New NH Poll shows Dean leading JK by only 12 points

[DJcairo]

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2003/09/07/dean_holds_strong_lead_over_kerry_in_nh_poll/


It's unfortunate that the inaccurate Zogby poll got so much press. It is important to note that this poll was taken before Kerry's first TV ads have hit the state and that Dean has been advertising for a month in NH.

Here's an excerpt from the article:

Even among Dean supporters, just 67 percent said they believed their candidate could beat Bush. By contrast, 80 percent of Kerry's supporters had faith their candidate could win. "The Kerry people have to be encouraged," said Jennifer Donahue, senior adviser for political affairs at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics. "Kerry missed the starting gun, and he seems to have a chance now. That 80 percent think he can beat Bush is significant."

Several voters surveyed agreed. "I don't think anybody can beat Bush right now, but if one would do it, I think it would be Kerry," said James Murray, 58, a registered Independent who voted for McCain in 2000. Murray, who lives in Rochester, said Dean has too little experience to take on the Bush campaign behemoth, and will therefore support Kerry, preferring the senator's approach to the economy and the war.

[virtualobserver]

1. both polls show Dean at 38%

but anything that doesn't show the Kerry surge must be inaccurate, I guess.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

2. Kerry supporters more confident in their choice

that's what I sense in a lot of what I've read.

Kerry's got the staying power and what just it wil take to unseat Bush.

[w4rma]

11. These Dean supporters don't think Kerry can win, either

Bush will have over $200 million in funding and he has big media on his side. This is going to be a tough fight and I think folks are deluding themselves if they think it'll be easy.

I think Dean can and will and has the best chance at defeating Bush, but I can also see why folks would say that Bush will probably win no matter who runs against him.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

15. My point was Kerry supporters are more the true believers in their man

Dean support is wider but not as deep. And you'll see this proven in the evaporation of some Dean support as primaries draw closer.

[w4rma]

19. "doesn’t eat into Dean’s lead…Dean is the only one who could hold his own"

…
Under the Clinton scenario, Kerry would fall into the second tier of Democratic hopefuls, favored by just 16 percent of voters. All the other Democratic candidates would be relegated to the single digits.

Dean’s support among independent- and reform-minded voters seems intact with or without Clinton in the race while Kerry would find his base of support among traditional Democratic voters threatened, according to Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers.

"If Hillary Clinton suddenly expressed some interest in the race, the biggest potential loser is Kerry," Myers told the Herald. "She doesn’t eat into Dean’s lead at all ... As of today, Dean is the only one who could hold his own (against Clinton)."
…
http://www4.fosters.com/News2003/July2003/July_28/News/reg_pol_0728a.asp

A new Prez Preferece poll
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=190456

Clark V Dean
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=196331

[MercutioATC]

20. Actually, the poll directly contradicts that...

"And in an increasingly polarized political climate, Dean's supporters also showed more enthusiasm for their candidate, suggesting that the rage among Democratic partisans has not subsided. While 32 percent of Dean backers say they will "definitely support" him in the primary, 26 percent of Kerry's supporters say the same for the Massachusetts senator."

Seems Dean suporters offer stronger support in this sampling...

[NewYorkerfromMass]

24. Contradict this:

Only 67 percent of Dean supporters said they believed their candidate could beat Bush, whereas 80 percent of Kerry's supporters had faith their candidate could win.

[renie408]

51. YEah, but 67% percent of Dean

supporters still outnumber 80% of Kerry supporters.

What does it matter if only 67% of the people think he can win AS LONG AS THEY ARE WILLING TO VOTE FOR HIM ANYWAY? That's like me saying that I know five people who are 100% convinced that I could beat Bush. Does that beat ten people who are willing to vote for someone else, but are only 40% sure that he can win?

[renie408]

50. How can you say that??

You can't say that. I mean, I guess you can cause you did, but where do you back up a statement like that? How can you POSSIBLY accurately evaluate the level of commitment that Dean supporters have versus Kerry supporters?? Ask them all to walk over hot coals and see how many actually do it??

Oh, and I got news...some of the Dean supporters I have met would ROLL in hot coals for Dean.

