To Believe the Official 2008 Recorded Vote, You Must Also Believe … ( TIA ) - x

[tiptoe]

x —Full article: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=512073&mesg_id=512073

To Believe the Official 2008 Recorded Vote, You Must Also Believe …

TruthIsAll      http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ToBelieve2008.htm

Feb. 11, 2009

If you believe that 2008 was fraud-free and Obama won the recorded vote by 9.5 million, then you must also believe that …

1. Bush won in 2004 by 12.5 million votes (54.6–44.4%), assuming 2008 NEP vote shares and a 95% turnout, despite the fact that his official recorded margin was 3.0 million (50.7–48.3%). The Final NEP is always 'forced' to match the official recorded vote.
(Tables 9, 10)

2. Pre-election likely-voter (LV) polls that did not include new voters (Obama 51.0–43.6%) were more accurate than registered voter (RV) polls (52.3–40.0%).
(Table 5)

3. The Final NEP is correct in stating that 5.2 million (4%) of the 2008 recorded 131.37m were returning 2004 third-party voters, despite the fact that there were only 1.2 million third-party voters in 2004 (less than 1% of the 2008 recorded vote).
(Table 1)

4. The Final NEP is correct in stating there were 17 million (13% 'DNV') new voters in 2008, despite the fact that 122.3 million votes were recorded in 2004, and approximately 6 million (5%) died. Of the 116m living in 2008, approximately 110m (95%) voted. Therefore there had to be 21 million new voters (16%). Is it just a coincidence that the 13% new voter stat is 3% too low and the 4% third-party stat is 3% too high?
(Table 1)

5. The Final NEP is correct in stating that Obama won returning voters by a slim 50–48% margin, despite the fact that he led the final LV polls (i.e. returning voters) by 50.45–43.91%. Assuming Obama had 75% of the undecided vote, he won returning voters by 54–45%. The NEP states that Obama won all voters who did not vote in 2004 by 71–27% and newly-registered voters by 69–30%. Therefore, Obama won 82% of the 2% who did not vote in 2004 but did in a prior election.
(Table 2)

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9. The Final NEP is correct in stating that there were 11 million more returning-Bush than -Kerry voters, despite the fact that Bush won by only 3.0m votes.
(Table 1)

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12. The Final NEP is accurate despite the fact that a mathematically impossible returning-voter mix was required to match the recorded vote.
(Table 1)

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14. There is no reason to suspect that votes were uncounted, despite the fact that 5.4 million were uncounted in 2000 and 3.4 million in 2004. Since 70-80% are Democratic (50% in minority districts), the Gore and Kerry vote shares were reduced by 1-2%.

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Table 1
2008 Final National Exit Poll — 'Vote for President in 2004'

How Voted
in 2004
Did Not Vote
Kerry
Bush
Other

Total

 

'Adjusted'
Mix
13%
37%
46%
4%

100%

 

'04 Electorate
Returning in '08
17.08
48.61
60.43
5.25

131.37 m

 

Obama
71%
89%
17%
66%

52.6%

Shares
(= 12.13)
(= 43.26)
(= 10.27)
(=   3.47)

(= 69.13)

 

McCain
27%
 9%
82%
24%

45.5%

Shares
(=  4.61)
(=  4.37)
(= 49.55)
(=  1.26)

(= 59.89)

 

'Other'
 2%
 2%
 1%
10%

 1.9%

Shares
(= 0.34)
(= 0.97)
(= 0.60)
(= 0.53)

(= 2.44)

 

Table 2
2008 Final National Exit Poll — 'Is This the First Year You Have Ever Voted?'

Yes
No

Total

 

Mix
11%
89%

100%

 

First-Time and
Returning Voters
 14.45
116.92

131.37 m

 

Obama
69%
50%

52.1%

Shares
(=   9.97)
(=  58.46)

(=  68.43)

 

McCain
30%
48%

46.0%

Shares
(=   4.34)
(=  56.12)

(=  60.46)

 

'Other'
 1%
 2%

 1.8%

Shares
(=  0.14)
(=  2.34)

(=  2.48)

 

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Table 5
Final November Pre-election LV and RV poll averages before undecided voter allocation (UVA).

Polls

 

Obama

McCain

Other

 

Undecided

LV (9)
RV (3)

 

51.00%
52.33%

43.56%
40.00%

1.50%
1.50%

 
 

3.94%
6.17%

 

Final RV Polls (before and after 75% Obama UVA)

RV Poll

 

Poll Date

 

RV Sample

 

Obama

McCain

Spread

 

75%
Obama

UVA
 

25%
McCain

 
 

Spread

Average

 

 

 

 

 

52.33

40.00

12.33

 

56.96

 

41.55

 

15.42

Gallup
ABC/WP
Pew

 
 
 

10/31 - 11/02
10/31 - 11/02
10/29 - 11/01

 
 
 

2,824
2,762
2,995

 
 
 

53
54
50

40
41
39

13
13
11

 
 
 

57.125
56.625
57.125

 
 
 

41.375
41.875
41.375

 
 
 

15.75
14.75
15.75

 

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Table 10
2004 True Vote

2000:  US Census Votes-Cast and State Records of Votes-Counted
 

 
 

2004 Calculated True Vote

 True  'Voted in 2000'  Mix 

 
 

12:22am NEP  ('13047')
'Voted in 2000' Shares

Total Votes
Cast in '00

Gore
Bush
Nader/Other

110.8
million

 

Recorded
Vote-Count

51.00
50.46
3.96

105.42

 

Uncounted
Allocation

4.04
1.18
0.16

5.38

 

Vote-Count
Adjusted

55.04
51.64
4.12

110.80

 

Deaths

2.69
2.52
0.20

5.41

 

Alive

52.35
49.12
3.92

105.39

 

Est '04 Turnout
of 'Voted 2000'
DNV
95%
95%
95%

100.13

 

Total Votes
Cast in '04

25.62
49.73
46.67
  3.72

125.74
True Vote

Recorded
Vote 2004

 

'Voted 2000'
Weight

20.4%
39.6%
37.1%
2.96%

100.0%
125.74

100.0%
122.29

 

Kerry

57%
91%
10%
64%

53.21%
66.91

48.27%
59.03

 

Bush

41%
8%
90%
17%

45.42%
57.11

50.73%
62.04

 

Other

2%
1%
0%
19%

1.36%
1.72 

1.00%
1.22 

 

 
 

2004 votes shares required to match 2008 Vote-Count
(reconciled as per Table 9 Vote-Shares and Voter-Mix)

 
 

'04 Required
To Match '08

 

100.0%
122.29

 

44.41%
54.31

 

54.59%
66.75

 

1.00%
1.23

[msongs]

1. does all this baloney have a point you can sum up in one sentence? nt