Is Dean Losing Momentum?

[clar]

The purpose of this post is to look as objectively as possible at the post debate Dean campaign. It is not a flame, and in the interests of full disclosure, I am a Dean supporter. This doesn't mean I consider him immune to criticism. In fact, despite the claims that Dean supporters are mindless ditto-heads, I've observed relatively few people who support him blindly.

With the excception of the Slate article, most critiques of Dean's performance in the debate were pretty bland assertions that he had done himself no harm, that no one had knocked off his front runner status. I disagree. I thought he did a fairly lousy job. Not so much what he said as how he presented himself. He was somewhat tentative, his body language was unimpressive, he demonstrated no warmth, in short he appeared unready for prime time. Sorry if this offends anyone.

Last night the d-blog was buzzing- hundreds of posts. Many reflected disappointment and a hard to describe unease. Today the blog was slower than I've ever seen it, despite the efforts of staff to keep things moving along. One thread, with all of 3 posts, contained a message from a long time Dean supporter with a Dean site of his own.
This person expressed pain and disappointment over what he perceived as Dean's flip-flops.

So the question is:

Has the Dean campaign jumped the shark?

[RamboLiberal]

1. I didn't see the debate but I did read the blog

And I sure wasn't seeing the disappointment you expressed. And from the Meetup I attended I sensed only more enthusiasm. Hopefully I'll see the debate for myself and judge over the weekend.

But I don't think he's lost the Big Mo yet.

Geesh even wingnut Tony Blankley could see him debating Bush next fall.

I'm about to post an MSNBC article that says Dean is still the one to beat.

[liberalnurse]

2. Dean was consumate statesman last night.

He did not have to come out swinging....He was very articulate, relaxed and Presidential.

[clar]

5. Well, it's that old

two people watching the same thing and coming away with completely different impressions of the event.

[caledesi]

29. Well for what it's worth...my 89-year old mother was for Kerry

because she lives in RI and anyone representing MA is her man. But, today I talked with her (after repeatedly talking about Howard Dean and BEGGING her to watch him), she says she was very impressed by him since she FINALLY saw him in the debate, and is now in his camp. And oh, just for laughs...remember she is 89...she told me she thought he was "cute." LOL!

[unfrigginreal]

3. Personal opinion here.

Dean did not come off that well last night...he seemed to have lost the "fire in the belly."

I figure that it's more a product of campaign handling, than anything else. I do have enough faith in the campaign that I believe that they'll learn from their mistake and cut Dean loose in the next debate.

The main thing to realize though, is that he did not swerve from his message. He still espoused his positions, and I suspect that he will continue to do so with even more fervor in future debates.

[11cents]

7. Consider the source

>Geesh even wingnut Tony Blankley could see him debating Bush next fall.

This doesn't pertain to Dean in particular (and I haven't seen the debate yet -- will try to catch it on C-SPAN this weekend), but do keep in mind that GOP operatives like Blankley aren't giving real opinions; they're pushing whatever line they think will benefit the Republicans. The GOP think Dean will be easy to beat, so their mouthpieces will be inclined to push him forward at this point. They may be wrong about his chances, but that's what they think.

[CWebster]

9. My guess is he was playing his cards close to his chest

Those who attacked looked like fools - is best not to be baited. It is a long stretch to the election - being in front is holding the line carefully at times, while setting the course for the next round.

[surfermaw]

38. Dr.Dean was fine.

I am going to support the man who wins the nomination,but being from North Carolina,I and very intrested in Edwards, but Dr. Dean is my next of intrest. I thought he and Edwards handled themselves very well. Kerry was impressive. Heck they all did well.

[w4rma]

4. Gov. Dean goes to the debate with a few friends (I don't see any MO loss)

http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/001353.html#more
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=280195

[blm]

13. Why would he walk next to a sign

equating Kerry with Bush?

Is that his message? Like "Bushlite" was his message early on?

[w4rma]

14. His campaign is decentralized

Which means he lets supporters do what they want most of the time.

