New Zogby poll to show Dean 38% Kerry 17% in NH

[DJcairo]

Dean is clearly peaking to soon. Kerry hasn't even advertised.

www.nytimes.com for full article

[LeftCoast]

1. That's a mighty big leap o'logic there pardner...

Clearly?

[George_Bonanza]

2. That's true

Kerry hasn't really done anything to attempt to really capture the public's attention, while Dean has, pretty successfully. But it's not as if Kerry has tried to blitz his way to the top, and failed. His campaign hasn't even really started, and the polls reflect that. I think the polls just show media attention, and who's been easily getting the most? Dean? Kerry has hardly gotten a snuff, other than a speech here and there. And most Americans are bored by speeches. But when Kerry starts running ads and making campaign pitches, he will rise.

[DJcairo]

4. Couldn't agree more

And it's nevere going to be this easy for Dean again. he was uncontested throughout this whole time by any other candidate and now he's going to have to face them, primarily Kerry. The big question is how he will face that. Kerry, I believe is strong and more effective, and I hate to say it, but a lot hipper. His sense of style and grace on teh podium gives th eimpression of a much more sure fire candidate.

[valphoosier]

25. Nice spin...

It's awfully Clinton-esque. But I don't know if even the "comeback kid" could spin a gap that has grown from about 5 points to 21 points in less than a month as a sign that Dean is done. Nice try, though. :-)

[virtualobserver]

44. Kerry's "plummet" strategy is working.

Dropping from 26% in Feb to 17% now is quite an accomplishment.

[NateT]

65. couldnt read all those posts, but have a few thoughts from the ones I have

Yes Dean is growing in NH polls. But remember, the hype around the first 2 primaries are a bit overgrown - it develops momentum... but McCain won NH I believe, and everyone thought he was gonna be huge.
The problem is that yes, Dean might believe his more liberal views reflect the democratic wing of the democratic party but moderates like Kerry represent the electable wing.
Lets see, Dean wins... whats his strategy to beat Bush?
What are his poll numbers of him vs bush rather than Kerry vs Bush?

[virtualobserver]

67. but McCain had no money........

Plus, other than NH , McCain had no organization.

Dean may have the most money and the best nationwide organization.
I'm not saying that it is over. but it is a bad sign that Kerry is dropping in NH.

[DJcairo]

31. All they show is that Dean has advertised on TV in NH and Kerry has not

[valphoosier]

45. Free media

John Kerry has received free median in N. Hampshire as a Senator from Massachusets (with its expansive Boston media market), yet a few Dean ads account for a 21% lead? By that logic, John Edwards should be leading as well, as he has run ads in New Hampshire. No offense, but trying to get some good news for Kerry out of this is ridiculous. If you want to put a pro-Kerry spin on this it can only be that he needs to analyze his efforts in New Hampshire and take another look at his campaign there. But, with do respect, saying this poll makes it obvious Dean will fade is not logical at all.

[unfrigginreal]

3. Is it possible that Kerry's to late to the party?

Seems more realistic than your explanation.

[DJcairo]

5. All I'm saying

is that it will be hard for Dean to attain this kind of energy again. He now has a base, but as the NY Times says, they are primarily white upper middle class anti-war youth or the aging flower power generation. IU was at Bryant Park tonight and there was that colorful, yet 70's looking graffitti art and all these flower power signs in front of the stage which you probably couldn't see on TV. That's Dean's deomgraphic and that is a losing demographic. You can not win on them alone. Dean has to seak out other parts of the democratic party, minorities, the elderly if he is to have a serious chance. Kerry already has those connections and the means of utilizing them.

[dean4america]

11. weak argument

just because the new york times prints something does not make it true. the article is hardly fair or balanced. I take umbrage to the characterization that I am an upper middle-class white anti-war youth. I'm 27, finishing a ph.d., have a ton a student loans to pay off, and was raised by a single-mother. I was NOT drawn to the Dean campaign because of his anti-THIS-war stance, but in his overall policy positions and demeanor. as the meetups reveal, there are a lot of disaffected voters out there who would not vote in thhis coming election were it not for howard dean, and THEY are not white, upper middle class either. 50 bucks as the average donation? sounds like middle america to me.

