Viable Democratic Nominee

[Razorback1]

Does anyone think Howard Dean is a viable candidate? Is nominating Dean going to isolate the moderate Dems into voting for bush?

[Cheswick2.0]

1. more likely to mobilize the liberal democrats to vote third party

when he reveals what a centrist he is. If he is the democratic candidate he will get my time to work on his campaign, however I am not buying the idea that he is liberal.

[Razorback1]

2. Dean's Liberal Policies

Increased practically every tax in Vermont and legalized Gay Marriage

Sounds Liberal to me and probabally to most Southern Dems

[caledesi]

5. He has not legalized Gay Marriage. Where are you getting your info?

HD instituted Same Sex Unions...not marriage bec he thinks that all Americans should have equal rights (ability to visit a loved one in hospital while not being a relative; ability to received inheritance etc). Sounds to me as though you don't know anything about HD.

Go to www.deanforamerica.com

He's difficult to "label" and that's what driving the Repugs crazy. He's got an "A" rating from the NRA. Does that sound like a liberal to you?

He is fiscally responsible like most liberals, unlike red-ink republicans.

[ErasureAcer]

11. If Howard Dean truly believed in equal rights...

he would have the government uphold the first amendment and the homosexual community to be recognized with marriage as their religion allows. There are plenty of gay churches out there, that would love to have weddings for the gay community that attend mass each sunday. Truly now, if Dean TRULY believes in equality...he would have gay marriage on his platform...but he doesn't...so he doesn't believe in equality.

Dennis Kucinich on the other hands DOES support equality. He supports gay marriage and will do everything in his power to grant the homosexual community their first amendment right to practice their religion, including marriage...in full force.

Mr. Dean is wrong. This is a NATIONAL issue...for it involves the constitution. Only Kucinich is going to rectify this injustice in our society.

Take our country back from the half-truth talking liars who proclaim themselves as the "democratic wing of the democratic party."

SUPPORT DENNIS KUCINICH FOR PRESIDENT.
www.kucinich.us

The heir apparent to Martin Luther King Jr's vision for an America that believes in equality, justice and peace.

Kucinich is the true Democrat. Dean is a scared man who likes to play politics while denying people their just equality and first amendment right.

[caledesi]

24. Dean scared? Puhleeze...He sure doesn't look it.

He just took in a cool million from 17,000+ support, of which 10,000 were FIRST TIME contributors.

Yeah, he's shaking all the way to the bank.

[eileen from OH]

28. How is "marriage as their religion allows" different

than being for civil unions that are legally acknowledged and let every church decide what it wants to do? Which is (DUH) Dean's position. Right now, marriage is a religious AND civil instrument. Dean wants to legalize the latter and allow churches to handle the former as they wish.

You say that "Dennis Kucinich supports gay marriage and will do everything in his power to grant the homosexual community their first amendment right to practice their religion, including marriage...in full force."

Does that mean that it's a violation of their First Amendment rights if churches won't perform gay marriage?

I say the Feds and the states have no goddam right to force any religion to recognize gay marriage. I say keep religion out of it. Make it a legal, civil issue and it has legs.

I'm from Northeast Ohio and have watched the Kucinich self-promotion ego machine first hand. (I wasn't going to say this but it's late.)

eileen from OH

[eileen from OH]

13. It's semantics, I know

but it's important semantics. Dean did NOT legalize Gay Marriage, nor he did he institute Same Sex Unions. He signed a bill legalizing CIVIL UNIONS. Both "gay marriage" and "same sex unions" carry a whole lot of baggage and make many Americans uneasy. On the other hand, many of the same Americans can accept "civil unions". It implies a legal partnership, wholly outside of any kind of "marriage."

eileen from OH

[Razorback1]

15. Southern Dems wont see a difference-more from Newsweek

Dean makes a point that civil unions are “not marriage” and that the whole issue is none of the federal government’s business. But he concedes the issue will hurt him in the South, where polls show him trailing the president by larger margins than other Democrats. Merle Black, a political-science professor at Atlanta’s Emory University, says Southerners would have “no use for him at all” and predicts that many Democratic officeholders in the region would fail to campaign with him. But Black thinks the problem is more stylistic than related to his position on particular issues: “He’s a New Yorker. He’s very aggressive. For voters who are not ideological, they look at candidates and see if they think he’s a nice guy. I don’t think Dean is that nice guy.”

