Moseley Braun leads in Illinois

[gottaB]

The source is here.

Moseley-Braun 22%
Gephardt 16%
Lieberman 15%
Dean 11%
Kerry 8%
Edwards 4%
Sharpton 3%

Other 13%
Undecided 8%

The MOE is 4.9%. Don't know if they asked about Graham, or anything about the wording.

Undoubtedly many will downplay this great showing by pointing to the name-recognition factor. Note, however, that although she is often dismissed, and Illini are among her most vitriolic critics, she's still kicking some political butt.

Combined with middle-of-the-pack showings in some recent polls, these numbers should drive a stake through the heart of the argument that she is not a serious candidate. (Of course it won't, but if you want polling data to make your case, here it is.)

[VoteClark]

1. Well not to be mean but,

She is from Illinois. I think she should be ahead there. I like her, and she did very well in the recent debates. She needs to practice speaking. She has good points that I like but she stumbles on words and I think that is due to the fact that she reads off her notes. She should just speak her mind and others will follow.

J4Clark

[gottaB]

3. Carol's skills

I sort of concur about her speaking skills, and sometimes I dread when she pulls her glasses down on her nose and flips through her notes.

However, she is definitely trying to define herself as rather lowkey, as a person who uses words judiciously, even at the risk of hesitancy and the occasional stumble. She seems aware of her weaknesses as a speaker, and sometimes turns it to her advantage, like at the hrc forum when she said the Bush Administration was making the courts "hostages to a patently right-wing idiot--uh, ideology," the look on her face was priceless. It was a crowd-pleaser.

That image appeals to many people, perhaps women especially.

Her nerdishness is in marked contrast to Bush, who also stumbles and uses few words, but for quite different reasons. Braun is literate, and if you think about it, literacy's not a such bad skill for a POTUS to have.

As for the homegirl advantage, I for one did not expect such a great showing, given all the trash talk I've seen from Illini online, and even in the Trib, and all the nasty gossip about her not really campaigning. Well, she's doing something right in Illinois, so if you'll excuse my raised spirits--

:party:

[TheDonkey]

12. Classic Carol!

She's a sweet lady and that definetly described her well.

[izzie]

4. That is the old way of doing it also.

It was not so bad as we did not know who would be running untill they called the states. It also gave states power to control who they would vote for. The convensions were fun to watch and hardly dull. Sometimes the roll would be called over and over. The way we do it now is said to be better for the people. I like we see who is running but not this one day thing. Also Bush got away with just buying his way in. Then he was 'shown' by his team of thinkers. Now we see he has no cloths and the GOP my even see it.

[bluestateguy]

2. Yawn

The way the primaries work is all about the expectations game. Expectations vary accross states and candidates. Dean can claim victory with a strong second in New Hampshire or Iowa, while nothing less than a win in Iowa will be a victory for Gephardt. Edwards must win in South Carolina, and Lieberman must win in New York, nothing less. A strong second or third for Al Sharpton in any state would be a victory for him, seeing as how he is at the bottom of the pack. Winning one's own state is a must for any candidate, and is not really a victory, but simply fulfilling expectations.

[jiacinto]

5. That's her home state

That's why she's ahead.

[gottaB]

6. updated: more info

The full survey results are here.

It's a survey of registered Dems, not of likely voters.

It has some interesting demographic breakdowns.

[Mairead]

7. I think that's excellent, GB!

They have the best reason to know her worth, so I'm glad they're showing it.

[gottaB]

9. omg, cheers, and a headsup

omg, it just hit me, is Kucinich being classed as "other"? Not a great poll for that.

Headsup: Kucinich is going to be guest blogging for Lessig next week. It will be a great opportunity for him to expand his netroots and grab some spotlight. His stands on crucial computer/internet issues are informed and progressive. As you know a lot of Lessig's fans are libertarianish geek types, and will have doubts about Kucinich's leftist politics. But they will love his criticism of PATRIOT, and they are dying for a political voice.

DU Kucitizens ought to be all over that one.

:toast:

[Mairead]

11. Thanks! Not the best one for Dennis indeed, but that's okay

As long as they got Carol right, that's really what matters. She deserves it...she's being badly undervalued.

[Egnever]

8. Carol is awsome!

I just love her! Hapy to see her being shown some suport and even leadng somewhere!

I dont think she will win but I love her message and im tickled to death every time i get to hear her speak in the debates!

[CarlBallard]

10. How early is the Illinois primary?

I simply don't know. But if it's toward the front a good showing (even with the fact that it's her home state, and whatever other caviats there are) would definately get her some traction. If it's toward the end of the primary season, it really won't matter.

[gottaB]

15. march 16

thescrum has an uptodate primary calander.

