How Dean could win

[liberalpragmatist]

Simple scenario and short post: If Dean wins both NH and IA, he'll have lots of momentum. The survivor of SC will challenge him and it'll be a 2-man race. Dean could emerge as the nominee by relying on the liberal and independent-friendly states. It's very possible to see him as the nominee.

That said, should he lose in Iowa but win in NH, then it'll be a two-man contest that Dean won't be part of. He'll have lost lots of momentum, and while he'll have gained some, he probably will be short on cash and a 3-candidate field will emerge initially. W/ a Dean whose lost some momentum from losing Iowa, Gephardt in Ia. or the SC survivor will have a strong chance.

Should Dean win Iowa but lose NH to Kerry, Kerry vaults to the top. But that's a different scenario. Probably, in that case, Dean loses.

[Nicholas_J]

1. By changing parties

ANd running the way he ran in Vermont, with TONS of Republican backing.

[Nicholas_J]

2. Given the nature of Iowa Voters

Most of the time, those who are high in the polls during the summer, drop by January.

[VoteClark]

3. My Prediction

Dean loses to Gephardt in Iowa

Dean loses to Kerry in NH.

Dean loses to Clark in SC.

Dean loses to Clark in Michigan

Dean wins in California

Clark wins the rest of Super Tuesday.

Dean stays unemployed until 2006 when the economy gets better under the Clark Administration.


:kick:
J4Clark

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. If ANYONE wins both IA and NH

If ANYONE wins both IA and NH they'll have an awful lot of momentum. But if not, with the fast pace of the primaries this time I wouldn't count anyone out till Super Tuesday.

[arcos]

5. I agree...

it can be a five men race up to Super Tuesday, probably make it or break it day.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

6. No way!

Gephardt is the one who has to win Iowa, not Dean. All Dean has to do is place in the top 3, and preferably beat Kerry. If Dean gets within a few points of Gephardt in Iowa it will be spun as a victory for him and a loss for Gephardt.

[DrFunkenstein]

7. Setting The Bar A Little Low, Huh?

Top 3? He would need to trounce Kerry in NH if he doesn't make top 2 in Iowa. Iowa was a cornerstone of anti-war sentiment. If he fails to place in Iowa, it will look very bad. Both Dean and Kerry need to stay in the top 2 of both contests, unless they somehow magically take SC where centrist doves and liberal hawks are not quite as celebrated.

[dsc]

8. He is virtually certain to have the most money

come January. He currently is in second place and the expectation is that he will be in first at the end of the third quarter. Plus he will get about twice the matching funds of anyone else. It won't be lack of money which does him in if he loses.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

9. Whose expectation is that?

[dsc]

10. There have been several reports stating that

his fundraising momentum should put him in first. As to the federal funds that is a matter of record.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

11. I haven't read any reports like that... link?

[RogueTrooper]

12. Do a search in either

Politics and Campaigns, GD or LBN. You should find the relevent information there.