[Mairead]

35. Well, if southern 'Dems' see *Dean* as 'too liberal', then

I have to question their self-labelling. It sounds about as accurate as me calling myself a Republican.

[Razorback1]

38. Southern Dems

have always been more conservative than the rest of the country. Ifv you want proof of where a Dean Candidacy could go; Ask Walter Mondale how he fared in the south!

[poskonig]

39. Mary Landrieu just won LA by running to the *left*.

We in the Dean campaign are going to put as many states as possible into play, including the south.

[caledesi]

23. Eileen, I stand corrected...Civil Unions....got confused in my anger!

[poskonig]

40. Dean cut taxes in Vermont several times.

Painting Dean as a Mondale isn't going to work. The difference is that Dean cuts taxes fairly and responsibly, while Bush merely loots for corporate and wealthy contributors.

Besides, on taxes v social spending polls, the Democrats have an overwhelming advantage, so this GOP attack isn't going to fly.

[ErasureAcer]

6. especially when he says he isn't liberal.

Dean said it himself...he isn't one. He is a moderate and that my friends isn't good enough. I agree, he is going to alienate the real "democratic wing of the democratic party" if he is nominated and make many people, myself included vote for the Greens.

I want a liberal in office damn it, I want Kucinich.
www.kucinich.us

[tedoll78]

8. Sing along with me..

"I want the world!
I want the whole world!
I want to lock it
all up in my pocket.
It's MY bar of chocolate!
Give it to me -
NOW."

...

"Don't care how -
I want it noooooooooowww...."

*HONK HONK*

[Jim Sagle]

9. So work to get him nominated. If it happens, fine.

If not, tough.

[DuctapeFatwa]

3. No, his foreign policy is virtually identical to Bush

He makes a big deal out of utilizing the UN rubric more than bush, which is terrific for domestic consumption, but the rest of the world does not really perceive the UN as a separate entity, so the effect, the essential policy, would remain unchanged, and the more conservative voters understand that.

His hardline pro-Sharon policy on the Middle East will appeal to the religious right, who are having some "anyone but bush" fits of their own.

Most importantly, he will get AIPAC money, and big corporate money, and whoever has the most money wins, that's how the game is played.

Karl Rove likes him, AIPAC likes him, and if bush continues to sink in the polls, PNAC may well decide to throw Clark over the side and give Dean the anchor job.

After all, from their point of view, the best thing about putting bush in front of the camera in the first place is because bush is nothing if not disposable, and though they are far from needing to dispose of him at this point, the fact is that this far into the plan, there are just some things that they cannot control, some events that they cannot predict.

Contrary to what many think, the strategy is an overall plan, not the matrix! :D

edit to clarify I mean no I dont think he would isolate. It is too soon at this point to say who is viable and who is not, the big money boys are not sufficiently monogamous at this stage of the game to declare viability.

[Jim Sagle]

10. Prosemites like his foreign policy. Sorry 'bout that.

[caledesi]

4. Howard Dean has tapped into the HUGE Democratic base

that was formerly apathetic and silent. Viable? You bet. HD is not only a candidate; he's a movement!

[Razorback1]

14. Dem pollsters Speak out in Newsweek

“A Dean nomination could again Democrats lose 49 out of 50 states,” says Clinton’s pollster, Mark Penn, who is working for Sen. Joe Lieberman’s campaign. (The 2000 vice presidential candidate is currently leading in national surveys, based mostly on name recognition.) “Dean’s antiwar image will linger and will be used against him,” predicts Jim Jordan, Kerry’s campaign manager. “This ‘security mom’ thing is real. Women are even more hawk-ish than men. Until you can convince the voters that you, too, can keep the country safe, you don’t get heard on the other stuff.” Can Dean beat Bush? “Absolutely impossible,” says Jordan.

[caledesi]

19. These are folks from the candidates that are BEHIND.

Hello? What do you think they are going to say? Oh yeah, HD is a winner! I think not.

BTW, Joe Trippi disagrees.

[unfrigginreal]

26. I haven't heard Clinton say anything negative about Dean yet...

and I'm a HUGE supporter of Clintons'. So let Mark Penn talk for Lieberman, the guy he's currently working for. If and when Clinton has something negative to say about Dean, then to be honest, I'll see that as a negative against Clinton. That won't be easy for me.

