The New South (Politically)

[displacedyankeedem]

I thought it might be useful to provide my opinions of the South (VA,TN,SC,NC,GA,FL,AL,MS,AR,LA) politically, and see what everyone thinks

State by State

Florida: Florida stands poised to become the East Coast version of California, a large solidly Democratic state. I think conservatism is in it's way out as Orlando, Tampa, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, and Miami become more Democratic. It simply becomes a game of math, and carrying the panhandle, rural counties and Jacksonville's Duval County simply won't hack it for the Republicans anymore.
STATUS:Likely Democrat

Georgia: If only the Atlanta suburbs were solidly Dem, we could rule the roost forever. As it stands now, Georgia isn't out of reach for a Democrat on any level. I think 2002 will prove to be a one-time fluke, and Purdue will be outta a job by '06. Same goes for that idiot Chambliss. I also think that the '04 Senate race will be a key test as to how much the Democratic message still resounds in Georgia.
STATUS:Toss-Up

North Carolina: North Carolina may turn out to be a very promising Democratic state within the next 5 years. There are two main elements behind the shift: 1)The growth of the RDU high tech center, which has become a solidly growing Democratic metropolis and 2)The death of the textile industry, which is being laid at the hands of free-trading Republicans. In addition, Mecklenburg County(Charlotte), was barely won by Bush in 2000 by a 3 point margin. I think the one thing that best illustrates the shift is the fact that John Edwards became the first Southern senator in living memory to not repudiate the national party and win, while Jesse Helms knew he was going to lose in 2002 and packed it in(if Bowles had had another 2 weeks, I even think Liddy Dole loses).
STATUS:Toss-Up for now, within 5 years Leans Democratic

Virginia: Virginia mirrors NC, with the high tech growth in the DC ‘burbs driving a lot of the change. The more Democratic shift in Loudon and Fairfax counties is making it increasingly difficult for Republicans to carry statewide elections, and as Mark Warner's victory showed, Democrats are only getting stronger and smarter.
STATUS:Toss-Up for now, within 5 years Leans Democratic

Tennessee: Tennessee is a state which, like Georgia, is never out of reach on any level. However, it does lean Republican despite a heavy Democratic presence in areas like Nashville’s Davidson County and Memphis’s Shelby County. Phil Bredson’s victory was heartening to see, and Harold Ford Jr has an excellent shot at becoming Senator when Frist retires in ’06.
STATUS:Leans Republican

Louisiana & Arkansas : Louisiana and Arkansas are lumped together because they are the last remnants (along with GA) of the old Democratic South which continues to send conservative Democrats such as John Breaux, Blanche Lincoln, and Rodney Alexander to Congress. Both states also supported Clinton in ’92 and again in ’96, and have shown that given the right candidate, they will support Democrats on a national level.
STATUS:Toss-Up

Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina: These three states make up the core of the Republican South. I can’t envision any of them voting for a national level Democrat in the primary. However a local Democrat who is extremely popular, such as Inez Tenenbaum (SC), can get elected as a Senator or Governor as long as they don’t branch out too far into the left wing.
STATUS:Solid Republican

RISING STARS OF THE NEW SOUTH

There are more than a few folks who I believe have bright futures in national level politics, especially as the South has recently been the crucial swing states over the past several elections. That said, here’s the list:

1.Gov. Mark Warner (Virginia): He’s young, wealthy, articulate, and good-looking. He doesn’t get a whole lot of press nationally, but I expect he’ll run and win the 2006 Senate race against George Allen. From there, it’s not too hard to envision him on the ticket in ’08 or ’12.
2.Sen. John Edwards (North Carolina): Okay, calling him rising is probably not accurate, but he sure is impressive.
3.Sen. Mark Pryor (Arkansas): Another guy who hasn’t gotten a lot of attention, I just have this feeling about him.
Potential: Inez Tenenbaum(South Carolina): If she wins, I think she (and not Mary Landrieu) could be that female voice Democrats can show off in the South.

