Edwards gaining ground in South Carolina

[jos]

So says Lee Bandy, the state's preminent political observer:

http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/politics/6768227.htm

[CMT]

1. This is good news for Edwards

because he is in the same situation as Gep is in Iowa. He has to win South Carolina. Second place will be interpeted as a big loss.

[LuminousX]

2. Agreed

No one is expecting him to do exceedingly well in Iowa or New Hampshire. South Carolina is where he is supposed to shine. If he doesn't, he will have lost campaign momentum. I don't think it puts him out of the race, just gives him bigger obstacles to overcome.

[burr]

3. Edwards has to win a solid majority in South Carolina...

like Clinton winning the Georgia primary with 57%. 45% or 49% won't do it for the only candidate who was born in that state!!!

[jos]

6. Diasgree

With this many candidates in the field, for Edwards to win 57% would make him the likely nominee. That he was born there doesn't mean anything. Do you expect Kerry or Dean to get over 50% in New Hampshire because they are from a neighboring state?

[burr]

10. We agree on this, Edwards needs such a miracle to get nominated...

Edwards is unlikely to win that percentage he needs in South Carolina. At best he will do what Gore did in 88, rack up a few modest primary victories, just not enough to make him a contender. I agree 57% is impossible to win in this crowded of a field, this is why Edwards is doomed. His only hope of winning the nomination is to win almost all of the southern delegates, not just the plurality, while using the Super Tuesday momentum to make him the indisputable frontrunner. But he does have some chance, to me politics wouldn't be worth it without its miracles.

Carville once stated that one of the 5 biggest things that contributed to Clinton's victory was the fact that Virginia Governor Doug Wilder dropped out before the primaries. From All's Fair.."Doug Wilder would have been a formidable candidate in the Southern black community. He would of taken away exactly the voters that could of put us over the top in a lot of Southern states. Bill Clinton was from the south; it would have been embarrassing for us to loss these primaries. We'd have gone from an across-the-board winner to a consistant runner-up, and lost the attention, the momentum, the confidence of the front-runner."

One final point, Clinton's first primary victory in 1992 was that 57% win in Georgia which propelled him on to his long winning streak to the nomination. Without it the primary contest would of been reduced to a three-way race between Kerrey, Tsongas, and Clinton.

[chimpymustgo]

11. A miracle? That's pretty strong language.

Especially when 2/3 of the voters are just starting to pay attention. Just as Edwards is officially announcing his campaign. Just as his numbers are starting to go up. Just as he continues to perform magnificently in all the candidate forums.

Miracle? Nope. He's right in there with the rest, and about to soar.

[burr]

12. not strong language...

just reality...to some that's strong enough.

[chimpymustgo]

18. Well burr, you seem confident about the capability of your crystal ball.

Let's just see what happens, okay?

[burr]

22. sounds ok to me...

:thumbsup:

[mndemocrat_29]

14. Without Georgia

Bob Kerrey would've been the eventual nominee. Clinton would've been seen as a low-key governor of a small state and would've been ignored. Then it would've been between Tsongas, who most saw as being unelectible or Bob Kerrey, who everyone expected to receive the nomination to begin with.

[surfermaw]

20. Not only will he win in S.C....he has ties to Thomaston ,Georgia

John Edwards knows exactly what he is doing..he not only will carry South Carolina..he has ties to Thomaston Georgia, where his dad worked in a textile mill for a while when he was traning for a job..the Edwards, family left Thomaston ,Georgia and came to Robbins, North Carolina

His chances here in North Carolina is looking very good... Cass Ballinger who a couple of years ago on CSPAN that he could do any thing he wanted, and went on to say he live in a heavily republican district.. a few days ago he was reminding Bush andd Rove, that if they didn't concentrate on the economy they might loose the election.. and would make it very difficult for Burr who is thought to be the Republican candidate for the Senate....

Elizabeth Dole, ran her campaign and in each speech climbing on to Bush's coattail... Bowles was close on her , when the campaign ended...Burr can't possibly climb on Bush coattail... I don't think it is very long in North Carolina...