[PAMod]

31. Cannibalism

What are these pollsters going to say, a year from now, if (when?) Dean is the nominee, and they (the pollsters) are supposedly trying to elect him?

Should candidates let their minions say anything to get votes, even if it helps torpedo the eventual nominee later?

I don't know, I'm really asking. Maybe I'm naive, but electability is in the eye of the beholder at this early stage. I remember Clinton, Reagan & Carter were "unelectable" too in the early going.

Maybe they are talking out loud to see if anyone is listening to them. Apparently no one is, at least for now.

People on DU get upset when posters attack other candidates as unelectable or unDemocratic, whatever - in these cases we have actual campaign staff mouthing off - from two camps that are, at least at this point, dead in the water.

Does desperation justify cannibalism?

[poskonig]

41. Dean will win at minimum 150 electoral votes.

There is no way we are going to lose Massachusettes, California, New York, Illinois, etc. etc. It is not going to happen. Period.

The question is if Dean can win the Gore states (including Michigan and Pennsylvania) plus one or two more (Florida, WV and Nevada, etc.). I believe his 'A' rating from the NRA puts him over the edge.

[tedoll78]

7. I've heard both theories. (And I think turnout is still our key.)

He'll run-off the "middle".. he's "too conservative" or "GOP-lite." It remains to be seen.

I'm not sure if I'm reflective of his supporters or not, but here's my case. I'm a liberal with a capital "L." I know that he has positions all over the political spectrum, and despite the disagreements, I support him anyway because I think he can win. We agree enough, and I'm not going to be a Political Veruca Salt. Political Veruca Salts want the world - they want the whole world - they'll never get it, and they'll never, ever be politically happy. Sad souls.

Now, how do I think he'll win? He says it in pretty much every speech he gives: bringing some of the 50% who don't vote back to the process. At most Dean MeetUps, 1/2 to 2/3 there will tell you that they're new to the political process. Most pundits will agree: next year will be close. Bush's numbers are lower than his father's were at this point in 1991. And sure, Dean may be 10 to 15% behind him in the polls right now, but Gore was also behind by such far margins for much of late 1999 and early 2000; we're consistently underpolled.

Where I'm going with this.. I think the nation is still divided about 50/50.
50 million will be the typical Bush vote.
50 million will be the typical Dem vote.
If Dean is our nominee, he could raise turnout in our favor by as much as 10%. And even if it's a mere 3 or 4% (3 or 4 million more voters going into the Dean column), it's statistically near-impossible for him to lose in the Electoral College.

What I'll be watching very closely in early 2004 are the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries. If turnout does indeed go up in these two, and if that turnout is linked to strong Dean victories, I think we may be tapping into that above increased-turnout scenario. If that extra 3 or 4% does indeed materialize for us, it'll bring coattails with it. That's a serious scenario for all of us to consider, and Dean is the only one I see currently who can bring it into reality.

[unfrigginreal]

12. I do!

Dean is an independent thinker...he will not couch his politics as Democratic or Republican, but what's best for America. Yeah, most of his positions fall in line with the Democratic Party but why wouldn't they? We are the just Party, aren't we?

The Washington insiders will do everything in their power to proclaim him an anti-war candidate. That is an out and out LIE. He supported the first Gulf War and the actions in Afghanistan.

When(if) this guy gets more face time with the general public then he'll pick up even more support. The Washington insiders just don't get that WE'RE TIRED OF BUSINESS AS USUAL.

I've been a moderately strong supporter of Dean from the beginning...my support has turned into donations toward his campaign...and my support while still not 100% is awful damned close.

And yes, I consider myself a moderate.

[caledesi]

20. UFR! You are so right. Anti-war, librul, blah blah....lies.

I am an Independent and I am solidly behind Dean.

[fabius]

16. Dean is about as moderate as Clinton.

The big difference is he does not owe his candidacy to the DLC and the corporate money, and so he will listen to "We the people" for a bloody change.

The Powers that Be are trying to smear him and represent him as some kind of extremist because they don't control him.

He is a Populist, which is a bit different from a true Liberal. In this case that's good for our side, because he can mobilize a lot of the disaffected non-voters. Which as noted above in this thread will be the key to winning!