[goobergunch]

1. I admire your optimism...

but I have to disagree with you on certain points:

Florida

If only...the 2002 Repuke surge in FL means that IMHO the Repukes start as slight favorites in most elections.

Georgia

Although I think GA trends slightly Repuke, I agree that the 2004 Senate election will be a good test...and don't forget about BBV.

I would also switch Louisiana and Tennessee.

[HereSince1628]

2. I tripped immediately on Florida "a solid democratic state"

or do you mean California a solid democratic state?

We all know that the last presidential election in FL was, ahem, rather close. According to my spreadsheet in the past 11 presidential elections its only gone democratic three times...

And California has gone Dem less than half the time in the presidential elections of the past 50 years.

How do you determine what is "largely democratic?" I'd rather have Florida be a solid Dem state with a record like Minnesota than for it to be like California.

[OHdem10]

5. Fla--A Democratic State???

It has been widely reported that Fla is becoming more and more Democratic in its poitics. Just about the only part left is northern Fla which Republicans hang onto. Unfortunately they have in the past convinced a lot of Dems to vote for them. When the party ceded
the South to the Republicans, there was not the life in the Dem. Party to keep them enthused. Remeber Bov Graham was Govenor of Fla
for 12 years. Things are changing. and Dems are on the rise.
even before the 200 election there were commentators poing out the changing politics of Fla.

[Champion Jack]

3. What about West Virginia?

Does that count as the south?

[displacedyankeedem]

14. Re:West Virginia

I actually group WV with more industrialized Midwest due to the economic factors at hand, though in all fairness, it doesn't really fit well anywhere

[davidinalameda]

15. my two cents about West Virginia

it's getting more conservative or at least it's becoming more openly conservative.

The Democrats will hold the governorship in 2004. I'm calling Lloyd Jackson as the winner. He'll get the union vote, which is still strong, and the moderate wing of the party.

He'll be able to defeat anyone the Republicans put up.

BUT, the second congressional district seat may stay in Republican hands for at least the next 2 or 3 elections unless the Democrats put up a strong candidate. Jim Humphreys bit as a candidate in 2000 and 2002. There are some good candidates out there but the Republicans will do anything they can to keep this seat. They will spend like crazy.

I think that with a strong governor's race in 2004, the Democrats will be able to put West Virginia back in the blue column.

[styersc]

4. I agree that ga and Fla or in play.

Florida was rattled awake by the screwing of 2000 and there are many Georgians, even repubs, who are embarassed by the treatment that Max Cleland received in 2002. I believe that ga will not go so easily to the GOP. In Ga, Gov Barnes has been ordered by the Repub National Committee, to lose the Confed Flag as an issue and this is the issue that turned the bubbas out in droves.

SC is tight. It depends who will head the Dem ticket if it can be of any help to locals. Inez is a fantastic candidate and will make a great Senator. I only regret that we will lose her as a possible Gov in 2004.

[NewJerseyDem]

6. A few points

I think that in the long term Virginia and Florida have a lot of hope. I think that your analysis is a little too optimistic in how long it will take. Georgia, North Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Tennessee all show some promise. However, I think that it will be a while before we can make much improvement. South Carolina, Mississippi and Alabama seem like they will in the republican column for the near future.

I think that those people are clearly some rising stars. Mark Warner is pretty good and I really hope he will run against Allen in 2006 and win. Mark Pryor has been surprisingly liberal during his time in the senate. I was originally worried he would be more like Breaux or Nelson. He may turn right after seeing how liberal is ratings are from the ACU and ADA and he will have to bring back his conservative image to win. Tenenbaum shows a lot of promise. If she wins she could definitely be a leader in the South.

I'm not sure about John Edwards. If he ends up in January 2005 not being in the senate or white house and he didn't win the nomination or VP nomination his career could be really hurt. He may have overreached here.

[mndemocrat_29]

8. I agree with the stars

Warner will make a great senator when he defeats Allen (two senators named Warner from Virginia, wonder what the roll call will do?)