[DrFunkenstein]

18. I Notice Dean Supporters Fuming When Jim Jordan Opens His Mouth

But they seem realtively tranquil about a fat ass sign equating Kerry with Bush. Kind of like that thread someone posted with Kerry kissing Bush. Decentralized, aye? I could come up with some pretty catchy anti-Dean slogans, but I am still a Democrat.

[w4rma]

19. Call me when Joe Trippi is carrying the sign

Otherwise, I don't think that a meetup goer is equivalent to either campaign managers, Joe Trippi or Jim Jordan.

[blm]

32. Dean's campaign is careful about how he is seen.

How many hours of discussions do you think they had about whether or not he should speak at any of the antiwar protests?

To have him march near a sign like that is a big gaffe or nasty/stupid.

[DrFunkenstein]

33. Meetup Goer?

The guy is frickin' five feet away!

<>

Are you suggesting that Dean somehow missed the one different sign in the crowd?

"I'm Howard Dean, and I approve of this message."

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

49. I agree with the message.

How about you?




Edit: context.

[JohnKleeb]

20. You do a better job than I do of keeping my temper in

BTW I wouldnt call myself mad, I consider myself more sad than mad that said on things. Like how this country has gone to hell and how the man who imo has an outstanding vision is repeatly ignored, supposely unelectable, etc really bugs me. Sigh the journey for the nation of your dreams is a tough one.

[blm]

56. You do an admirable job.

Don't sell yourself short. Your temperament seems ideal to me.

[polpilot]

42. Can you imagine a sign that says 'Dean = Bush?' Wouldn't that be

hilarious???? Now why would a sign that read 'Dean = Bush' be hilarious but 'Kerry = Bush' is ehh a cause for alarm?? mmmmm... It's that old Bush-lite charge that never goes away.

Dean '04...

[blm]

47. Dean = Zell Miller is more accurate.

.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

50. If the shoe fits....

edit: context

[caledesi]

30. Oh what a great pic! n/t

[jos]

6. From what I saw

Dean was pursuing a classic frontrunner strategy: make no mistakes. Plus he was trying hard to shed the "testy" label that the punditocracy has placed on him. I think this was a good strategy.

Too much emphasis is placed on debate performance anyway.

[deutsey]

8. If people are that fickle

then we might want to just give up now.

[blm]

10. CNBC and MSNBC pundits praised Dean's performance

as presidential (including Russert) and dumped on Kerry for his. So...maybe they saw something special about Dean last night that others missed.

[unfrigginreal]

12. That should tell you a lot!

Here, some of his most ardent supporters gave him mixed reviews...how did he appear on the national scene?...according to you Presidential!

The truth is that we Dean supporters have come to expect so much from him that we'd be likely to write off an excellant appearance!

[synthia]

53. or else what really attracted them was the attack dog performance

that may be the cause of the disappointment.

[Karmadillo]

15. Given the rightward tilt of the pundits who usually show up on those

two channels (Russert, especially), it's hard to know what to make of their assessment. Kerry, as well as a number of other candidates, appeared to do well, so I'm not sure it bolsters their credibility if they're trashing him.

[RogueTrooper]

11. No but it is about to grow up

There have been rough waters before for the Dean campaign. Life for your average avtivist Dean supporter was a little rough after the MTP interview. However, raising a bucket load of money immediatly after shut most folks up. This particular morning has been a little rough.

Lieberman, it should be noted* launched a vicious attack on Dean immediatly after the debate; and after Dean left the building. No doubt the boo's and jears that Joe received when he launched an attack on Dean were probably still rining in he ears.
and that carried through into the early morning news cycle. With, what can only be described as a coordinated hit-piece ( see above ) this attack carried itself into the early morning news cycle.

Full marks to Holy Joe for wielding the Devil's tools 'though. So far, he has managed to do a better job than John Kerry. Who, questing for support, choose to attack Dean's opposition to Iraq. Idiot.

Edwards seems to be gently muddying the waters also; but I think he is only being an opportunist. He is just bottom feeding off of Lieberman's attack. Undignifying, but hardly worrying.

Every campaign is attacking Dean. Whether it be directly or indirectly. The reason they are attacking the campaign is because they have too. These most recent attacks have come from the candidates who need to win South Carlolina. And they must be a little worried if they are attacking this early.