Carol's early tests will be in D.C. and South Carolina, perhaps Michigan. If she can't win any delegates before Illinois, she will be in trouble, but if she does well in the early primaries, that should give her a boost going into March. A lot of potential there.

It's still pretty early, you know. I'm not sure if or how conventional wisdom applies, and I don't anything about brokered conventions or whether that's a likely secanario.

[CarlBallard]

19. South Carolina

Is SC in play for her? Is it just that she thinks she can get a percentage of the delegates, or does she have a shot at the whole shebang? I mean I guess it's pretty conservative, even the Dems. Does the African American population put it in play for her? Has she been campaigning down there?

I don't know much about the South, so it's quite possible that there's stuff I don't know about.

[gottaB]

20. You can't spell South Carolina without C-A-R-O-L

That's a slogan from the South Carolinians for Moseley Braun website. (Ahem, it's not going to win any webbies.)

Carol hasn't been exactly barnstorming down there, but she has put in a few visits. All of the candidates I think have put in appearances. Lieberman has been very active, and Edwards and Kerry are picking up the pace.

According to gallup, Sharpton is most popular among African American South Carolinians, followed by Lieberman and then Braun. Graham does okay. Like Dean, Gephardt, Kerry and Kucinich do much better among white voters.

Carol's overall sc polling numbers have ranged from Who? to not absolutely horrible given the circumstances. You can look at polling methods, and try to estimate the effects of gotv efforts, but it's pretty up in the air. To win she will definitely need to both solidify her standing among African Americans and broaden her base just a bit. Getting more liberal white women should be easy enough. Reaching out to men and younger voters will be more of a challenge.

A win for would be an upset, but I do believe it's within her grasp. She has an ace I think in the flag issue, which she brought up during her February visit, but so far she's mainly sticking to her message on health care, education, the economy, civil liberties, and criticism of Bush's failed diplomacy--oh, and she's a woman. Time will tell if that's a message South Carolina Dems agree with.

Update: "Former U.S. Ambassador Carol Moseley Braun's campaign is seeking to "have field operations on the ground by early September" in South Carolina, according to campaign spokesman Michael Mannino. Mannino also said that Moseley Braun, the former U.S. senator from Illinois, has "received hundreds of e-mails from students around South Carolina and we plan to mobilize this base to make us successful in the Palmetto State." This according to dailygamecock.

[election_2004]

13. What if Moseley-Braun drops out before the Illinois primary?

Will that benefit Gephardt or Lieberman?

Or will Dean or Kerry pick up a good chunk of Carol's supporters?

[gottaB]

16. If Carol drops out first

I'd imagine her supporters would split eight ways. Sharpton would pick up a lot of her African American voters, but not as solidly as he would hope. Dean, Kerry, Gephardt and Lieberman are all possibilities, though with Carol's vocal opposition to Bush's war, I'm guessing Lieberman might be down towards the bottom. Graham? Among progressives Kucinich would be a natural second choice. And Edwards--hey, did you see the gender gapping there? Apparently some women think he's cute. That's got to account for one or two percent (/snarky). Seriously, I just don't know.

[dsc]

14. I am so glad to see this.

I remember seeing her rise to the Senate in 92. I worked for her a bit in her early campaign but had to return to Ohio. It was so sweet to watch her win that primary against Alan Dixon (the Zell Miller of Illinois). Then the general election.

Illinois will vote for her if she stays in. They did it for Simon in 88 even though his campaign was dead by then. The primary is in March (2nd Tuesday I think). BTW any Illini do you still vote seperately for delegate out there? In 88 I was able to vote for Simon and then vote for my friend who was a Jackson delegate.

[VoteClark]

17. gottaB you are doing a wonderful job for Carol, keep it up! :)

[SyracuseDemocrat]

18. Go Carol!

n/t

[Topper_Halo]

21. This party owes it to womyn to elect Moseley Braun.

The white male only establishment permeates this party, despite all of its rederic. Why, when woman give us so much, can we not give them the same, and let CMB be our nominee? Because men fear a strong effective leader that is female.

The Democratic party needs to stop jerking woman around NOW, and give us a candidate that is head and shoulders above the rest. That Candidate is Braun.

[ButterflyBlood]

22. it's not about "fearing a strong effective leader that is female"

it's that she's so scandal plagued. not to mention unelectable.

[Topper_Halo]

23. As was Bill Clinton before he was president

What's the difference?

Clinton was a man, and Braun is a womyn. And the sexist double standard must stop. Start treating womyn with respect, is that so hard?

For some it is, because they are too scared.

[ButterflyBlood]

29. no it's not hard

but that's not the issue. the issue is that if she couldn't even beat a fairly unknown ultra-conservative challenger in her home state, she'll never win the general election. the difference is that Clinton was still rather popular in his state and wouldn't lose another election, while Mosely-Braun did.