Pryor is very young and could have a very long career ahead of him.

Inez will be fantastic! I can't wait until she's a senator. (I also think that Blanche Lincoln is a rising star in the South)

I think that Edwards jumped the gun here. He easily could've ran in 2012 or 2016 (I'm not saying 2008 because we'll be campaigning for a reelection that year.) I doubt he'll be on the ticket in 2004, and I think he's really hurt his chances at the senate in 2004 (we should all back Bowles). Therefore, I think he should run against Dole in 2008 or run for governor or become Attorney General

[jiacinto]

7. I respond in bold

I thought it might be useful to provide my opinions of the South (VA,TN,SC,NC,GA,FL,AL,MS,AR,LA) politically, and see what everyone thinks

State by State

Florida: Florida stands poised to become the East Coast version of California, a large solidly Democratic state. I think conservatism is in it's way out as Orlando, Tampa, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, and Miami become more Democratic. It simply becomes a game of math, and carrying the panhandle, rural counties and Jacksonville's Duval County simply won't hack it for the Republicans anymore.
STATUS:Likely Democrat


Sorry I am not that optomistic about Florida. While I do agree that the metropolitan areas you describe are becoming LESS Republican, they are not fully Democratic yet. I think you are two election cycles ahead of yourself on that point.

Georgia: If only the Atlanta suburbs were solidly Dem, we could rule the roost forever. As it stands now, Georgia isn't out of reach for a Democrat on any level. I think 2002 will prove to be a one-time fluke, and Purdue will be outta a job by '06. Same goes for that idiot Chambliss. I also think that the '04 Senate race will be a key test as to how much the Democratic message still resounds in Georgia.
STATUS:Toss-Up

I see Georgia staying Republican in 2004. The state does have potential, as Clinton was able to win in 1992 and came up just short in 1996. But frankly I see the Republicans holding sway here.

North Carolina: North Carolina may turn out to be a very promising Democratic state within the next 5 years. There are two main elements behind the shift: 1)The growth of the RDU high tech center, which has become a solidly growing Democratic metropolis and 2)The death of the textile industry, which is being laid at the hands of free-trading Republicans. In addition, Mecklenburg County(Charlotte), was barely won by Bush in 2000 by a 3 point margin. I think the one thing that best illustrates the shift is the fact that John Edwards became the first Southern senator in living memory to not repudiate the national party and win, while Jesse Helms knew he was going to lose in 2002 and packed it in(if Bowles had had another 2 weeks, I even think Liddy Dole loses).
STATUS:Toss-Up for now, within 5 years Leans Democratic

NC will be Republican in 2004. However, even though the fast growing areas in the state are becoming less Republican, you are at least two election cycles ahead of yourself.


Virginia: Virginia mirrors NC, with the high tech growth in the DC ‘burbs driving a lot of the change. The more Democratic shift in Loudon and Fairfax counties is making it increasingly difficult for Republicans to carry statewide elections, and as Mark Warner's victory showed, Democrats are only getting stronger and smarter.
STATUS:Toss-Up for now, within 5 years Leans Democratic

You are too optomistic about Virgina. Fairfax County has become much more Democrat. Nader+Gore's totals outnumbered Bush in 2000; but, even so, the rest of the state is conservative. I don't see Virginia coming into play until 2010 or later. The growth of minority populations there will put it into play then. But you are at least two cycles ahead of yourself.


Tennessee: Tennessee is a state which, like Georgia, is never out of reach on any level. However, it does lean Republican despite a heavy Democratic presence in areas like Nashville’s Davidson County and Memphis’s Shelby County. Phil Bredson’s victory was heartening to see, and Harold Ford Jr has an excellent shot at becoming Senator when Frist retires in ’06.
STATUS:Leans Republican

TN will go Democratic before GA, NC, and VA. I think it will be competetive in 2004.