Just because your man Kerry is slipping doesn't mean you should distort the facts. Leave that b.s. to Lehane and Jordan and the rest of the jokers that pass for a campaign management team. and as for kerry having the means to organize on the ground in comparison to Dean... good luck with that one.

Dean/Clark04

[ima_sinnic]

12. my 87-year-old WWII vet father is a big Dean supporter & booster

--hardly "white upper middle class anti-war youth" and too old even to be "aging flower power" . . . Dean hasn't even begun. He's bringing them in from all ends of the spectrum. Kerry is more of the same old same old, stale, and he didn't have the cajones to oppose Bush on the war resoluation; Dean is fresh and gutsy.

[CMT]

13. In Iowa

he leads Gephardt (according to the Des Moines Register Poll) among Union Members which are essentially blue collar.

[CWebster]

15. The notable characteristic of the Dean campaign is

it's broad appeal. The NYTimes was simply promoting a shopworn image in reporting on an unavoidable movement that has become a political phenomenon. It is early in the game and the Dean campaign can utlilize this perception to spurn greater outreach efforts than ever. Go for it.

[CMT]

35. yes and also Zogby reports

"Dean's support is across the board in both congressional districts and with men, women, democrats, independents, liberals and moderates."

Dean has a favorable rating of 71-9

[Nicholas_J]

51. Actually

SInce polling first began, every candidate who polled so highly early in the campaing cycle, lost the nomination.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

56. Then you've got nothing to worry about.

Now you can focus your efforts on positive Kerry threads.

It must be a relief that Dean is out of the picture now.

Now, I guess I'll start campaigning for Dennis. Unless you think there is something I should know about him, too.

[ProfessorPlum]

58. Here's hopin'!!!

;)

[AWD]

46. So.,.....

That's Dean's deomgraphic and that is a losing demographic.

Tell us....how's it feel to be 21 points BEHIND a losing demographic??

Give it up, your spin has made you dizzy.

[VermontDem2004]

68. bzzzt... wrong

My 44 year old mother supports Dean and she voted republican her entire life. (She is now pretty liberal), I support Dean and I am definately not upper middle class. I've been telling people about Dean and his policies help minorities and elderly, look at his health care proposal. That seems to be one of his top prioritys when he is campaigning.

[acerbic]

6. This message will be repeated after Dean has been nominated

...and after he's been elected:

Dean is clearly peaking to soon.

:-)

[KaraokeKarlton]

7. LMFAO!!!

hee hee hee hee hee

That was good, really, really good!

[DrFunkenstein]

8. Yeah, But He'll Never Get A Second Term!

In your face!:hi:

[KaraokeKarlton]

9. LOL

Well, we re-elected him 5 times and so would the country if a president could serve that long. :D

[DrFunkenstein]

64. If That Were True, Clinton Would Be King By Now

<>

"Check out that blue dress!"

[unfrigginreal]

10. Yes He Will...

cause we'll win you guys over in the end.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

21. Good one, Doc.

[AWD]

14. Ummmmm....yeah

Yeah, I always think 21% leads are bad.

Can you possibly get a grip???

[polpilot]

16. Dean at 38%. Still have 62% to go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dean '04

[Larkspur]

17. In 1995 when the UCONN women's basketball team was striving towards its

1st National Championship, the media kept saying that undefeated UCONN was peaking or under too much stress due to its undefeated season and weak schedule and would eventually collapse and lose to Tenn in the Championship game. UCONN had defeated Tenn in their first ever meeting, but it was held on UCONN's home court and the media discounted the victory as cheap.

You know what the media-knocking-UCONN technique did? It made the UCONN teamates more focused to prove the media wrong. I could see the intensity in point guard Jen Rizzoti's eyes and the media just made her more determined to prove them all wrong. As the NCAA Tournament stated, I prayed that the media kept to its knocking-UCONN tactic because I feared that if they started praising UCONN, Jen Rizzotti and her teammates would lose their focus because they wouldn't know what to do with compliments.

I attended the 1995 East Regional game at UCONN when UCONN played Virginia for the Regional Title. When I got to the game, I sat in the section directly behind where Robin Roberts would broadcast the game. Robin was wearing an orange suite and white blouse. A woman behind me asked rhetorically, "Why is Robin Roberts wearing orange and white?" I replied, "Because she is rooting for Tenn even though they are not playing UCONN right now." That East Regional game started with UCONN leading by 20 points early in the first half and went down to the wire, and a lot of that lead shaving was due to bad officiating giving Virginia the ball back or free throws.

