Dean, Gephardt Tied in Iowa - Undecideds Hold the Key

[LuminousX]

Democratic rivals Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt are deadlocked in first among the presidential candidates in Iowa, according to a poll that shows more than a third of those surveyed undecided.

Dean, the former Vermont governor, and Gephardt, the Missouri congressman, each received 19 percent support, with Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts at 10 percent. All three were overshadowed by the 36 percent who said they have not made up their minds about the nine candidates seeking the party's nomination.

Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut each had 6 percent, while the rest of the field was at 1 percent.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2003/09/15/national1034EDT0529.DTL

The poll is +/- 4.9% and goes on to explain it is very hard to find a suitable representative sample of people in a Caucus. A handful of things interested me in this poll.

1. Dean and Gephardt are going to be throwing elbows at each other for awhile and that only helps Kerry as he will seem the least contentious. As was pointed out in another thread, the more time you spend attacking the less time you spend talking about what you are going to do to fix the problem. Dean can't afford to ignore Gephardt in Iowa and may be relying upon the wonderful Kucinich attack(*) to do some critical damage.

2. Edward's message should be appealing to Iowans and Edwards, I believe, has run some ads already in Iowa. I find it odd that he is so low in the ranking. The Edwards campaign is going to need to get creative in Iowa, but there is still time. I feel the same way about Kucinich. Kucinich's overall message should have broad appeal in Iowa, but for some reason it isn't registering with the electorate, at least if you give the polls any credence.

3. Kerry is quite aways behind Dean and Gephardt in this poll. Other polls I've seen in Iowa show the three closer together. I'm wondering if this particular poll is slightly out of whack or if Kerry has fallen below some people's radar as Dean and Gephardt make some hardcore moves in Iowa to increase their appeal.

* - The Kucinich attack was reiterated in Joe Trippi's letter to Sen. Kerry talking about Gephardt standing shoulder to shoulder with Bush in the Rose Garden. It was a subtle way of puching forward the issue while not having to take responsibility for it.

edited: posted link

[madfloridian]

1. Could you post the poll or a link, please?

Thanks.

[LuminousX]

2. Sorry

Added it into the original post.

[madfloridian]

3. Date of poll, please? I found a different result from the 10th.

..."The latest Zogby Poll of those likely to attend the Iowa Caucuses confirms Howard Dean's lead in the state:

Dean was at 23 percent; Gephardt, a Missouri congressman, 17 percent; and Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, 11 percent, in the Iowa poll conducted by Zogby International.... 6 percent of those likely to attend the caucuses chose North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, 4 percent Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman and 2 percent Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich. Florida Sen. Bob Graham, Carol Moseley Braun and retired Gen. Wesley Clark had 1 percent...."

From Dean's website. Has it changed since the 10th of September?

On edit: Just saw your link, thanks.

[CMT]

5. This poll conducted Aug 26- Sept 6

with 400 likely caucus goers. Zogby poll which has a six-point Dean lead was conducted Sept 8-9 with 500 likely caucus goers.

[CMT]

4. it is going to be nip and tuck in Iowa

but one thing is clear, Gep has to win this state to stay viable. Dean can get away with a loss and a strong second would (probably) still be interpeted by the press as a win. No one is out yet. Kerry could still come on as could Edwards. And we don't know how Clark will affect the race yet either.

[BrewCrew]

6. 15% threshold

1 thing I'm not reading enough about is this 15% threshold in a caucus. If no candidate receives 15% in a particular caucas those suporters then must decide to join another camapign or remain uncommitted. In a close caucus this can make all the difference. Most of the times, I think campaigns release their supporters to do as they please.

[LuminousX]

7. I agree

Dean can come in second and not lose his momentum due to his high standing in New Hampshire, but Gephardt needs Iowa. This is why I suspect we'll be seeing a much more aggressive and assertive Gephardt. Another thread talks about Gep as a tortoise awakening and others keep reminding people not to underestimate Gephardt.

Honestly, I have to say a good showing in Iowa won't help him too much unless he can pull out a #2 in New Hampshire and I really believe that is not going to be possible as New Hampshire is going to be divided up between Kerry and Dean. Gep may not even make the #3 spot and that just doesn't create the momentum he'll need for South Carolina.

Dean and Kerry are in a good position and Edwards never claimed he would be a strong candidate in Iowa and New Hampshire (and quite honestly, these two states don't really indicate that much, only where the money MIGHT go.)

Gephardt needs to do some amazing stuff in the lead up to the primaries to really energize people. I've never seen anyone energized by a plodding tortoise.