Kerry, Edwards and Lieberman all exepected to to better in the recent SC poll that they actually did. Kerry, by announcing in South Carolina on the first day of polling and swamping the local media with "message" during the next day's polling, expected to do rather well. Lieberman was expecting, and desperatly needing, his high residual vote to keep him in the running. Edwards have been working the state and found himself rewarded, not amply, but rewarded non the less, with a top slot. There were bumps for some but nothing to put them out of sight of the good doctor from Vermont.

I would also say that the blog has been have technical problems for a long part of the day. It is probably the reason why there have been so few postings.

The Dean campaign is about more than Howard Dean. It is about taking back this country. If we let this campaign be about Howard Dean we will fail. If we keep our eye on the prize, we will win.



*And this won't be forgotten either.

[opstachuck]

16. concerning the blog

for what it's worth here's the activity today. i think people may have worn themselves out after the past week. Still, over 600 messages today. dunno...

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[CMT]

17. According to Walter Shapiro, "Rival debators unable to dent Dean momentum"

Shapiro is chief pundit for USA Today and this is from his Hype and Glory column today headlined:
RIVAL DEBATORS UNABLE TO DENT DEAN'S MOMENTUM

and I tend to agree

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/columnist/shapiro/2003-09-04-hype_x.htm

[Egnever]

21. Not at all

I agree it wasnt his best performance but it was solid. Thats all he needed to do last night was be solid. Hes in the lead he has the people working for him and if you listen to all the pundits today he comes away from this debate stll in the lead.

Sure as a big fan i would have liked to see more of his usual fire. But then part of the reason I wasnt so excited by his performance was because i have hear so much of what he said before. One thing to remember is many of the people in that crowd havent and so for them it is fresh.

[DrFunkenstein]

22. Lunge To The Center?

I always thought Dean did better on the stump than he did in the relative intimacy of television. That may be his style, or that he workds better in monologue.

I didn't think Dean did terrible - in fact, I thought he shut Grandpa Joe up pretty nicely. Joe had to go for it, although he was clearly not happy doing it, because the media has given Dean a free pass thus far (focusing on style, the internet, and momentum rather than policy).

Maybe it's me, but I can't imagine that Dean supporters are happy about him turning the hoses on the fire in his belly. He seemed relatively vanilla, where his supporters seem to prefer hot fudge. If they want to spin that as "Presidential" that's fine, but I didn't see it. I felt that with the 9 candidate format, there is not much room for acting Presidential.

I want a real debate. They should break them up into random groups of three and hold mini-debates. Admittedly, that's a pretty stupid idea, and more an expression of frustration.

[clar]

23. actually,

I don't think it's a stupid idea at all. Granted, it's difficult to figure out how it could be done, but these cattle call forums are short on substance.

PS loved your Kerry poster

[DrFunkenstein]

34. Thanks!

The funny thing is that I keep forgetting I made it!

Odd, considering it's on my desktop...

:freak:

[bbmykel]

24. I didn't like the format either

I thought all of the candidates came off ok. I'm not sure any of them converted anyone new to their cause (maybe Gep or Mosely Braun?) but certainly none of them hurt themselves. All of them had questions where they didn't really answer the question but went into more "programed speech" mode. The way political debating has evolved, there doesn't seem to be much upside for the candidates to say a lot since the only headline-grabber will be any egregious flub. I thought Dean looked a little more at ease than at the last one so that's a bit of progress. The best news is that anyone who actually watched heard a lot of good 'ol Bush-bashing.

The CA governor debate was much better I thought and a format like that might be more satisfying although maybe it just worked better because the reporters actually asked follow-ups when their questions weren't directly addressed. I thought that debate gave voters a good sense of the candidates (even Arnold who was too chicken to show up!).

Mike

[polpilot]

25. Dean is pacing. This race is a marathon...not a sprint. Dean is

waaaaay out front, has exceeded all expectations and is in a perfect position for the primaries. It's his to lose.

Dean '04...

[DJcairo]

36. I thought Dean said he was going to sprint

all the way to the presidency when asked about peaking to soon and his pre-labor day national tour.