[caledesi]

21. Amen!

[loyalsister]

27. Populist and progressive in the truest senses

He's all over the map. He thinks things through without necessarily considering the left special interests. He has listened to people without considering if they are a special interest in his party who will fund or endorse his campaign. He thinks about things in terms of realities, likelihoods, and and probabilities.
People with a large variety of views feel represented by him, thus some people feel that he doesn't represent them quite enough. Haven't we been complaining about singular views being represented, and the pukes marching lock step lately?
His vision is for incremental progress as opposed to revolutionary shake-up. Many moderates are attracted to this careful measured approach and it seems that most are comfortable with incremental policy change.

[fabius]

17. Re: Kucinich

I think he's great and I gave him a hundred bucks but I see Dean's organization is (1) truly grassroots and (2) EFFECTIVE!

You gotta have organization to win. Kucinich and Kerry both are great I think but they will have to really crank it up to prove to me they can beat Shrub.

[JohnKleeb]

18. fablus thanks but many of the anti war people are firmly in your camp

its still august too but youre ok at least you dont deny him respect.

[caledesi]

22. We have a lot of great candidates and I think most of them

could beat *. I mean there is SO much ammo to use against him.

What the hell has he done, but totally ruin this country.

Oh, I forgot...the Amber Alert! Wooo Hoo!

[JohnKleeb]

25. exactly plenty of ammo

Its gonna be hard to pluck those anti war people out of your camp, and frankly its unfortunate.

[sandnsea]

29. He *could* lose everybody

He could lose the liberal vote when they realize he's much more moderate than they think he is. He isn't going to push for civil unions, medical marijuana, anti-war policies, a true health care plan for all, repealing the patriot act and whatever else they think he stands for.

At the same time, he could lose the moderate vote because of the perception of his civil unions position, anti-war position and repealing the entire tax cut.

He could actually end up losing everybody, which ought to be a real concern.

[Ishkaboogl]

34. that's the risk you take by being in the middle

if you pander to everyone you either get everyone or no one. right now he's getting moderates and liberals, but whether he can maintain that electoral coalition remains to be seen.

i just want to point out that i believe that no democrat can win unless they are in the middle. that was true in 92, and its true now. probably more so, because the gop controls everything, so they are seen as mainstream. being the opposition, it will be harder for us to push bush out of the perceived middle. his extremist policies help, though.

[burr]

30. It depends on the war and the economy...

If the state of the economy continues to worsen, then independants and moderates in differents regions will give Dean a boost. If the situation in Iraq worsens, this will also boost support for Dean in every region except for the south. This is why Democrats need to approach this election differently than did Clinton or Carter, who were able to win in many southern states.

The traditional base of Democrats in the south is avidly pro-war, but what used to be traditional Republican bases could now become voting bases for Dean.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

32. I don't think so

I used to worry about this a lot, but I went to the Irish Pub the night the DLC was in Philly and I met a lot of the delegates, and a lot of them seemed receptive despite what their leaders said. So I am feeling better about Dean's chances of capturing more of the center AND moving the center further to the left by bringing in new voters.

-----------------------------
Buy my grassroots Dean merchandise:

[genius]

33. Bush can easily take out Dean and that's why Rove is backing Dean

A lot of people are watching the Dean people fall all over themselves, refusing to look at what is going on with Dean's campaign. This is not a bash. But if the Dean people don't want a big fall, they should start by looking at how Dean's campaign is being financed. They should find out the facts for themselves because they would never accept the truth if someone told them. I'm sure Bush is looking at this matter.

[Rose Siding]

36. I'll bet

that when Rove said "I want Dean!", that's the only time you ever believed him. How were you able to divine that of all the vile lies spewing forth from KKKarl, that he was telling you *exactly* what he meant?

[poskonig]

42. Republicans encouraged support of Gray Davis in 1998.

They thought he would be the easiest to beat. It backfired. Mindless reacting is *never* a substitute for collected thinking.

[dean4america]

37. yes, he is

he not only IS a viable candidate, he's probably the one most likely to win. forget the nonsense about who Rove wants - if Dean gets the nomination -- and we actually have fair elections -- Dean WILL win. if the elections are set up with touch screens, etc., then it won't matter who runs against Bush.