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Call me a cynic, but....I've been thinking about a scenario in which Gray Davis could defeat the recall.
Let's say that by the time Election Day rolls around, Cruz Bustamante is comfortably ahead of Ahnold in the second part of the recall ballot (selecting a new governor if Davis is recalled). Certain white, ultraconservative voters (probably voting for McClintock) decide that the only thing worse than keeping Davis in office is putting a Latino there. So they go ahead and vote for McClintock or whoever on the second part of the ballot, but recognizing that they haven't got a shot, vote no on the recall so they can at least keep a white man in office.
There is a lot of racism here in California, and I grew up with people who would think exactly along those lines. There also are probably a lot of people who say they're voting for Bustamante but won't really be able to bring themselves to do it (this happened to Tom Bradley, an African-American, years ago when he was running for governor -- he lost by a lot bigger margin than polls suggested he would). So a great irony would be if the racist vote pulls this stunt and it turns out Bustamante wouldn't have won after all!
Again, this may be a cynical view of the way voters think (if at all), but while it's depressing, I don't think it's implausible....
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