[dsc]

3. These polls are (barely) within the MOE

of each other. Like many people who comment on polls you do so with no evidence of having any idea what an MOE is or why it is important. The 'leads' are 9 points apart. With an MOE of 5 the leads could be anywhere from 0 to 10 apart and both polls would still be accurate to the degree that they claim to be. You accused Zogby of calling more liberals in another thread, I asked you for a citation, still nothing. I said in real time, and do beleive, that a 21 point lead is unrealistic. But it would be nice to see some Dean bashers be conistent on these polls. I try to be.

[DJcairo]

4. Yes but I wanted to underscore 12 points not 21

Because 21 is such a big number and it was so clearly off it feeds a perception that isn't true about Kerry's chances in NH. Anyone that thinks Dean has a lock in NH is crazy. The only reason he is ahead there is because of TV. By the end of the month you will see a very tight race.

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

6. The only way Dean has a lock in NH

is if he keeps doing exactly what he's been doing, AND if the other candidates keep doing what they've been doing. Clearly, the other candidates need to make changes in their strategies. Kerry has already done that. His delivery during the debate was excellent--a nice change from his usual circumventing. Gephardt made a huge change--he directly attacked W, a wise choice IMO. And he's been all over the news as a result, when in past months he's been scarce.

If you keep doing what you're doing, you'll keep getting what you're getting.

edit:

[George_Bonanza]

9. LOL, Dean looks so cute!

[dsc]

21. and I never said otherwise

my central point is that you claimed here that the first poll was inaccurate, and in a different thread you all but called it rigged, when in point of fact it is possible (if Kerry's support is actually between 21 and 22%) that both polls are accurate. I think we should be careful when discussing polls.

[ModerateMiddle]

5. I agree

The 21 point spread wasn't very realistic, as it was so far out from any other poll. But this is now 2 polls with Dean at 38%, so that lends credibility to that number. It's very likely that the 11 point boost Kerry got was from the announcement tour. But it's also true that Dean has been on TV for over a month now in NH. And Kerry just started - after this latest poll was taken.

[DJcairo]

10. In light of this new poll...

it's even more important that Kerry promote his electability over the other candidates. That is one area where most voters clearly seem to give the advantage to Kerry. Kerry has recently been emphasizing that he was the "first" and "only" person to talk about energy independence, bunker buster nuclear weapons and keeping the tax cuts for the lower and middle class. This carries water if you are a voter who believes Kerry has a better chance of beating Bush.

[liberalmuse]

7. The previous poll was taken last week...

before Kerry made his announcement on Monday. That could account for the closing of the gap. It's unrealistic to think it won't be close among what I believe to be the top 2 contenders in the race thus far. We'll have to wait and see what happens if Clark throws his hat in the ring.

[CMT]

8. more good news for Howard Dean--strong lead among McCain voters

Thanks for posting it. I have always thought that the numbers in Zogby wouldn't last--who really did? a 20+ point lead? no. It is going to be close in NH--unless Dean wins or comes in a solid second in Iowa and that momentum would then be contagious in NH.

Plus Dean holds a strong lead among 2000 McCain voters which shows he has strength among Independents. Also According to this article, more Dean supporters are strongly committed than Kerry supporters.

[DJcairo]

12. Yes, I'm looking forward to new Iowa numbers because I think

Kerry has a real chance their. He has an enormous Iowa operation and even though he hasn't been in the state as many times he's closer to Dean their than in NH and again that was before advertising. If Gephardt fails Kerry's strong Iowa labor support could help him pick up some of the people who would normally have voted for Gephardt.

I think that by the time Iowa comes up it will be clear that Gephardt has no chance nationally and Iowa voters will be eager to nominate someone they think can win. This is a scenario where Kerry begins to look better and better.

[Nicholas_J]

23. I have a friend in Iowa

who has been sending me clipping from letters to the editor in a number of Iowa newspapers that come from the many Vermont Farmers who lost theior famrs as a result of Deans brining in of large argicutural corporations. when Dean came to office 70 percent of the fams were small family farms, and in ten years his policies and legislation reduced this to 54 percent, a 36 percent reduction in small family fames as an agrigate of all farms. Vermont was one of the few places in the Northeast that had mananged to have laws that kept small farms profitable, and Dean altereed those laws to allow larger corporate farms to put family fdarms out of business.

