Things are looking good in NH

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

August 19, 2003
Dean Jumps into Lead Among Democrats in New Hampshire


Bolstered by television advertising, Vermont Governor Howard Dean has jumped into the lead in ballot preference and favorability among likely Democratic primary voters in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. In ballot preference, Dean leads with 28% to 21% for Senator John Kerry and 10% for Congressman Dick Gephardt. As for candidate favorability, 63% of likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Dean, 61% have a favorable opinion of Kerry, and 47% have a favorable opinion of Gephardt.

snip


Of the 32% of likely Democratic primary voters undecided in their preference for president, 41% have a favorable opinion of Dean, and 32% have a favorable opinion of Kerry.

Of the 28% of likely Democratic primary voters saying they would vote for Dean, 61% have a favorable opinion of Kerry. Of the 21% of likely Democratic primary voters saying they would vote for Kerry, 43% have a favorable opinion of Dean.


Lots of interesting numbers and breakdowns, but it's too hard to post them because the numbers never line up right. :)

[rabid_nerd]

1. Undecided leads, gained 2%

over last poll.

Once someone beats "undecided", let me know.

[MrJones]

2. Undecided is leading, but..

(a) the distance between Dean and undecided is well within the margin of error, and
(b) of the undecideds, 41% have a positive impression of Dean, while 32% have a favorable impression of Kerry.

Also, while undecided may have gained 2 points since the last poll, Dean gained 11, and Kerry lost 4. In fact, no candidate other than Dean actually gained support since the last poll.

[tedoll78]

3. Question:

How does this poll (or others) factor-in the number of new people Dean is allegedly bringing into the process, people whose names might not have been included in the sample pool? I wonder if his support is actually larger? :)

[goobergunch]

4. I'm not a big fan of ARG's polls...

but this is a promising sign for Dean.