The Top 6 House Races of 2004.- My FINAL U.S. House post!

[TakebackAmerica]

Weak Republican Incumbents


Anne Northrup- Kentucky 3rd Congressional District 52-48
Highly Competitive:

Since her 1996 election, she has survived 3 Democratic onslaughts.
Her fundraising prowess has helped hold on to the only Democratic leaning district in Kentucky. This is the only district in Kentucky that Gore carried, and it has a sizable black and union population. If Democrats put up a strong candidate, they will be in a strong position to reclaim this district.

John Hostettler- Indiana 8th Congressional District 51-46
Highly Competitive:

It was named the “Bloody Eighth” because of its reputation of close elections stemming back to 1984 when Frank McCloskey beat Richard McIntyre by 4 votes, 116,645 to 116,641. Since 1994 Rep. Hostettler has survived 4 close reelection bids. Yet Hostettler has raised only the paltry sum of $5,018.
Expect this race to be heavily targeted by Democrats, who have a top notch candidate in Jon Jennings.

Weak Republican Freshman

Max Burns- Georgia 12th Congressional District 55-45
Highly Competitive:

Max Burns was able to ride to victory during the Republican sweep in Georgia. He would be extremely vulnerable against a strong opponent. Also this is a predominantly Democratic district making Max Burns the weakest Republican freshman.

Rick Renzi - Arizona 1st Congressional District 49-46
Competitive:

This is a classic swing district. Rep. Renzi dodged a bullet when Steve Udall was upset in the Democratic primary by George Cordova. Despite outspending his opponent 2-1, he still won by only 49-46. If Steve Udall runs, or another strong Democrat gets into this race, it could quickly become one of the closest House races in America.











Weak Democratic Incumbents

D Dennis Moore- Kansas 3rd Congressional District 50-47

Highly Competitive: The sole Democratic congressman in Kansas is highly endangered. After 2 close reelection bids, expect Republicans to go aggressively after this district. If Republicans avoid their annual primary bloodbath and Bush running strong in Kansas, this could be the year Republicans defeat Rep. Moore


Most Vulnerable Democratic Freshman

D Rodney Alexander- Louisiana 5th Congressional district 50-50

Highly Competitive:
Rep. Alexander’s narrow victory over Lee Fletcher was a major upset. Republicans are expected to heavily target this race. Bush carried this predominantly conservative district by 21 points in 2000 and with Bush on top of the ticket, could make this race too close to call.


It's time to take America back.

[TakebackAmerica]

1. Please

Will anybody respond?

[sandnsea]

2. I'm not ready

Please don't give up. But could you come back with these in a few months. I just don't have the energy right now to delve into every race in the country. I'm just not up to it. Come spring time or so, I definitely will be and will jump in with both feet! People are going to elect their own local people and then I'll see where we're at.

[jfxgillis]

3. Laugh. I was so disappointed at your retirement ...

... that I just couldn't BEAR to respond.

Alexander is going to be TOUGHER to beat than the close numbers last time indicate. In Louisiana (in much of Dixie, actually), it's a ROUGH TASK dislodging a godd-ole-boy conservative Democrat once they get in. I bet the LA 5 won't be competitive again until the next census.

[wrkclskid]

4. According to what I read in roll call this summer

Alexander is very highly thought of in his district and has a high approval rating, he voted for the prescription drug benefit and the tax cut (yuck.) These votes will help him win, and keep in mind if we get a dem majority, such proposals won't be brought to the floor anyways so our more conservative dems won't vote for them.

[valphoosier]

5. did he...

vote for Pelosi?

[ButterflyBlood]

6. yes

He's worth keeping around since we can't get anyone better from the district.

*typo*

[mndemocrat_29]

7. I don't think that Alexander is vulnerable

Conservative House Democrats are almost impossible to beat in the South. Alexander did vote for Pelosi, which means he's worth keeping around. Plus, as others have mentioned, a conservative Democrat won't have as many chances to pass conservative legislation if the Democrats hold the House.

As for the other districts, Dennis Moore is a wonderful congressman and it's going to take someone better than Adam Taff (who is currently running) to beat him. As for the primary thing, a bloody primary is being anticipated, so that's always good.

IN-8, KY-3, AZ-1, and GA-12 all must go to Democrats. They are the top four seats we need to pick up in 2004. I can't stand Anne Northrup and can't wait to see her packing. I've posted several boards with some of my other selections in trying to win back the House, but we're also going to have to take on seats like GA-11, CT-2, and IA-2 if we want the House back.