This will not play well for Dean in Iowa, as his record regarding small farms was not known until recently. It is becoming widely known now.

[DJcairo]

34. I'd bet that this will pop up in Kerry ad

It's fair game and ought to be relevant to Iowa voters.

[DJcairo]

13. Yes, but it also says

Kerry supporters actually think he can beat Bush whereas Dean supporters aren't so sure of their candidates chances.

[w4rma]

14. IMHO, the Dean supporters have a better handle on the situation

Bush will have over $200 million in funding and he has big media on his side. This is going to be a tough fight and I think folks are deluding themselves if they think it'll be easy.

I think Dean can and will and has the best chance at defeating Bush, but I can also see why folks would say that Bush will probably win no matter who runs against him.

The 2004 election won't be a cakewalk at all. Republicans are much better able to get their spin out than Democrats are able to even be seen.

[DJcairo]

16. What would innoculate

Dean against the "unpatriotic" smear? You might discount that it could work but it has and will unless we nominate a Dem who is a war hero. I want to see someone like Kerry stand up to Bush's war mongering and remind him which one has really fought for the country. I would be scared to trust Dean in a debate format trying to defend his knowledge of foreign affaris and saying something silly like he's been saying recently,"I've travelled to 50 countries (for vacation)"
Dean might be tough but they will smear him with everything they've got. Kerry on the other hand can innoculate himself aginst a lot of that shit and is far more capable and articulate in a debate and on TV of defending a hitting back any attacks. Just witness the superb job he has been doing the last few weeks as the media has altogether tried to pretend he's already lost the primaries. He has stood up against withering negative press the last couple weeks and has defended every single accusation while maintaing his optimism. This is something Gore and Dukaksis were terrible at doing and Kerry is great at it. You cannot get "testy" when attacked like Dean does. That will sink him in a GE. Kerry is the man.

[w4rma]

17. Dukakis couldn't innoculate himself from that sort of smear

The smear on Dukakis was "soft on crime". He has nearly the exact same biography that Kerry does.

[DJcairo]

18. Uh no he doesn't

Kerry is a former prosecutor who sent many many people to jail for life.

[virtualobserver]

22. it isn't possible to 'innoculate' yourself from Repub attacks....

They are customized to your particular candidate's record and demeanor.

The question is whether any candidate can handle what is thrown at them.

Dean does not sit back and wait to be attacked, he goes on the attack. I think that he is on to something there.

If Kerry is the truly 'electable' one, then he should have no problem with Dean. But Kerry has been outflanked by Dean in many ways.

[DJcairo]

25. we shall see about that

[NewYorkerfromMass]

26. Dean has not ouflanked Kerry in any way

unless you consider attracting the "peace at all costs" crowd as being ouflanked.

[virtualobserver]

30. no, I call blowing past Kerry in New Hampshire....

outflanking him.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

38. if you light a rocket it will zoom upward

but if it doesn't escape earth's gravity.....

[virtualobserver]

41. but you can keep it in orbit for eight years.......

with the correct strategy.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

43. I just think Kerry has more fuel

:)

[virtualobserver]

45. well, you might be right......

However it goes, I suspect that it will be fun to watch.

[citizinemag]

27. Kerry supporters

Im in California, and I still have never met a Kerry supporter here -- Ive met a lot of Dean and Kucinich supporters, but no one talking about Kerry out here.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

29. hang around with liberal military and vets

you'll find 'em in droves.

[dolstein]

28. It's time for Dean to dropout

He's obviously peaked. The next few months will be an accelerating slide into political oblivion. Save us all the trouble, Howard, and withdraw now. For the good of the party.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[dsc]

31. I have defended you on this board

quite often. Posts like that make me wonder.

[dolstein]

32. Is it true that Dean and his supporters have no sense of humor?

dsc -- I was JOKING. I thought that was pretty obvious.

Sadly, the Dean supporters who are calling on other candidates to drop out months before any votes will be cast aren't joking.

[RogueTrooper]

40. not down here we don't dolstein

;-)

[VermontDem2004]

44. Can you give me a link?

the Dean supporters who are calling on other candidates to drop out months before any votes will be cast aren't joking.

I remember you gave the wrong title to a LBN article and you accused Dean supporters of doing the same, well I searched and I couldn't find it. Tell me where Dean supporters were asking others to drop out, maybe you forgot about the Drop out Dean petition?

