Dean Tops List of Democratic Presidential Contenders- ZOGBY

[Rose Siding]

AND Bush is screwed :-)

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=732

[clar]

1. The good news here is:

A. It looks like seriously bad news for bush. and

B. For all those rhapsodizing about the Gallup poll, this is further
proof of the uselessness of early national polls in measuring
support for any of the dem candidates. (As opposed to state
polls.)

[unfrigginreal]

2. The good news for Dean is that Zogby was...

"likely Democratic Primary Voters." The CNN poll that put Kerry on top was "registered Democratics and Democratic Leaning Independents."

So, the CNN poll is more subject to name recognition than the Zogby poll which targeted folks that are already paying attention.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

3. Bush is sinking!

I don't expect him to stand still for it, but it's nice to see anyway.

[gristy]

4. FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!!

:bounce::party::bounce::party::bounce::party:

There was a poll in early August asking when people thought *'s first approval poll would drop below 50%. I guessed around August 20 or so. Here it is September 6. I was pretty far off. Now we get to see just how "solid" *'s core republican support is. Each drop in approval from here on out comes from that group, IMO.

Here's a clip from the article:

<snip>
Less than half (45%) of the respondents said they rated his job performance good or excellent, while a majority (54%) said it was fair or poor. In August Zogby International polling, his rating was 52% positive, 48% negative. Today's results mark the first time a majority of likely voters have given the president an unfavorable job performance rating since he took office.

Bush Job Performance Positive % Negative %
September 2003........... 45............... 54
August 2003................ 52............... 48
July 2003.................... 53............... 46
March 2003................. 54............... 45
September 2002........... 64............... 36
September 2001........... 82............... 17
August 2001................ 50............... 49
January 2001............... 42............... 36

[Nicholas_J]

5. But in this poll

Dean is again, statisticall equal with tho other candidates.

[RogueTrooper]

6. And we all know what usually happens next

:evilgrin:

[polpilot]

26. Dean rules the universe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

couldn't help it.

Dean '04...The New Democratic Leader of the NEW Democratic Party.

[virtualobserver]

7. you crack me up!

Thanks for helping to put the poll in "perspective".

[UnapologeticLiberal]

14. The margin of error is only relevant when Kerry is leading!

at least, that is the rule with NH polls. With national polls, the MOE is only relevant if the president's numbers go up or if Lieberman or Kerry or Gephardt is leading. :D

See, I can drop statistics class...I already understand the polling process. :D

[Nicholas_J]

21. If the candidate

Is just at or beyond the MoE, then the statistics place that candidate clearly ahead of the other candidate in that poll, by whatever methodology that poll used.

SO if the MoE in a poll is 5 percent, and Dean is five percent behind Kerry, Kerry IS absolutely ahead in THAT poll

Whereas if Dean is ahead of Kerry by 2 percent in a poll that has a fove pecent margin of error, there is no statistical difference between the two in that poll.

What is important is the it is KERRY, and not Dean who has pulled ahead of Lieberman, who has been at the top of every national poll for the last six months.

[dsc]

24. That is voodoo math

I have no idea who taught you stats but I sincerly hope that if he gave you a decent grade that he no longer is teaching stats.

This is how MOE really works as opposed to the fantasy you just presented. Lets say the MOE is + or - 5%. Now let's say the poll results are as follows.

Lieberman 15%
Dean 13%
Kerry 12%
Gephardt 10%
rest under 5%.

That means that the range of possible percentages for the top four candidates would be:

Lieberman 10-20%
Dean 8-18%
Kerry 7-17%
Gephardt 5-15%

That is due to the fact that the MOE is a range (hence the + or -). And thus we can't say with any certainty which of the four candidates in that example is in the lead. In order for what you are saying to be at all correct the candidates would have to be seperated by twice the MOE and even then that isn't necessarily true.

If you don't believe me then go to any statistics book and you will see I am right.

[Nicholas_J]

22. If Zogby is only polling liberal voters

The poll is totally valueless, as the poll are supposed to be subject to mehtodology that prevents any such skewing in the polls.

To even state that Zogby polls more liberal people is show total ignorance of the methods pollsters use.

[dsc]

17. Unlike you Nick

I will be consistent. You are quite correct they are. Funny how you never, as it not even one time, mention this when a poll says something you like.

[DJcairo]

8. Zogby obviously calls more liberal voters

because his polling always gives Bush a lower number than most other mainstream polls and he is constantly adsserting Dean's dominance in the primary race. His editorials imply Dean has already won the nomination which only exposes Zogby's true sympathies.

[unfrigginreal]

9. I thought that Kerry was the Liberal candidate?

I mean, Dean is to the right of Atilla The Hun isn't he?

How does that help your case?

[TheYellowDog]

10. Dean is slightly to the left of Lieberman

And Kerry is a bit farther left than Dean.