Edwards knew what he was doing when he gave up the Senate race

[blm]

4. He's been running ads here for a few weeks now.

They are having an effect. People are finally beginning to pay attention down here.

[SCantiGOP]

5. Dean ads are running in SC also

And, unlike Edwards, Dean can "win" with a second place showing. I could support Edwards as the nominee, but I think Dean is the most electable of the group, especially with Gen Clark as his VP.

[LuminousX]

7. A lot of 'if's' in that

I'd like to see this thread not devolve into a Dean vs. Edwards thread.

I haven't been following Edward's campaign closely so I don't know what kind of strategy he is employing in South Carolina, but I trust he and his staff understand what they need to do to secure SC for Edwards. It is a test on many levels to see how Edwards can rally his troops on friendly ground and how he can handle heavyweights like Kerry wading into his territory.

As I have said before, if Edwards doesn't win SC, that doesn't mean he is out of the game. He has appeal across the nation, but suddenly the task become much more difficult for him. Not impossible, though.

[chimpymustgo]

8. He's picking up serious momentum right when it counts

And people like Lee Bandy are noticing. Gov. Vilsack said a couple of weeks ago, not to rule Edwards out there. He's tied for third in NH. And Edwards came in second (out of nowhere) in the service employees union endorsement.

This is very good news. Hope he keeps it up.

[surfermaw]

21. Like you...I say let the cream rise and then line up

we shouldn't be cutting and bashing democrats...bash republicans, republicans thought Sharpton was their toy to tear us apart but that didn't work..now they would like to see us tear each other to threads, I say no no no....Sharpton in fact is going to bring home the votes, and I bet the Bush family would like to have his speaking ability...he is good,

[renie408]

9. I do tend to agree

that the south is key for Edwards. But the south is key for anybody that comes out of NH and Iowa without the lead. I don't know if he needs 57%, but he needs a strong showing anywhere people are voting to win the nomination. But isn't that pretty much true of ANY candidate? And to tell you the truth, I also don't see Iowa and NH being the pivotal states that they used to be. Many candidates have built winning campaigns coming off of third or fourth in those early primaries.

[AP]

13. All the pros think that winer of SC will have momentum to win

So few people have won IA and NH, then stumbled in SC, and maybe pick up the odd state like NY later, and then get the nomination. However, many have finished 2d or lower in IA and NH, won in SC, and then went on to win the nomination.

[mndemocrat_29]

15. Edwards must win South Carolina

Because the only other people I see winning here at this point are Dean (if his momentum is unstoppable) and Lieberman. I can't stand the thought of Lieberman being the nominee, so I hope that Edwards clobbers Sen. Joe here and leaves Lieberman nothing to do but fill out the remainder of his term.

[DemDogs]

16. SC voters

Democratic voters in South Carolina are much like Democratic voters in North Carolina: a substantial African-American vote, white urban and suburban voters, and yellow dog rural whites. In a seven person field when Edwards ran for the Senate in North Carolina, he was also an unknown, but he won more than 40% of the vote -- against other Southerners. Edwards will win South Carolina.
Dean is contesting it and running television and radio ads there (Edwards is only on television). And Dean is not ahead and will never be ahead in South Carolina. I have no idea why he is throwing his money away down here. Maybe he knows what we all know: that we have to be able to win Southern states and he thinks this is his chance to prove he can, but if that is his thinking he is about to learn otherwise.

[renie408]

17. I am telling you

the South's dirty little secret...

If there is one of 'us' and a Yankee running for anything, we will go for our boy every time. Gore didn't count because he wasn't really one of US. He left the south and didn't look back until he needed her. I think Edwards chances are very good down here in both the primaries and the national election. He just has to manage to seem proud of his southern heritage while not looking like a hick.

[chimpymustgo]

19. Damn skippy, renie. And Edwards represents the good that southerners

want to see in themselves. He's going to kick ass across Dixie (and do respectably in Iowa and NH!).

Go Johnny go!