[Mass_Liberal]

53. are you with joking me?

Howard dean is leading in Iowa and New Hampshire by large margins. He is doing better than anyone expected him to. He has a revolutionary grassroots campaign, and his fundraising techniques are admirable. He is the FRONTRUNNER. He is getting better and better. If he loses, it will be by a very slim margin. That statement was just plain wrong.

[valphoosier]

33. LOL, "only" ...

... nice spin.

[DJcairo]

35. Well, one the last poll said 21 points

I thought it fair to publicize a poll that shows something quite a bit different. Also, the storyline coming out of this poll is that NH voters are divided over who they think has the best chance to beat bush even though more currently are supporting Dean.

[idlisambar]

36. polling methodolgy

The contrast probably reflects differences in polling methodology combined with a little bit of announcement bump for Kerry.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

37. "Only" 12?

[AWD]

39. I was thinking the same thing

..."Only 12 points"

Thanks for pointing that out, RiF....

[BushGone04]

42. Compared to the recent Zogby poll...

...that showed Dean up 38-17, a 12-point deficit looks a bit better for Kerry. Of course, it's still not exactly good news for a man who expected to win NH easily, but it's certainly an improvement over a 21-point deficit. I imagine it will shrink more as Kerry's ads start having an effect.

[DJcairo]

47. I don't know that Kerry was ever expected to win NH easily

Dean and Kerry were tied in polls in NH as far back as last April. Only recently has Dean moved ahead somewhat.

[BushGone04]

49. yeah

I was thinking more back to when Kerry and his people were first beginning to plan his run... like, towards the end of last year. At that point, Dean's name was barely on the map, and it looked like Kerry could win NH pretty easily. You're right, though, that it's been close for a good while now. Our guy's still got time to get back in it though. :)

[tsipple]

46. Dean Leads Kerry By "Only" 12 Points = "Slightly Pregnant"?

Would somebody please explain to me why Kerry can be even 2 points behind in New Hampshire and that's somehow good news? He's unbelievably well known in New Hampshire! Most of the state watches Boston television, and a good chunk of the state works in Massachusetts. (It's closer than a neighboring county in California or Texas.)

That's much less true of Vermont -- those of you from New England know what I mean. New Hampshire doesn't pay nearly as much attention to Vermont. (And Dean's polling in Iowa kind of rules out the allegation that New Hampshire likes him because he's also from next door.)

Kerry has got to win New Hampshire. It's that simple. It's like California in the general election -- Democrats must win it. Otherwise that pesky media is going to be asking, "OK, so if the state that knows Kerry second best to his home state didn't vote for him, what now?" And I'm not sure I have an answer for that. And I like John Kerry! (Well, except for his Iraq vote, and his continued handling of same. "I voted to go to the U.N." is a flat out falsehood. Wish he would fix that pronto.)

Oh, by the way, if you take 67% of 38, that's 25.5. Then 80% of 26 is 20.8. Dean still beats Kerry, because 25.5% of New Hampshire voters think Dean beats Bush, and only 20.8% think Kerry beats Bush. (Yes, I know this is silly math. That's the point! Last I checked the New Hampshire primary ballot doesn't say, "Mark your choice here, but your vote will only count if you're really sure your choice will beat Bush.") Could also mean Dean voters are more realistic than Kerry voters. (EVERY election is fraught with risk. I'd have to answer that poll question in the negative for any Democratic candidate. Anything's possible. And how did, say, Sharpton's supporters answer that question? 98% of them are certain Sharpton will beat Bush?)

I think this one deserves the "Silly Spin Award." :-)

[AWD]

48. Come on now...

....how many times have candidates won 56-44 in races and it's been a "squeaker"??

Oh, right...never.

[Mass_Liberal]

52. ONLY 12 percent??????

This is grasping at straws. Dean is holding a commanding lead over Kerry. 12% is a pretty large margin. And WOW! isn't it impressive that a kerry supporter said that Kerry could win if anyone could.


Peace :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[George_Bonanza]

54. True, but...

Dean used to have a 21 point lead. That's a lead almost cut in half. And it coincides with Kerry's great media blitz. I expect great things to come in the near future.