[DJcairo]

11. Sure but right now Dean's anti-war thing has got

the left excited as has been stated in numerous news articles about Dean's rise. The hardcore left (the only ones paying attention right now) are more for Dean than Kerry. Once the moderates start paying attention and realize it's a two man race between Kerry and Dean, support may likely increase for Kerry.
The next polls out of Iowa and NH will be interesting for this reason. I predict that the race will be a toss up in Iowa and NH with Kerry winning one and Dean the other. Gephardt is looking weaker and weaker nationally which will end up hurting him in Iowa. Also, he has nowhere near the money to spend that Kerry or Dean has and thsi may make his battle for Iowa even more difficult.

[unfrigginreal]

12. So, Kerry's a moderate? I guess that makes you a moderate too?

Interesting, when so much of the venom posted by Kerry supporters has been that Dean is too far to the right.

Just so you know, I am a moderate, and Kerry would get my general election vote BUT he would NEVER get my primary vote. VOTE DEAN!

[JohnKleeb]

13. hardcore left you say

Funny I identify myself as very left but I prefer Kerry to Dean. Thats just me, so I dont represent all the Kucinich supporters in saying that. Thats just me but Ive heard that Kerry was speaking against nuclear weapons today, and you know what I like that. Anyone who votes often with Ted Kennedy is good for me.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

18. Most of the Kucinich people here seem to agree on that

I am not sure why, but it seems that the Kerry and Kucinich people here have some sort of alliance, and neither group seems to mind the other's candidate nearly as much as they mind Dean. I feel like it is a two-frontal attack or something sometimes...I guess it is the saying "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."

[JohnKleeb]

19. No actually its far from an alliance

I do like the fact that Dean opposed the war but errr I am all around liberal as is Kucinich and lets face it Kerry could be called an all around liberal like his view on the war or not. I see respect towards our camp from both sides. I dont attack Dean but I do disagree with him on issues dear to me like the death penalty, I-P, etc. I am a new deal dem on economics and what makes Dean not a liberal is that. Besides as I joke anyone who gets on Nixon's enemy list cant be that bad. Thats just the way things are, as much as I hate the war I cant just support someone because they opposed it they have to appeal to me and other ways. Hence my support for Kucinich a war opponent and my kind of thinker and Kerry who despite the anti war vote is all around liberal. Also heres another thing that makes me have positive views on Kerry, recently he talked about how nuclear weapons were wrong I like that. BTW according to a DU poll today my camp has slipped to third place, your camp and Clark's are neck and neck. I have much to like about Kucinich. I just wish cynics would give him a look. I know you didnt like his attiude towards your guy the other night but on the issues most seem to acknowledge he was magnifacant.

[tedoll78]

28. I see it more as jealousy.

Their candidates aren't getting the crowds, the energy, the money (esp. w/such a small avg donation), the media buzz, etc etc. And despite efforts to deem Dean a flip-flopper, or too liberal, or too conservative, or too mean, <fill in the blank>, etc, his status in this campaign isn't seriously hurt. Hell, he's still moving up in some places.

Frustration, jealousy.. whatever you want to call it.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

15. Most of the "hardcore left" is for Kucinich

Some of them were in our campaign but when Kucinich got in they switced...which is understandable, because Dean is not as far left as the media would have you think.

Check out my new Dean blog:
http://deangrassroots.blogspot.com

[JohnKleeb]

16. thats my name dont wear it out

:evilgrin: I was originally for Dean I will admit it not the only one I am posiitive. BTW I am pretty left but Ive never considered myself a Green. Well Kucinich entering is what did it, hes been in since spring I know. I hope you dont mind me saying this but I do prefer Kerry to Dean if it comes down to it.

[unfrigginreal]

20. After reading posts 13-16 it appears that Kerry...

is the second most Liberal candidate, behind only Dennis Kucinich.

That throws some cold water on your thesis that Dean benefited in the Zogby poll because of a Liberal backing. As a matter of fact, since you claim that Zogby favors Liberal voters...it makes Dean look even stronger than the 3 point lead announced.

[JohnKleeb]

23. Thats just me

really, I do like the fact that Dean opposed the war but theres much to like about Kerry too. I like how he was one of the first politicans to introduce pro gay rights discrimination. I like how he got on Nixon's enemy list. I am a big fan of the Kennedy family and Ted K giving him one no matter the fact he is from MA or not is good. I do like Dean but him and Kerry are simliarly social issues wise, economically pretty different but not polar opposites, and I think Kerry rather than Dean has an opposition to war history. Thats just me if you wanna know the honest truth. Also IIRC Kerry opposes the death penalty and hes big on the environment.

[dsc]

25. and you have some citation for this I assume

Zobgy's polls have the reputation as being the most accurate ones around. So I would like some evidence, aside from your dislike of what they say, that these polls have been rigged. That is, in point of fact, what you are saying here.

[CMT]

27. Good news for Dean

but still very competitive. Great news about Bush--down in the mid 40's. No wonder he is giving this speech tomorrow night--I'm sure his private polls also show his position deteriorating.