CNN/Gallop Polls one day after Labor Day

[Nicholas_J]

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Aug. 25-26, 2003. N=397 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered to vote. MoE ± 5.
.

"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2004. . . ."

8/25-26/03 8/4-6/03 7/25-27/03
% % %
Joe Lieberman 23 18 21
Dick Gephardt 13 15 16
Howard Dean 12 15 11
John Kerry 10 12 15
John Edwards 5 5 6
Carol Moseley Braun 5 5 6
Bob Graham 4 5 4
Al Sharpton 4 4 5
Wesley Clark 2 n/a n/a
Dennis Kucinich 1 2 2
Other 2 4 -
No one 7 5 2
No opinion 12 10 12

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Lieberman is far ahead of all other candidates outside of the margin of error

P.S.

In this last period, Deans drop in the national polls is the highest.of the top tier candidates Liberman exceeds all candidates by much more than the margin of error.

P.P.S.

I guess becasue the polls show Dean in a falling stance, these polls will not be considered valid, though polls about Dean are always held up as being correct.

[Kolesar]

1. that will change n/t

[virtualobserver]

12. I believe that in a general sense, this is accurate

But I'm not very impressed with Gallup. too much fluctuation in their polls.

[On the Road]

2. Boy, Those Numbers are So Far from My Experience

I mean, it's really difficult to believe this picture of the average Dem voter. Lieberman adding to his old base by over 1/3? Moseley-Braun tied with Edwards and higher than Clark, Sharpton, and Kucinich?

And where is Dean's support going? Certainly not to Leiberman.

[renie408]

7. YEAH!!

I get freaked out every time those kinds of numbers come out. Who are these mysterious Lieberman supporters??

[AP]

11. I think Carol must get lots of votes from men and women who

have no idea who she is just because she is the only woman.

I can't count the number of times in my life when I went with the woman for the reason of gender alone when I couldn't find anything else that distinguised the candidate. I've done that with race too. I have thought, well, if all else is equal, clearly this woman has had to go through more shit to reach the same point.

So I'm not surprised with Carol's numbers.

[gottaB]

17. What's so hard to believe?

If you are a political junkie you know that every Washington correspondent and his dog has been dismissing Braun and predicting she would drop out within the next two weeks--and this has been going on since March. Well, every time the question of her viability is put to her, she insists that she's in it for the long haul, and points to national polls where she does better than putative top tier candidates. Well, who are you going to believe: The press corps who refuse to challenge CW despite contravening facts, or the canidate with the proven track record of not giving up?

If your thinking this poll is screwy because it doesn't match up with polls you've seen from early primary states, then consider the various sources of bias, keep in mind that Braun hasn't targetted these states much at all yet, while the others have been going like gangbusters and getting local media attention. Personally, I trust Gallup, as far as any polling outfit goes.

(As for Lieberman's "bounce," it's within the MOE so he may not have gained any support in the last month. The whole thing is relatively flat since July, imo, even Dean's "slide.")

[UnapologeticLiberal]

3. But the change is within the margin

He is up 5 points from last time, but the margin of error is ±5, so there may have been no change or not much change from the last time they did this poll.

[burr]

4. Time to panick???

maybe the DLC won't need Clark afterall...
:cry:

[ProfessorPlum]

5. Well, it looks like Lieberman is it

with only six months to go before someone actually gets enough delegates, it is Lieberman by a mile!

[renie408]

8. Hey

That sounds like the rest of us whenever anybody talks about the momentum that Dean has built up!

BUT... I will say that these numbers actually make things look BETTER for Dean to me. They refute the 'peaking too soon' thing and the 'early leaders never win' thing. So maybe Lieberman is peaking too soon and, as an early leader, won't win.

[CMT]

6. oh No!!

Lieberman is sure to be the nominee and Dean (who lost 3-points) and Kerry (who lost two-points) are sure to fade. Just kidding.

I see you can't post anything without some kind of anti-Dean slant to it ("because the polls show Dean in falling stance, these polls will not be considered valid."), but the polls will be up and down--and all over the place.

[Nicholas_J]

14. Yup

Whenver Dean goes up in the polls against someone, Deanies attack their supporters and crow about Deans supremacy..they ALWAYS do. Turnaround is fair play.

[damnraddem]

9. Why the small sample size?

It is small for a Gallup poll.

If this truly does reflect the Dem Party, and continues to, this will show in the primaries. If the Dems go Lieberman, I will write the party off. Dubya will win for the first time. Then we can go about the business of building a real party for Americans.

But let's wait and see. Take a look at all of the polls listed -- which are more accurate?

[CMT]

16. It won't be Lieberman imo

He is way down in Iowa and NH polls and if he can't get off to a strong start in either of those states I don't think he will have momentum later on. It could change, but I just don't think Lieberman appeals to the democrats who show up and vote in primaries and caucuses.

[Nicholas_J]

19. Clinton

Lost BOTH Iowa and N.H.

Leading most political pollsters to belelve that these states are no longer the representatives of middle america any more, and that the Power has shited to the Super Tuesday States.

[dsc]

20. Every campaign conceeded Iowa

to Tom Harkin that year. He is from Iowa as I would hope you know. So he didn't lose it.

[ISUGRADIA]

23. Please check out newspapers of the time

Clinton's 2nd place in the NH gave him the title of the comeback kid, gave him the big MO. His showing helped propel him to the nomination. Iowa meant squat that year and was written off by all the candidates because of Harkin.

The winners of IA and NH may not get the nomination, but the top three finishers in each will be the contenders, the lower ones will likely not.

[onehandle]

10. If we believed the polls at this time in 1991....

The Democratic Nominee would have been Mario Cuomo. Clinton was nearly dead last.

[Nicholas_J]

15. THe same was even more true of

THe person out fron in New Hampsire and Iowa, so this means the fronrunner there as well, is likely to lose thiese states.

[TSIAS]

13. Looks like a lot of candidates lost ground

Even Kerry. Gephardt and Kerry lost 2 compared to Dean's 3.

[arcos]

18. Dean dropped 3, Kerry dropped 2...

both within the 5 point margin of error. It is probably accurate.

Your point it?

[dsc]

21. BTW Liebermans lead isn't outside the MOE

Gephardt could have support as high as 18% and Lieberman could be as low as 18%. Thus they could be tied which makes that differential within the margin of error. Please get a refund from your stats professor as you show not even a basic understanding of statistics.

[Ediacara]

22. and Dean is STILL higher than kerry....

imagine that...

[RevolutionStartsNow]

24. Dean in a "falling stance"? LOL!

Can you say "wishful thinking"?

Like other national polls at this point, both Lieberman and Gephardt are benefitting from their previous national exposure. I think this poll reconfirms that Kerry and Dean are right up there. Both of them. They both dropped a couple of points since the last version of this poll, but within MOE, so it seems to be no change.

Dean's in this one for the long haul, Nick, better get used to it.

Can't wait for Meetup tomorrow...