The House Subtext re Mark Foley's withdrawal from the Senate race

[goobergunch]

As most of us know, Mark Foley (R) withdrew from the Florida Senate race a couple days ago. Unfortunately, it seems he will be running for re-election to the House. Foley's district is a swing district, but we don't have much of a chance if he's running. Another seat taken off the table. *sigh*

[NewJerseyDem]

1. He would have been best candidate

So, even though we can't win his house seat, we have a better shot at holding the senate seat. Weldon, McCollum and the others are much more conservative than Foley and I think that Foley would have been the favorite in any general election. I really hope that Graham decides to run for senate and drops the presidential race. That would certainly mean victory in this senate race.

[jos]

3. Agree

And I think Graham will do that. But if he's tapped for VP, we're back to square one.

[Lexingtonian]

2. Nonetheless

we do have Lois Frankel running. I expect it to be very close either way.

[mndemocrat_29]

4. I think that we still have an outside chance at the district

Since Foley's indecisiveness may cause a few votes to go toward the Dems. However, it will be far, far more difficult.

On the bright side, I think that this seat is looking more and more Democratic each day. More than likely, I expect that Bob Graham won't be tapped for VP (if he'd built any sort of buzz in this race, it would be his, but right now he seems in decline). Therefore, I think he'll jump back into the Senate race. More than likely, Peter Deutsch, Alcee Hastings, and Dave Weldon will all jump back into the House, and it will be McCollum vs. Graham, with Graham winning in a landslide. Without Graham, I think that Deutsch will be senator and that Weldon's seat could possibly swing our way.

[TSIAS]

5. I didn't know Frankel was running

Currently she's mayor of WPB. I hadn't heard that she was running for the Senate or House in '04.

[Lexingtonian]

6. yeah, it was news to me too

though she probably hasn't formally announced that she's running, it's noted that way on DC's website

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/FL

It's a district where Bush got 54%. Given the average 3% decrease in conservative voting per four years, and generally higher than that in high minority growth areas like Florida, this one's going to be even and depends on turnout. I'd expect a competent Democrat to get between 47% and 51% overall- knocking off incumbents is generally a 51-49 business- and Frankel will know how to get the GOTV- oops, that's Operation 51/04- in her district.

Another candidate I like after looking into it is Stacy Ritter, taking on Clay Shaw in the Florida 22nd. She may be one of our breakout starlets for '04. And Jan Schneider is probably going to make life even harder for Katherine Harris in the 14th.

[ButterflyBlood]

7. It means we have a much better chance at keeping the Senate seat though

Foley was probably their best candidate. the others are all right wingnuts.