[polpilot]

41. He flip flopped on that. In fact he bought some flip flops and said he's

into 'pacing' now.

Dean '04...

[PAMod]

26. Dean is better on the offensive than the defensive...

When we get to the general, we will need all of the offense we can muster.

Put forth the Democratic vision for saving our country, and pound Bush for being a miserable failure.

[Northwind]

27. I went to the store this afternoon

Wearing my Dean tshirt. 3 people, a 50-ish white woman, a young hispanic woman, and a black man all asked me where I'd got it. They wanted one too.

I am in Dallas, Tx.

Dean is THE CHOICE.

[caledesi]

28. Uh, no. 6,000 more supporters signed up after the debate.

[kang]

31. To early to worry about last night

While I'm not a Dean supporter (still researching some more on the field), I thought he did fine yesterday. I certainly wouldn't say lousy. He was a bit stiff it seemed and he still had that incredible seriousness to him.

But that's all style and not substance that can be hashed out still. He just needs some smiles, jokes, etc. to prove he's a regular joe too. For example, Edwards' "hasta la vista" joke was funny, although you'd think he would've been familiar enough with the joke to not laugh at it himself...only Chris Rock can get away with that.

All in all, I think the Dems did a good job at putting up a united front on bashing Bush. Too bad not too many watched it. It's still early and I don't think Dean lost any support for not rocking the house last night. We'll see how things get shaken up when Clark enters the race (I'm assuming that's what all this hub bub's been leading up to).

[belab13]

35. Kucinich is looking better and better every day.

this guy means what he says. Dean just strikes me as being very inconsistent. The type of politician that lobbyists love....

[blm]

37. You're right about Dennis.

He definitely speaks his mind. I have never known him to be dishonest in expressing himself.

[JohnKleeb]

44. absolutely about Dennis

belab I saw your post in my good friend leftist rebel's thread. I am glad you enjoyed him. I think its right to say that I am inspired by Dennis's compassion, desire for peace, conviction, and etc are why I am behind him, he makes me think of why not only are Bush and Co wrong on a simple level but on a moral level. I am not that religious but hes quite spritual in a way and makes you think and feel. I wear my Kucinich buttons with great pride. Win or lose the primary I always say he always will be the best in my eyes.

[MercutioATC]

39. No.

...that's it...just "no".

[genius]

40. The trouble is that Dean wants to do anything to get elected

And so he doesn't have solid positions on anything. On some issues, such as criminal justice and Constitutional law, he needs a better education and less prejudice.

[blm]

58. That's what is good about Dean getting scrutiny now

from real journalists and not just the cheerleading from the corporate media.

[Nicholas_J]

43. Timing is everything...

And to be honest, the media has always been fickle in its persuit of a good story.

Dean has been running for almost two years nad has been the candidate who has had the most media coverage for his "
"Internet Campaign" "His Fire in the Belly" his "Rousing the young and disaffected voters" his "Anti-War Candidate" title bars and headlines in the newpaperrs and on T.V. Good Howard is Dean, bad Howard the rage. Jumping the shark may be a good way to put it, but to be honest to the media, who now have to have three day wars before they attack them for going on too long (remember the 20 year Vietnam, 6 year WWII), needs somoething New about Howard, and Good News Howard is OLD NEWS. Howard is stilll good press, but now its, lets look for something bad.

Washinton Post started it, and now EVERYONE elses salaried reporters and stringershave to find something bigger to match or beat it.

Just the way the media chases ratings.

And since Dean is the one getting the negtative hits, I heartliy agree.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

45. Yes, and we expected this

It's what comes with being a frontrunner. All of the frontrunners will have to deal with this. The media will swoon for a bit, then sour.
They have to keep finding new things to say.

It's a long election season, the polls will go up and down, as will the coverage. But in the end, hopefully, the voters will decide. I'm confident that they will choose either Dean or Kerry (though I'm open to the idea it could be anyone else, like Clark or Gep or Edwards).

Fasten your seatbelts.

[Ellen Forradalom]

46. I don't think so

Remember Bush did a terrible job in his debates against Gore, yet managed to get a lot of votes. Go figure?