Louisiana & Arkansas : Louisiana and Arkansas are lumped together because they are the last remnants (along with GA) of the old Democratic South which continues to send conservative Democrats such as John Breaux, Blanche Lincoln, and Rodney Alexander to Congress. Both states also supported Clinton in ’92 and again in ’96, and have shown that given the right candidate, they will support Democrats on a national level.
STATUS:Toss-Up

I agree on these states.

Mississippi, Alabama, and South Carolina: These three states make up the core of the Republican South. I can’t envision any of them voting for a national level Democrat in the primary. However a local Democrat who is extremely popular, such as Inez Tenenbaum (SC), can get elected as a Senator or Governor as long as they don’t branch out too far into the left wing.
STATUS:Solid Republican

Those three states, and Oklahoma, are out of reach. Texas too.


RISING STARS OF THE NEW SOUTH

There are more than a few folks who I believe have bright futures in national level politics, especially as the South has recently been the crucial swing states over the past several elections. That said, here’s the list:

1.Gov. Mark Warner (Virginia): He’s young, wealthy, articulate, and good-looking. He doesn’t get a whole lot of press nationally, but I expect he’ll run and win the 2006 Senate race against George Allen. From there, it’s not too hard to envision him on the ticket in ’08 or ’12.
2.Sen. John Edwards (North Carolina): Okay, calling him rising is probably not accurate, but he sure is impressive.
3.Sen. Mark Pryor (Arkansas): Another guy who hasn’t gotten a lot of attention, I just have this feeling about him.
Potential: Inez Tenenbaum(South Carolina): If she wins, I think she (and not Mary Landrieu) could be that female voice

[Abigale Applewhite]

9. Georgia

Born and raised in the state, although I have been away from Georgia for more than 50 years, I would say Georgia isn't out of reach, a few more like George Bush , will put Georgia back in the solid Democrat party .. I think it could come to pass in the next election. You see I remember the Roosevelt & Dewey election, when in my school, the only people who voted for Dewey was a farm family a wealthy farm family.

I think Barry Goldwater who helped to turn the state republican he wrote for one of the Atlanta papers

Another thing that helped to push them republican , was Newt, when he defeated Congressman John Flynt...

One more administration like this one by George Bush and the south will be solid again.

[Abigale Applewhite]

10. North Carolina

WE may be watching North Carolina, as it turns democratic, I think the entrance of John Edwards, into the race for Senator, may have been the turning point in North Carolina. And the terrible administration of George Bush isn't sitting well with the republicans, even though they aren't expressing the fact.

[renie408]

11. Article about SC becoming disillusioned with Bush....

http://www.chn.org/issues/outsidearticle.asp?art=1571

[genius]

12. The trouble is the vote-rigging. We don't stand a chance

unless we get those computers thrown out.

[ringmastery]

13. You forgot

Naples..Ft. Myers

The southwest coast of Florida is heavily republican and growing in population like gangbusters.

FL is about split politically. Statewide elections will be close for the foreseeable future. As far as the state legislature and house seats, don't expect democratic gains for at least 10 years.

FL is one of the most gerrymandered states in the country.

[burr]

16. Will it be Young or Nunn?

This is still the big question in the Georgia Senate race...

"It's been two weeks or so since Michelle Nunn, daughter of Sam, allowed her name to be floated as a possible Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate.

But talk of her candidacy has been stalled by former Atlanta Mayor Andrew Young's decision-making process. Young's reportedly waiting on a poll and some final medical tests before he commits to the 2004 campaign.

Even so, Nunn has significant support, especially among South Georgia Democrats. House Speaker Terry Coleman is said to be a fan."

<http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/insider/index.html>

One huge difference between this election and previous ones, the huge battles were once fault in the Democratic primary. In 1990 it was between Miller and Young, in 1982 it was between Congressman Bo Ginn and Joe Frank Harris, and in 1980 it was between Talmadge and Miller. Now that the Republicans are becoming a dominate force in state politics, Democrats know they must stand united or they will fall divided. This is why Michelle Nunn and Jim Marshall have stated they will back Young for the Senate, unless Andy Young decides not to run.