you are worried help get out the vote on election day. If you are really worried help get it out twice (joke). Seriously many of you are going to be very happy on election day when you see the Democratic turnout in some traditionally red states like North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada and Colorado. Florida too I am hoping.

[PATRICK]

4. We are doing very well

and underneath the petty dirt and major vote suppression the Rove machine is reaching for the Big Risk to match the Big Lie. If it were just an election even with the lockstep GOP voters and both candidates having a sort of parity in voter presentation(McCain an old acquaintance, Obama unfamiliar) there would be angst about complacency. Instead we have well-founded angst about MSM bias and GOP theft, but I guess angst is angst. Next time it will be complacency or angst about the voters blaming us for the current economic disaster.

As for polls, this is similar to the Bush ratings slippage. How they timed the polls, spun them, rooted for Bush to turn it around. Then the silent treatment. I know there are many on DU who follow the MSM and polling game to assess our progress with the legitimate justification that this is what the electorate mainly sees. The trap is in forgetting how much falsity and spin corrupts this as data. And the timeline encourages the GOP to run out the clock on spin despite panicky defections by many media pundits who routinely trash Dems. The pattern I see in the polling is that Obama is headed to an impressive win despite his newness and anything else. He will never score on a solid 40 per cent of the populace sold on crap- this time. The unreality factor runs deep in the core McCain people and deeper in the illusions of this being anything like a fair, well prioritized election. In the war for democracy probably half the people at best only have a vague sense it is more than a typical "contest" and a huge chunk of votes are reasoned in the silly zone- barring trauma like we are heading into now.

The GOP NEEDS the trauma as much as WE think the electorate does. America- prepare to have your head fantastically screwed with for another month. It means we are winning now and the Regime must break out the tree-shaking plans it has held in reserve. Activist Dems, of course, are partly inured by perpetual angst.

[metapunditedgy]

5. Biden their time

Obama played catchup in the primaries with great success. McCain/Palin are doing everything they can to stay out of any forums (fora?) where they do anything more than flash a smile. Meanwhile, Obama/Biden are at least keeping pace, while McCain/Palin are doing increasingly drastic things just to tread water. Those drastic actions will backfire in the end. Here's an example, below. (Attribution: <http://metapunditedgytheanticlown.blogspot.com/2008/09/study-in-contrasts.html>)

Just keep the pressure on McCain/Palin; they will lose ground if the public sees them zigging and zagging.

-------------------------

John McCain "straight talk" in June, 2008:

Calling for "no process questions from reporters" and "no spin rooms," the presumptive Republican presidential nominee proposed one debate a week from now until the Democratic party convention in August....

"What a welcome change it would be were presidential candidates in our time to treat each other and the people they seek to lead with respect and courtesy as they discussed the great issues of the day, without the empty sound bites and media-filtered exchanges that dominate our elections," McCain said in a letter to Obama released by McCain's campaign.


John McCain "straight talk" in September, 2008:

Tomorrow morning, I will suspend my campaign and return to Washington.... I am directing my campaign to work with the Obama campaign and the commission on presidential debates to delay Friday night’s debate until we have taken action to address this crisis.


Edgy's hypothesis: McCain's goals are 1) to stay out of situations where he is directly questioned by reporters or his opponents, and 2) if the Presidential debate is sufficiently delayed, the McCain campaign can argue that there is no time/need for the VP debate. This would save a potentially embarrassing Palin/Biden confrontation.