Eventually, Fate decreed that UCONN play Tenn in a rematch for the National Championship in 1995, and the Husky women went on to defeat Tenn to win the schools first every NCAA Women's Basketball Championship in 1995.

The Dean Campaign will win the nomination and White House. The Dean Campaign is growing, not dying. And none of the other candidates have got the fire to challenge Dean.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

18. Peaking? Who said anything about Peaking?

The peak will be reached in November 2004.

Better to say that he's SURGING!

LOL...waiting while the Dean-haters desperately seach for the MOE on this poll, crossing their fingers that it's +- 21.

[blm]

19. It SHOULD be declaring Dean the winner by now.

After many months of promoting Dean over the other candidates, the corporate media really should have him winning at least by next month.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

20. Does that mean we can ask * to leave early?

That would be cool. Just hand it over to Dean now. Imagine how much more * can screw things up before next year.

[Nazgul35]

23. you actually have to do something...

for the press to promote you....you seem to imply that Dean just sat on his hands, a relative unknown...and was plucked from obscurity...raised up by the media to thwart the ambition of the true democratic party...perhaps this is even a communist plot...yeah, that's it...it's those damn commies again...trying to thwart our way of life and deny that true bastion of the democratic good...(insert candidate name here...but not Dean's)...

You see people, the have crawled out from the caves...they see the true light...the perfect form candidate...while we are still strapped to the wall...looking at the shadows reflected their cause we are to pig ignorant to GET IT...

Have you accepted (insert candidate's name here) as your personal democratic nominee...no, here's some literature, casue you are obviously too stupid or just plain evil to know the truth and I have to show you the way...grab my cloak brothers and I will lead you into the light....

Get over yourselves everyone...we chose candidates cause they are the best candidates for us...and guess what, just cause issue X is important to you doesn't mean it is as important to issue y for us...life is multi-dimensional and to deny it is just simplistic jargon...

here endith the lesson....

[blm]

26. Dean DID sit on his hands while Kucinich was speaking at

antiwar rallies and submitting legal efforts to stop the war. But, Dean just let the press anoint him the liberal antiwar candidate while doing NOTHING compared to Kucinich. He was neither liberal OR antiwar. Just for a slightly different version of the resolution.

But, the press IGNORED Kucinich while focusing on Dean, so Dean collected all the money and support from the left early on, and hasn't looked back on their foundation built on spin.

Most people who only hear the corporate media will tell you that Dean is the ONLY candidate who speaks out against Bush or speaks out against the war. YOU can be happy about that. Those of us who watched it happen, and know that there is something wrong with this picture, have valid reasons to distrust the media and WHY they have been promoting Dean so prominently.

[Larkspur]

38. Dean was publicly voicing opposition to the Iraq war

when many of his fellow Presidential candidates -- Kerry, Edwards, Lieberman, and Gephardt -- were voting for the 2002 Iraq War Resolution and when the polls showed that the majority of Americans supported Bush's war.

Yes, Kucinich voted against it, but so did 2/3's of the House Democrats. Nancy Pelosi had more courage than Kucinich because she led that mutiny against Dick Gephardt. Nancy was the Minority Whip bucking the Minority Leader. Kucinich didn't lead that rebellion.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

48. Dean, October, 2002

Dean, whose advocacy of liberal domestic policies has struck a chord among grass-roots activists here, offered the sharpest dissent. He contended that Bush has yet to make a compelling case to justify going to war.

http://www.dre-mfa.gov.ir/eng/iraq/iraqanalysis_27.html

5 months before the war.

[virtualobserver]

60. and Kucinich was certainly effective.....

with his "legal efforts" . Dean's unwillingness to link himself to the futility of those efforts is a sign of intelligence.

[goodhue]

61. media choose candidate

Indeed, Dean's $$$ are directly derived from status as media darling. Decomcracy not at work. Who is this Kucinich of whom you speak? Never heard of him.

