Good news for NM-2

[mndemocrat_29]

Bree Hocking wrote an article about Gary King, son of former New Mexico Gov. Bruce King, and how he may be running against freshman Rep. Steve Pearce.

Here's the link:

http://www.rollcall.com/pub/49_26/politics/2892-1.html

I think that Gary King could overtake Pearce. Pearce is an archconservative who nearly lost to a poor campaigner last time around and this is a moderate district. King's instant name recognition will help and I think that this would be a very good shot at a pickup.

[Brucey]

1. Good news, NM is looking better all the time.

[mndemocrat_29]

3. Now if we can just beat Heather Wilson in NM-1

We'd have two pickups and 4 out of the 5 congressional seats from New Mexico (with Pete Domenici the only remaining Repuke). Does anyone think that Richard Romero would do better the second time around?

[Lexingtonian]

5. It'll be closer

Both districts do underperform for Democrats because Latino voters don't turn out to vote at a high enough rate.

Basically Romero can only do better but Wilson is pretty solidly entrenched. She plans to run for the Senate seat Domenici seems to be planning to retire from in '06- if Romero knocks her off in '04 that would be a twofer, really. Wilson is obviously watching the district turn Democratic and gambling she can pull off one more win there. The New Mexico Republican turnout advantage over Democrats in '02 was significantly above the national average of 7%- my guesstimate is about 12%-15%- so NM-1 is probably at least 48% Democratic in '04 if the Greens don't interfere.

My sense is that NM-1 is noentheless easier for Democrats to win than NM-2. Getting Reuben Smith to run again would be a good thing.

[CMT]

2. this is good news

thanks for the news.

[goobergunch]

4. Good. (n/t)