Free Fall- TNR on Kerry/Dean

[Rose Siding]

John Kerry's advisers often talk about the presidential race turning into a two-tiered contest. "Structurally, the race is absolutely tiered," says Jim Jordan, Kerry's campaign manager. The idea is that Howard Dean and Kerry are in the top tier, and the rest of the field is stuck in relative obscurity in the second. "There's a very strong likelihood that the nominee will be either us or Dean," says Jordan. There is a good reason Jordan describes the race this way. Dean is now the front-runner, and the fight is on to define his main challenger. But what may be emerging is actually a different sort of two-tiered race: one where Kerry sinks into the second tier with his four fellow Washington legislators.

The Kerry campaign looks a little bit like a 1990s tech stock whose paper profits are slowly being unmasked as accounting gimmicks. Just a few months ago, other campaigns fretted about Kerry delivering a knockout punch in Iowa and New Hampshire that would end the race. Kerry aides could recite from memory statistics showing how the early front-runner in presidential primaries usually ended up as the party's nominee. The senator hired the most talented Democratic political consultants, lined up the earliest endorsements, and turned out the biggest crowds. But, now, as he embarks on a two-day swing through South Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts on September 2 and 3, Kerry is slipping out of the top tier altogether.

http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?pt=ywExiYatC5xrI7N5sremMA==

[blm]

1. Heh...we'll see.

Won't we?

[ModerateMiddle]

2. it's an interesting challenge

to meet.

Most of the "establishment" candidates were running traditional campaigns, and Dean has run anything but, which is to his credit. It's hard to know at this point if the damage which has been done to these traditionalists can be "undone". I liked that Kerry was working in the background, establishing the required resources and building support... this is what I felt a President should do - plan, plan, plan and be ready for "rolling out" whatever program.

I do think that the "new" message - "some in my party are so angry" is a good start - pointing out that anger isn't what is required to lead our country.

As I do not want to see Dean be our party's nominee, I hope Kerry can get it together. This next month will be telling.

[molly]

3. I hope everyone will watch Kerry on MTP tomorrow

[clar]

4. I wouldn't miss it

I'm sure he'll present himself well.

[Cocoa]

5. I still see Kerry as the front-runner

I think the Dean phenomenon is significant, but I also think it is being exaggerated, mainly because Dean hasn't connected with me yet. I haven't yet listened to Dean and understood where his supporters' enthusiasm is coming from, so in the back of my mind I suspect it's somewhat hollow.

I could be wrong, of course. I didn't understand Clinton's appeal during his first primary campaign, but it turned out to be real.

But I'm seeing people like David Brooks and Frank Luntz talk Dean up as the guy to beat and I see red flags. With these two guys, you have to assume that it is NOT an honest analysis, that it's the analysis that favors the republicans.

And these republican pundits also avoid saying much about Kerry, and when they are forced to comment on him I sense fear, so I think they see Kerry as the real threat.

[Larkspur]

7. Dean's campaign is about Hope and Empowering the average American, us,

Dean's campaign is Dean For America, not Dean for President. That semantic tactic was intentional because Dean's campaign is about The Great American Restoration -- restoring America back to it's founding ideals. This is why Deanocrats are excited about Howard Dean.

[Cocoa]

11. that's a very good message

but I hear it in all the candidates, whenever they criticize Bush.

I've heard exactly that very good rhetoric from at least Lieberman and Gephardt. I think I've heard each of these two say something like "let's take America back!" And it's inspiring whenever I hear it.

I don't remember hearing Dean say it. Not denying for a second that that is his message, I'm saying I don't associate that feeling with him, let alone exclusively with him.

[tedoll78]

13. Every time I hear something like..

"taking America back," I get flashbacks to the rally in Austin. At the end, he began to scream near the tops of his lungs, "YOU have the power to take this country back! YOU have the power! YOU have the power!" And screaming while pointing at different folks in the audience, he extended his "You"s for extra emphasis. "YOOUUU..!"

I was about fifteen feet away from him, and I'll never forget it. The crowd was screaming so loudly that I could feel the ground below me and the air around me vibrating. Intense.

[polpilot]

14. That's simply it. A statesman restoring the country.

Dean '04

[killbotfactory]

6. Kerry's going to stress his 'Nam credentials even more?

They can't be serious.

"I didn't watch my buddies die face down in the muck so that someone else could be president!" "Over the line, Dean! Mark it zero!"

And I hope they don't seriously believe Dean's campaign is all about anger, because it's not. Rebuilding the sense of community, regaining the USA's former respect in the world, health care for all americans, etc... are not about anger, they're about hope and empowerment.

[virtualobserver]

10. this "all about anger" spin....

only works on people who haven't heard Dean speak.
As Dean is heard, his popularity will grow.

It certainly has given me hope.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

8. Judging by the crowds...

I'm not sure Kerry should be so quick to place himself in that upper tier...

We'll see if MTP gets them out in the streets.

Judge the candidates by the street. Everthing else is just speculation, wishful thinking and pure-dee fertilizer.

[GalleryGod]

9. Like the 2 million that were in the streets for McGovern Rallies in '72

Coast-to-Coast in the last 2 weeks of October,1972.
:hippie: How'd that work out on the first Tuesday in November?
:wow:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

12. Are you saying that we were wrong? McGovern was the right choice.

Since it happened 31 years ago, it will happen exactly the same way. I'm filling out my Lotto card...peg the numbers that I need and then I'll take your visions with a sense of import.

Fill in the blanks:


___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ (I play 6/49 in Washington if I have an extra buck)



Awaiting your reply. They draw on Monday. I'll give you 50% of the take.

[George_Bonanza]

15. Just because Dean sounds mad

What's so special about Dean, that he'll empower the American citizen, more so than any other candidate? Hmm? Please back this statement up with credible proof.

How many candidates have promised to let the average American be heard? How many have pulled through? What makes Dean so special? His internet campaigning? It's a good campaign, but it's just a campaign, not a telltale sign of policy. Because he went against the grain a few times in Vermont? Well, I can think of a couple of incidents when Kerry went against even bigger grain in an even bigger arena.

[Cha]

16. I can think of a time when Kerry went against his supporters

and voted to give bush the power to attack Iraq!

[budmo]

17. and my question is...

what's so special about Kerry?

My mother lived in Mass. up until last year(I did too in my earlier years) and when I asked her about Kerry she said as far as she could tell, in all the years he's been reping Mass. she's never heard of one thing the guys done for mass. It's usually Kennedy who is visably pursuing agenda's for Mass. and she said he's never really accompished much except marry a really wealthy socialite-which put him in an upper tier of visability. I just watch these campaigns and I don't like the entitled additude of him and a couple of others. The thing that's so heart warming about Dean is his humility about where he is verses where he' thought he'd be by now (very diiferent places).
I just don't think Kerry has the strengh and fire in the belly that's needed to crush Bush.