South Dakota-What's Happening

[mndemocrat_29]

South Dakota is gearing up for an impressive 2004 battle in three races.

President-While it rarely is in doubt, recent polls show Bush vulnerable in this very red state. Even a close Bush victory could spell a major Democratic wave.

Senate-Tom Daschle is looking better and better for reelection in 2004. His leadership position vaulted Tim Johnson to reelection last year, and should keep him safe for reelection. The only candidate left who could possibly beat him is For. Rep. John Thune.

House-Rep. Bill Janklow will probably retire in 2004, if not sooner. The most likely to succeed candidate would have to be Thune, but many would view this as a step down for the former congressman. There's a fairly good chance he'll run for the Senate. Therefore, the frontrunner would be Stephanie Herseth, who ran against Janklow in 2002 and nearly beat him. If Thune doesn't run, the next most likely Repuke would be For. Sen. Larry Pressler, who has expressed interest in the race.

Any thoughts?

[Bluzmann57]

1. Janklow may be in jail by that time

Vehicular homicide is a serious crime and Mr. Janklow has a history of traffic violations. Don't know how things work in South Dakota, but here in Iowa, if you do the crime, be prepared to do the time, unless you are the son of the ex- governor.

[qb]

2. Interesting that Daschle is looking better and better.

All he had to do is shut his stupid mouth and stop sucking up to Smirk.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

17. Haven't heard a peep in a while, have we?

:think:

[StClone]

3. Proves a Billion dollar

Liar can be beat by two bits of truth. Daschle has that.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

4. Daschle has done good for his state...

but if Thune runs against him this will be a highly competitive race with Daschle having the edge. A single digit victory will be for Daschle!

[jiacinto]

5. Thune will run to get his old seat back if he's smart

He would lose a race against Daschle. And frankly, between running a tough, hard campaign that would be at best a 50-50 a shot, and running a campaign that would be an easy win, Thune would go with the latter. I think he runs for his old seat.

[Doomsayer13]

6. Thune would be breaking a pledge

he had pledged to only serve 3 terms though, and his terms are up, so that makes him less likely to go back to the house.

[w4rma]

7. Has any Republcan not broken that pledge? (n/t)

[NewJerseyDem]

12. Kind of

Is it really breaking your pledge if those terms are interrupted? I'm not so sure that if Thune ran he would be doing anything wrong.

[NewJerseyDem]

13. Not necessarily

He probably doesn't want to serve in the House of Representatives. The advantages of being a senator may very well outweigh his better chances of winning back his house seat. Thune might put up a good challenge to Daschle tough. Johnson seems like an easier challenge for Thune but Daschle is much more liberal than most South Dakotans and even a little more liberal than Johnson.

It seems hard to think that Daschle and Bush could both win the state at the same time considering that they are enemies. Daschle is often critisizing Bush so if they support Bush then that means they disagree with the criticism but they support the person doing the criticism. It doesn't make any sense.

[ButterflyBlood]

14. South Dakotas will elect both Bush and Daschle for this reason

the Dakotas people are basically apolitical for the most part. They're pretty annoyed at the whole system and see criticism as just same old shit all the time. So they vote for representatives that bring home pork. Daschle does that in loads. So even if South Dakotans don't agree with his political views or criticism of Bush, all they really care about is if he brings home the bacon. Dakotans don't care about how the whole machinery in Washington goes, they just vote whoever benefits them the most.

[NewJerseyDem]

15. Daschle brings home pork?

Daschle isn't on the appropriations committee and I'm sure that republicans don't want to give South Dakota anything considering it has 2 democratic senators. If the republicans keep control of the senate then I don't see how Daschle would be better than a republican. What I have heard is that the Dakotas tend to vote on the person. They want the person to come to their town and they want to get to know the candidate. And since Daschle has served in congress for a long time he probably has met a lot of people in South Dakota many times. However, they are clearly republican leaning if they vote for Bush so it seems odd to vote for a liberal like Daschle. They have to care a little bit about the issues.

Pressler lost to Johnson in 1996. I don't know why exactly but republicans were in control of congress. Pressler could have done a much better job bringing in pork for the state than Johnson.

[wrkclskid]

18. Every Senator get's pork

No matter what the party, all politics is local, and the repukes don;t wanna be left in a posistion where the dems wont gie them pork if the majority is reversed. As partry leader, Daschle is ina posistion to pull more strings and get more.

[ButterflyBlood]

19. yep

that's how he pulls it off, he uses his power as Majority Leader. Also he makes sure the ND guys get a lot too. The Democrats have figured out something that the Republicans have yet to catch on to: all Senate seats have the same voting clout, but some cost more than others. In his last campaign, Daschle spent over $6 per every resident in SD, not every voter, every man, woman and child. In order to beat Boxer, the GOP would have to spend around $34 million to be at the same rate. The same goes for pork. Small projects can go far in small states. So the Democrats sink lots of money into the Dakotas and give them lots of pork products in exchange for 4 Senate seats at about the cost of 1/10 for one seat from California. Of course it'll be interesting to see how campaign finance laws affect this, since almost all of Daschle's money comes from out of state.

[NewJerseyDem]

20. He's minority leader

First of all, he isn't majority leader anymore so he loses a ton of power.

South Dakota does get a lot of pork. According to Citizens Against Government Waste South Dakota gets the 6th most per capita if you don't include DC. But, that is partially due to South Dakota's small size. That was also occuring when Daschle was majority leader and it does matter somewhat whether or not you're in the majority party and what position you hold. Alaska, West Virginia, and Mississippi have done pretty well for themselves over the past few years.

However, my point is that the people are going to have to vote on the same ballot for George W. Bush and Tom Daschle. Bush they agree with, Daschle they don't. I just think that a lot has changed since 1998 because now Daschle and Bush are battling one another and Daschle is constantly on the news saying things that most South Dakotans probably disagree with. This is a very different election for South Dakota then 2002 or any other senate election.

[wrkclskid]

21. Minority leader is still more powerful

Than being a freshman at the bottom rung, besides, since 2004 is bound to be close in the Senate, the possibility of Daschle being majority leader may still be valid. Minority leaders still hold a lot of sway, especially in the Senate with it's more complicated rules. I agree this election will be tough but I think he sould pull it out.

[sandnsea]

8. Another Janklow scandal

I was reading something about him raping an Indian girl or something, do you know anything about that?

[jiacinto]

9. I don't live in SD

but that story's been bounced around here.

[mndemocrat_29]

10. What about Pressler?

Does anyone out there think that Pressler would be a tough competitor. I know that he lost to Tim Johnson in 1996, but I assume that Pressler (who ran in the 2002 primary) would be the second alternate for Repukes if Thune doesn't run. As I see it, arrogant Karl Rove will probably try and run Thune for the Senate and Pressler for the House, and claim he can win both, when in reality the Democrats would be favored in both.

[nator311]

11. Pressler

He's a really flaky character, so I doubt he can be competitive anymore.

[UrbScotty]

16. If Johnson can beat Thune

(Albeit by a few hundred votes) in a GOP year, I think Daschle could handle Thune more easily.

Not that it would be easy for Daschle; of course not. But I think it would be easier.