[poskonig]

48. The latest national Zogby poll has Dean AHEAD of Kerry, so no.

You will all be Dean supporters. It is inevitable.

"In the same poll, likely Democratic primary voters give a plurality of their support to former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean (16%), whose campaign has been gathering support in recent polling. He is followed by Massachusetts Senator John Kerry (13%), Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman (12%), and Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt (8%). No other candidate polled more than 3%."
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=732

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

51. No

[FubarFly]

52. Dean repeated the same lines word for word as in his stump speech...

but without the passion.

If you've seen him fire up and work a crowd, then I can see how the debate seemed "off" to you. It certainly did to me.

Not that I don't understand the strategy. Dean is most effective when he is shooting from the hip, but he gets in to the most trouble when he does that as well. So, as a frontrunner, Dean knows it's best to play it safe: don't say anything that will hurt yourself, and don't let any of the other candidates attacks stick. On those fronts Dean's debate performance was successful.

Where he was hurt is from the "stiffness" that results from reciting memorized lines. For people who haven't seen Dean before, these answers are still fresh, and thus effective. But it is difficult- for me at least- to watch him forcibly restrain himself from saying what he his gut instincts must tell him to say, and stick to the script.
Dean should use the debates to break in some fresh lines and cogent sound bites. Gephardt's "miserable failure" line was an example of how effective this could be. With seven or eight other candidates on the stage, this is all most people will take home with them anyhow. If Dean mixed in a few well-placed zingers along with his usual solid policy answers, it would contribute to a more relaxed demeanor, and improve his overall performance a great deal. It would also help grow his momentum, instead of adding to the false impression that he is getting stale.

Dean could also use to refine his hand gestures. Specifically, he has a bad habit of pointing. This may seem like a little thing, but it's these kinds of things that make a lasting impression with people. They're also the easiest to correct.

Please keep in mind that I am an ardent Dean supporter, and this is meant as constructive criticism. I believe Dean has what it takes to become a fine president, but a little polish could still help him considerably. When it comes time for the presidential debates, I don't want to see Dean merely beat b*sh, but rather, pummel the miserable little bastard into complete and total submission. So maybe my standards for him in these debates are a little higher than for most. :evilgrin:

[Mass_Liberal]

54. He was bad in the debate

I am a Dean supporter, and I think he is an amazing man and will make a great president. I don't think his campaign is losing ground. His speeches at rallies are amazing! But he loses his aggressive passion during debates. It makes me saddened that he can't show the fire he has during rallies during national tv.



Peace:kick:

[Nicholas_J]

57. You cant show fire in an interview or debate

Because you have to tell the truth....

In rally's you can say whatever you think the crowds want to hear.

But Kucinich has several times hit Dean where he lives, especially when he cornered Dean into a situation in which Dean lied on national TV about his past statements about Social Security, and then had to apologize and admit that he HAD made the statements several days later. The fact is that everyone but Dean supporters, especially the media finally realized for once and for all that Dean WILL lie to the public.

Which is again why, within a week or so of Dean being caught in a lie in front of millions of people, the media has started looking for any flip plops in Deans positions from the start of his campaign and they are lekely to go back into his career as governor to look for more.

And among Democrats and Progressives, they are likely to find a great many peple who will certify that thi is part and paccel of Deans campaign style, from people who have had to deal with Dean for years before those who currently support him even knew he existed.

I mean after all. Republicans get all fired up about Bush at Bush rallies. He is visiting my city soon and already the repukes are wetting themselves.

Getting people fired up by telling them what they want to hear does not translate into capablility as a political leader.

[tedoll78]

55. I noticed a tone of disappointment.

Bearing in mind that 2/3 of voters can't name a single candidate, I think he did fine. Dr Dean's mission for that evening was to not screw-up - that's all. No major blunders, and he performed really well when attacked. Knowing very well that tons of new voters were watching, I think it was smart for him to not go out on a limb. He has no need to do so.

His job now, I think, is to not mess-up between now and October 1 - when the end of the quarter fundraising numbers begin to surface. When those numbers come-out, and when everyone realizes that he's broken a sitting Democratic president's fundraising record in such a manner, the buzz is once again going to be phenominal. Especially if he tops $12 million.