2008 Election Model: Predicted the Electoral and Popular vote … but not the True Vote
TruthIsAll source: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/Final2008ElectionModel365EV.htmNovember 11, 2008The Final
2008 Election Model (
EM) projection exactly matched the
365–
173 electoral and recorded popular vote. The model projected that Obama would receive
365.3 expected electoral votes with a
53.1–
44.9% share. He has a
65.3–
57.4m recorded vote margin.
But the landslide was denied. Obama did better than the EM and recorded vote indicate. Only 124m votes have been recorded; 140m were forecast. According to the 2004 U.S. Vote Census, 122.3m votes were recorded of 125.7m cast; in 2000, 105m were recorded of 110.8m cast. Democrats traditionally win 70–80% of the uncounted vote.•••
The
EM projected that Obama would win by
75.9–
64.2m out of
143m total votes cast and capture
60% of
undecided voters (the
base case UVA scenario). The 75% UVA scenario gave him
53.9% (or 55.0% of the two-party vote) and
379.5 EV.
The
2008 Election Calculator (
EC) is a complementary True Vote model that is based on an estimated, feasible returning-2004-voter mix. It projected that Obama would win the True Vote with a
54.5–
44.4% share (
78.3–
63.8m).
•••
Right wing pundits are claiming that Obama’s 8 million vote margin is not a mandate, unlike the Bush 3m “mandate” in 2004. But we know that Obama won by
even more than 8 million votes. The
True Vote will only be revealed, if there is a real investigation by the courts, Congress and/or the Media. Don’t hold your breath.
2004/2008 Election Model and Election Calculator(input assumptions and base case scenario results)
2008EM - Obama 53.1% 365.3 expected EV 60% UVA.
EC - Obama 54.5%; feasible mix of returning 2004 voters and 12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares.
2004EM - Kerry
51.3% 337 expected EV, 75% UVA
State Exit Poll Aggregate (Edison-Mitofsky
WPE, "unadjusted"):
52–
47%EC - Kerry
53.2%; feasible mix of returning 2000 voters and 12:22am NEP vote shares.
Full article: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=510632&mesg_id=510632