[killbotfactory]

22. Kerry spent more money than anybody so far...

But he hasn't really started... Uh... okay.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

24. Figures:

Dean

Total Receipts: $10,547,980
Total Spent: $4,144,109
Cash on Hand: $6,403,871
Debts: $321,826
Date of last report: June 30, 2003


Kerry

Total Receipts: $16,028,266
Total Spent: $5,100,458
Cash on Hand: $10,927,807
Debts: $178,662
Date of last report: June 30, 2003


http://www.opensecrets.org/presidential/summary.asp?ID=N00000245

[blm]

27. Yes. Kerry has been building a REAL

infrastructure that will be seen when it's ready. Not one the media has pushed.

And why should Dean spend more money when the corporate media is doing most of the promoting of his candidacy?

[indigo32]

34. are you saying Dean doesn't have an infastructure?

yeah right, all these people working for him...not an infastructure at all.
Kerry announces soon, the proof will be in the pudding, and truth told I've no objections to him. I just like Dean better.

BTW give up the whole Media is pushing Dean crap...it doesn't hold any water at all.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

36. Knowing that you're close to the campaign, I'll take your word.

Let's take your scenario that Kerry breaks out sometime after his announcement. He passes Dean in the polls and starts getting major media attention.

Question: In that scenario, will the corporate media then be doing Kerry's promoting? And will you attach the same perjorative to it?

[ProfessorPlum]

59. The 8 ball has the answer to your question . . .

:)

[polpilot]

49. Kerry's IMSD is ready to be unveiled!!!!!!! (Infrastructure of Mass Self-

Destruction)...pacing...pacing...holding back...holding back...pacing...pacing...marathon not a sprint...pacing...can take Dean out at any time!!!!! Taller than Dean...taller...pacing...pacing...did I mention taller...TALLER....TALLER...aaaghhhhhhh!!!!!!!!

Dean '04...

[George_Bonanza]

28. June 30th?

Is it possible that the figures might've changed since then?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

70. Yes. New figures will be out at end of next quarter.

Gotta work with what ya got.

[DJcairo]

30. You do realize these figures are town months old

Dean has since bought TV ads and will be showing news tv ads in six states next week. Kerry hasn't even announced and once he does the real fight starts. Try to remember that we are about the only people paying attention to the race right now.

[DJcairo]

29. That is absolutely not true!

Kerry has spent far less in fact. Dean just went on a multi-state tour which the NY Times estimated cost him around $200,000 plus he's been advertising on television for the last month in NH hence the high poll numbers. Kerry hasn't bought on TV ad.

Try not to lie to support your candidate.

[dsc]

32. Unless your candidate spent less

than 300k in this time we still are possibly correct. The difference between them is roughly 1.1 million in Kerry's favor. Dean spent 1.2 million on the things mentioned in your post. Thus they are now around 100k apart. Assuming rounding errors lets call it 300k. You owe Rummy an apology pony up.

[DJcairo]

42. Kerry has no TV ads

There is no way he has spent more.. He hasnt started advertising on TV

[dsc]

43. Every report that has been written on the TV ads

puts the cost at $1 million. You put the cost of his tour at 200k. That is $1.2 million last I checked. Even with rounding error that only barely makes up the previous lead your candidate has in spending. The figures were supplied by you.

[killbotfactory]

33. I think the lie would be...

That Kerry hasn't really started, when he clearly has, outspending everyone in the first two quarters.

[dsc]

37. Kerry is very well known in NH

due to his being a long serving Senator from the state where many New Hampshire residents get their news. Dean, on the other hand, was an unknown quantity there. He is by no means peaking too soon. I do wonder just how accurate the poll is given the difficulty in discerning just what the NH Primary electorate is going to be. But Dean is doing the right thing now.

[samurai_jack]

39. The important things to remember are:

(1)The attack ads haven't started
(2)Only two candidates are running any kind of television ads so far
(3)There are five months until IA & NH actually vote
(4)Dean is now the frontrunner and as such will be on the receiving end of ~$25 million in effectively anti-Dean TV and direct mail advertising.
(5)Bush is still president, which means an agenda-changing disaster is right around the corner.
(6)Nearly everything has gone right for the Dean campaign for the last several weeks. The campaign won't continue to defy murphy's law forever.

Dean deserves much (not all) of the accolades he receives, because has worked to achieve his current place. however, this nomination contest is far from over.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

40. Food for thought.

All good points.

[Larkspur]

41. Attack ads against Dean usually backfire and stir up his base

to donate more, so it will be interesting to see what kind of attack ads that Kerry, Gephardt, Lieberman, and Edwards use against Dean.

