Ipsos/Cook Political Report Poll:

[Nicholas_J]

Ipsos/Cook Political Report Poll: Swing Voters For 2004 Presidential Election Believe Iraq Was Worth Fighting, But Doubt Bush’s Evidence About Weapons Of Mass Destruction And Doubt Bush’s Economic Plan
Between July 8-10, 2003, and July 22-24, 2003, Ipsos-Public Affairs interviewed for the Cook Political Report a representative sample of 2,000 adult Americans nationwide, including 1,520 registered voters. The margin of error for the combined surveys is ± 2.2% for all adults, ± 2.5% for registered voters.


Washington, D.C. — In interviews with 1,520 registered voters conducted July 8-10, 2003, and July 22-24, 2003, the Ipsos-Public Affairs/Cook Political Report Poll finds the 2004 Presidential election taking shape as a key group of swing voters emerge. These swing voters:
Believe that the war with Iraq was worth fighting;
Believe the Bush Administration intentionally exaggerated its evidence that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction; and,
Are extremely negative about Bush’s handling of the economy and other domestic issues.

http://www.ipsos-reid.com/media/dsp_displaypr.prnt.cfm?ID_to_view=1873

Support for war in Iraq should be a critical key for getting swing voters in 2004. WHich maay explain Liebermans rise in the latest Gallop polls which places him twice that polls margin of error over the nearest candidate

[burr]

1. This is the real question...

will Democrats move the polls, or will they just move with changing polls?

People think Iraq should of been occupied because 54% of Americans think that a major terrorist attack will occur within the next few weeks, and these terrorists were being armed and commanded by Saddamm. They presently fear terrorist attacks from Iran and even North Korea.

I do agree that economic issues will be what unifies Democrats, and this is what Democrats must focus on. But as more soldiers die in attacks, support for this war has dropped dramatically. It would take an act of God to reverse the anarchy in Iraq, meaning that this support will continue to decrease..not rise.

[Nicholas_J]

5. As the Nerw Hampshire Union Leader indicated recently

Most New Hampshre polls do a total reversal from between labor day and Christmas.

National polls are more of an indicator, as after all, the nation votes for the president, not one state.

Looking to the recent past, Clinton lost both Iowa and New Hampshire, but spent eight years in the oval office.

Every non-incumbent democrat who was at the top of the Iowa and New Hampshire polls on labor day only entered it as a visitor.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

6. In other words:

Kerry leads by 50%.

[burr]

8. So...

if it is the state primaries you want to talk about, lets discuss some state polls.

Public opinion may not change before Christmas, but that is when we will know if shrub is vunerable. It took about six months for George the first to lose the support he gained during the Gulf War. Alot can happen in six months. How many more soldiers will die between now and Christmas? I don't dodging responsibility only works for so long in tight situations. Either solve them, or get out! The public doesn't respond well to excuses, and exceeding this level of tolerance for excuses is more destructive to a politician's career than the mistakes being excused.

Just look at 9/11, nobody blamed shrub for being weak on defense. But this is because a second attack has not yet occured.

[AP]

7. What more can Democrats do to move the polls?

We had huge protests before the war, and we have what's going on in the UK, and then we have Dean all over the major media with his anti-war talk. If this swing group is forming and isn't being persuaded by Dean and the huge protests, what more do you want to see?

Face it, when the issue can be construed in any form as a national defense issue, you're going to have a hard time finding a majority of Americans who are against the US acting agressively to defend itself from real or imaginary threats.

Soldiers dying now raises questions about execution and not instigation. The instigation debate is over. Now, let the execution debate proceed. (And I should note that I don't think there's very much daylight between any of the candidates on the question of what comes next -- but I could be wrong).

[burr]

9. As PB99 puts it, keep on truckin...

These polls may show support for the war in Iraq, but they also show a shift in public opinion. Voters who believed shrub on WMD now think he lied. Almost twice as many think this occupation is wrong than those polled two months ago. People are now having second thoughts.

There is a group of people who support the war..just to support the troops. But these people also have problems with more troops dying, and little info about it. The message should be...that we can best support out troops by pulling them out of Iraq, allowing the Iraqis to freely build the democracy which our soldiers fought and died for, and repealing paycuts and cuts in VA benefits enacted by shrub.

We will win these people step by step, as support for the war declines. But when they turn against shrub, it will happen like a mighty avalanche. But this needs to be a partywide effort, not unorganized protests by a few anti-war students. The ice is melting, but we now have to make some noise..not stand in the way.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. But all polls are bullshit!

Right?

[Evanstondem]

3. evanston dem

Not bullshit, but they may be becoming less reliable as the number of people refusing to answer telephone polls continues to increase. As a result, I am skeptical of any single poll that is out of line with the bulk of other recent polling results.

The latest Gallup poll is one of those outliers.

[ISUGRADIA]

4. National Polls Mean Little at this Point

as compared to the polls in key early primary states. Lieberman is back in the pack in NH and IA and not much better in many of the other early primary season states. Once he comes in 4th or 5th in IA and NH they'll be pressure to drop out, money will be tight, and he'll need a win. A poor showing in SC and he's pretty much out of the race.

[dsc]

10. Would you please

either a) learn how MOE's work or b) refrain in entirety from using that term. For the millionth time. If the margin of error in a poll is +/- 5% that means that even if two people differ by 10% (as Lieberman and Gephardt do in this poll) they are within the margin of error. Either get that concept straight or stop using the term. Those candidates are within the MOE of each other. Lieberman is not, I repeat NOT, twice the MOE from him.