Unveiling the Goobergunch Political Report's presidential predictions!

[goobergunch]

PRESIDENT-General Election
Democratic Nominee (213) v. George W. Bush/Dick Cheney (R) (269)
State EV Prediction
Alabama 9 SAFE GOP
Alaska 3 SAFE GOP
Arizona 10 LEANS GOP/possible TOSS-UP
Arkansas 6 TOSS-UP/possible LEANS GOP
California 55 LEANS DEM/possible SAFE DEM
Colorado 9 LEANS GOP/possible SAFE GOP
Delaware 3 LEANS DEM/possible SAFE DEM
District of Columbia 3 SAFE DEM
Florida 27 TOSS-UP/possible LEANS GOP
Georgia 15 LEANS GOP/possible SAFE GOP
Hawaii 4 SAFE DEM
Idaho 4 SAFE GOP
Illinois 21 LEANS DEM/possible SAFE DEM
Indiana 11 SAFE GOP
Iowa 7 TOSS-UP/possible LEANS DEM
Kansas 6 SAFE GOP
Kentucky 8 SAFE GOP/possible LEANS GOP
Louisiana 9 LEANS GOP
Maine
At Large 2 TOSS-UP/possible LEANS DEM
CD 1 1 LEANS DEM/possible TOSS-UP
CD 2 1 TOSS-UP
Maryland 10 SAFE DEM
Massachusetts 12 SAFE DEM
Michigan 17 TOSS-UP/possible LEANS DEM
Minnesota 10 TOSS-UP
Mississippi 6 SAFE GOP
Missouri 11 TOSS-UP/possible LEANS GOP
Montana 3 SAFE GOP
Nebraska
At Large 2 SAFE GOP
CD 1 1 SAFE GOP
CD 2 1 SAFE GOP
CD 3 1 SAFE GOP
Nevada 5 TOSS-UP/possible LEANS GOP
New Hampshire 4 TOSS-UP
New Jersey 15 LEANS DEM/possible SAFE DEM
New Mexico 5 TOSS-UP
New York 31 SAFE DEM/possible LEANS DEM
North Carolina 15 LEANS GOP
North Dakota 3 SAFE GOP
Ohio 20 TOSS-UP/possible LEANS GOP
Oklahoma 7 SAFE GOP
Oregon 7 TOSS-UP/possible LEANS DEM
Pennsylvania 21 TOSS-UP
Rhode Island 4 SAFE DEM
South Carolina 8 SAFE GOP
South Dakota 3 SAFE GOP
Tennessee 11 LEANS GOP/possible TOSS-UP
Texas 34 SAFE GOP
Utah 5 SAFE GOP
Vermont 3 SAFE DEM
Virginia 13 SAFE GOP/possible LEANS GOP
Washington 11 LEANS DEM/possible SAFE DEM
West Virginia 5 TOSS-UP
Wisconsin 10 TOSS-UP
Wyoming 3 SAFE GOP

http://www.freewebs.com/goobergunch/potus.html

Comments/Questions?

[demnan]

1. Ohio and West Virginia

Smartest thing Kennedy ever did was campaign in Appalachia. I hope the Dem nominee takes a page from his book.

[davidinalameda]

5. and Kentucky if we hold on to the governor's seat

Kentucky could be in play along with the rest of the border states

[helleborient]

2. Illinois Dems...Get Ready for Roadtrips!

As an Illinois Democrat (where we're looking safer and safer Dem)...it looks like some serious roadtrips into MO, IA, WI, and MI are in order for 2004!!

[Philosophy]

3. Do you really think nothing has changed since 2000?

Looks like this follows the 2000 results almost exactly.

[jburton]

4. My adds...

I think these are mostly right on, however...

Some states that * squeaked by in 2000 are doing really shitty right now, and I think are thus toss-up or leans Dem.

For example-

New Hampshire
Nevada
Ohio
W Virginia

[mndemocrat_29]

6. I don't know about Nevada, that may still have a slight GOP tilt

But otherwise I agree. I'd put Ohio (Democrats should start campaigning about energy here!) and West Virginia in the tossup, and New Hampshire as a Tossup/Lean Dem.

[goobergunch]

8. GPR has WV as a toss-up...

I have NH as a pure toss-up as well, and OH as a toss-up/possible leans Repuke. I think it's too soon to move NH into the Democratic column, and Ohio still has a certain Repuke trend. But these predictions are subject to change...this is only Volume 3, Number 1 of GPR.

[leftist_rebel1569]

7. you're right about MN, that's for sure

I know this place is gonna end up to be a hotbed for campaigning...

[VermontDem2004]

9. About Arizona

I say it is a Toss-up/possible LEANS GOP. Tech Jobs is what really made this State and they all shipped over to China and hurt Arizona's economy. That is why I predict Toss-up/possible LEANS GOP

[goobergunch]

10. Good point...

GPR has been updated.

[ButterflyBlood]

11. Minnesota should at least be a possible LEANS DEM

Backlash against Pawlenty and the Republicans will hurt * immensly, especially since his welfare for the rich aren't helping the state any.