I do expect the poll numbers to fluctuate after Kerry announces, but the pressure is on Kerry now to exceed Dean's political showmanship. If Kerry flubs, his campaign will begin to follow Lieberman's to the bottom.

Dean was smart to take advantage of his opponents lull in campaigning. Of course, he didn't really have much choice, since he was behind in all the polls as of June 23, 2003. The fact that he is 21 pts ahead of Kerry at this point is truly AMAZING!

[DJcairo]

52. They won't need to attack when October's poll numbers show Kerry ahead

[UnapologeticLiberal]

47. Alright!

I read this today in the New York Times and I was shocked...Zogby is not always the most accurate polling service, but this is still great news!

[Duder]

50. Looking good...

Pollster John Zogby: “This is stunning. Dean’s surge seems to be at a heavy cost to Kerry, who led Dean in previous New Hampshire polling. Dean has also taken from Gephardt’s standing, and from the undecideds. His support is really across the board … both Congressional districts, men and women, Democrats and independents, liberals and moderates. He’s the candidate to watch at the top of the scale, while some of those down the line might re-think their candidacy at this point.”

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=729

[DJcairo]

53. You think Bob Shrum and Chris Lehane are going down

without a fight. Think again. These guys are smart and way more experienced than your Dean handles. it will be interesting to see how and when they make a mistake - I mean, the handles in general - and who makes one first.

[Larkspur]

54. Oh, they'll fight, but it will feed Dean's lead

Dean has built momentum and passed Kerry a long time ago. The polls are just catching up to reality.

Kerry's war vote and the continuing disintegration of Iraq into chaos will only make him look impotent and a fool.

[DJcairo]

57. Excuse me but your guy didn't have a vote in the Senate and he isn't a vet

[babzilla]

62. thanks for the news flash

most Dean supporters know that he's not a Senator or a vet, but we want him to be president anyway because his stance on the Iraq war makes sense.

O/T In honor of Bob Shrum and Chris Lehane, you might want to update the campaign news link on your site because the John Kerry news trove has been overtaken by articles about Dean's double-digit lead in the NH polls.

[virtualobserver]

69. and your guy voted yes.....

on quagmire.

[virtualobserver]

63. I lost respect for Shrum in Gore 2000

It caused me to lose a tiny bit of respect for Kerry when he chose Shrum.

Shrum couldn't fight his way out of a paper bag.

[George_Bonanza]

55. Remember that back in '88

Gephardt was like at 6% in Iowa with a few months to go in the Iowan primary, and he won that state.

Also in '88, Bush was trailing Dukakis by over 20 points in NH or some state, I believe, with only 3 months to go, and he won it.

Anything can happen. Leads are good if you can maintain them. However, a lot of people don't know Kerry other than what the media has thrown at them, which isn't a lot. So far, all they have read is Dean in Newsweek and Dean in Time. For example, at a political forum I went to, somebody thought that Kerry was governor of Mass., and this was a politically aware person. Kerry's a candidate you really have to know, because he won't offer empty soundbytes or flashy gimmicks. Instead, he lets his life story do the talking for him, coupled with a strong sense of direction, compassion, and thoughtfulness.

[helleborient]

71. We're waiting...

You say

"Kerry's a candidate you really have to know"

No one in the electorate has an obligation to get to know Kerry...he has to come to the electorate...and now he has to take away support from Dean to win NH.

If he can do that, it will indeed be an exciting campaign...but some of us are getting tired of being told to wait, we want to campaign against Bush NOW!!

[tedoll78]

66. Wait a sec.. an important point:

One big thing about how Dean got his lead was when and how he announced his campaign. He did it a few months ago when no one else was doing the same. Thus, he didn't have to share any media attention for his announcement.

Now, in September, we'll have Kerry, Edwards, Graham, Gephardt, maybe Clark, et al announcing their respective runs for the office. My point? They'll all have to compete for media attention with each other, with each announcement closely arranged to someone else's. They'll be basically stepping on each others' toes.

Oh, and there's a California recall going on. That certainly has been sucking-up much of the air and time from political coverage.

Dean timed his announcement properly.. waaay apart from the rest. An excellent move on Joe Trippi's part. Now we get to sit-back and watch the others compete with each other for media space. That, and Dean's "frontrunner" status will allow for more media appearances of his own..