Where Bustamante gains his advantage in recall: Field poll by subgroups

[CMT]

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante has moved into a 30-25 percent lead over Arnold with McClintock at 13% (pray that he stays in the race and isn't persauded to get out!!). Here are the foundations of Bustamante strength:

Democratic voters favor Cruz by a 59/10/3 margin over Arnold and McClintock. By contrast among GOP voters Arnold is backed by 41% to 29% for McClintock with Cruz capturing 4%. Among non-partisan voters 29% favor Arnold to 19% for Cruz and 8% for McClintock. Why are independents high on Arnold?

In the Bay Area Cruz has a lead over Arnold of about 3-1 44-13 percent and in Los Angeles County Cruz leads 37-30. Arnold holds a "significant" lead in the nine Southern California counties outside of LA.

There is a big gender gap (hopefully will get larger as stories about Arnold's anti-women attitudes are exposed)with Cruz leading among women 35-22. Men favor Arnold narrowly 29-26. Lets hope for a huge turnout of women.

Voters intending to vote NO on the recall favor Bustamante overwhelmingly--by a rock solid 66-5 margin over Arnold. On the other hand, Cruz only gets 5% of the votes of those who will vote YES on the recall to 43% for Arnold and 21% for McClintock.

Amazingly Cruz only has a ten-point lead over Arnold among Latinos by 36-26 (with still 20% undecided) I think Cruz needs to spend alot of time in the latino community between now and the election.

Among white/non-hispanic voters Cruz leads 29-25.

Cruz has a significant lead among African-Americans 56-14.

Among age groups:
18-29 favor Cruz 29-25
30-39 34-28 for Cruz
40-49 23-26 for Arnold
50-64 35-25 for Cruz
65 and older 30-25 for Cruz

The good news is that voters 50 and older give Cruz a 5-10 point lead since turnout is highest the older you are.

Among college grads Arnold actually leads Cruz 28-25 but post grad work Cruz has a solid lead of 40-20. Still I'm amazed that Arnold leads among college grads.

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2088.pdf

[jos]

1. Only 36% of the Hispanic vote!

That's hard to believe. He needs to do better, like bump it up to 50%.

I don't think McLintock will drop out. He's actually gaining ground. But I think Uebberoth will, which will help Arnold. That's why Cruz needs to bump up that Hispanic number.

[pansypoo53219]

2. it would help

if he didn't support Lieberputz, i bet.