If a qualified electable woman ever ran, i'd support her, but CMB is definately not that.

[gottaB]

35. No that is the issue you raised

and now you've changed back to the fact that she lost an election--as did Bill Clinton. And all this corruption bullpuckey that was used against her, it never would have been used against a man.

After being accused and investigated of campaign finance abuse, the only thing that can be said is that she bought her boyfriend some gifts with her own money. Oh, and $311.28 unaccounted for. Hello? Three hundred dollars and a boyfriend. That's a good reason not to reelect somebody? I smell a rat, and you should too.

And as for the other "scandals" you seem to be aware of, well of course it's unfortunate that her boyfriend had friendships with family members of a leader who was not in favor and subject to U.S. diplomatic sanctions. And Carol has stated some regrets for the way she handled things and answered accusations of corruption. I will deal with this issue more fully in another post, but here I'm going to have to ask you why you repeat aspersions about a candidate that when you boil it down, ammount to her attending a funeral, privately, that a disdained African head of state also attended. Why repeat such baseless inuendos? You can't prove any real corruption because there's none there.

It really galls me that Dems get full of righteous indignation when the media isn't fair to prominent Dems, and they smell a rat behind every accusation, and suspect vast right wing conspiracies behind every media cycle. Yet when it comes to an obvious smear campaign against a black woman, an extremely virulent and wellfunded campaign (funny how you didn't mention that) where's the skepticism? Where's the outrage?

You know, in this primary I've seen this garbage spewing out of Slate from a fellow at the New American Foundation, and I've seen it repeated, and it just boggles the mind that supposed leftists and especially leftist Dems would be so uncritical about sources and be inclined to accept allegations as true after everything they've been through.

Because what's she really done? Had bad taste in men? Sorry, I don't even see evidence for that.

Thank God there are Dems in Illinois who have seen these allegations and heard these stories ad nauseum and yet they're still willing to put their faith in this woman's campaign. That says something.

[Topper_Halo]

37. And just think...

once the dirt comes out on Dean, Kerry, or some other nominee, this may not appear so bad after all.

But because CMB is a womyn, she must not be qualified. I am starting to understand the posts I have seen on other forums that discuss sexism against womyn here at DU.

[ButterflyBlood]

38. I'll admit I don't know much about the situation

or that Clinton lost an election, although I don't know when, since he was still governor when he ran. However she did lose in a Democratic state against an opponent who was hated by his own party, and I just heard she had lots of scandals working against her which caused that. I also know that on a whole she is still very unpopular in Illinois, as polls showed that she would lose to the now even more hated Fitzgerald if she ran to retake her seat and he ran for reelection after a major backlash to the state GOP over a bunch of corruption.

what I don't like here are the claims that "if you don't support her you must be sexist and have problems with women in power" when the fact is I simply think Kerry and Dean are far better and more electable candidates.

[mot78]

31. You're the first Mosely-Braun Supporter I've seen

She seems like a nice person. Maybe she could be US. ambassador to the UN if we can get a Dem in the White House.

[ButterflyBlood]

34. ambassador or a cabinet position would be fine

but there's no way she could be the nominee.

[Topper_Halo]

36. What? This is exactly the problem.

She could be a nice ambassador...why not she could be a great president.

Womyn can be leaders, and that means presidents.

But as usual, we are expected to work and serve for some male superior.

[Egnever]

26. how so?

I am not aware of the scandals surrounding her. Can you point me to them? I really like her from what I have seen. This is the frst I have heard of scandals

[ButterflyBlood]

28. something about using taxpayer money to travel to African countries

[Egnever]

30. hmmm

As part of her " ambasador duties "? or unrelated to them?

[ButterflyBlood]

33. it was while she was still a senator

so unrelated. i think that's the main reason she lost, and she was facing an opponent who was rather unknown and hated by even his own party.

[stevebreeze]

24. don't get me wrong I like Carol but

she is not likely to last long. She has a very serious deficit of funds. Polls of the populace this early reflect name recognition, period! The public won't pay any attention until the first of the year at the earliest.
:kick:
p.s. I am a Dem precinct worker in the Chicago burbs and walked precincts for her failed attempt at reelection.

[ErasureAcer]

25. And when Carol drops out she'll endorse Dennis Kucinich.

22% to Dennis Kucinich! YAY.

[genius]

27. She's on Dennis's short list for VP

What a team.

[ErasureAcer]

32. who else is on the list?

Moseley-Braun is awesome. I would love to see her as VP.

I guess some members here think women are "unelectable" to be vice president though. but support liars and flip-floppers(Dean) are.