WP:Dean Faces Uphill Battle in Courting S.C. Blacks

[DJcairo]

Dean Faces Uphill Battle in Courting S.C. Blacks
Democratic Presidential Contender's Claim About Race Meets Some Skepticism in Key Primary State

By Darryl Fears
Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, September 20, 2003; Page A08


COLUMBIA, S.C. -- When a waitress at Bert's Bar and Grill slipped a plate of spareribs between Thomas Dameron's thick forearms, he barely seemed to notice. He was already trying to digest something Howard Dean had said.

It was the former Vermont governor's claim that he is "the only white politician that ever talks about race in front of white audiences," made at the Sept. 9 debate among the Democratic presidential candidates. The debate was sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus Institute and Fox News.

"Did he really say that?" Dameron asked.

Then his face went blank. "If he has to ring his own bell, then his bell must not be very loud," the 44-year-old technical engineer said.

In the campaign for the Democratic nomination, the reactions of Dameron and other black South Carolinians will become increasingly important through the fall: The state's Feb. 3 presidential primary will be the first in which African Americans vote in significant numbers. Dean's Internet-fed campaign has led the pack in fundraising and had buoyant poll numbers. But his support has come overwhelmingly from white voters in a race in which African American votes are essential for victory. In a recent nationwide poll taken by Zogby International, only 10 percent of likely black voters favored Dean.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37272-2003Sep19.html

[jeter]

1. This is good news for Dean

It means that he has only one way to go with African Americans. Certainly he has to do more to court African Americans. He needs them to win, plain and simple. Remember Eugene McCarthy.

BUT, if Dean does well with African Americans, then his numbers will go up. Example, African Americans make up about 30% of the Democratic Base. Dean, according to the article above, is polling 10%. Which means that 3% of the 16% he polls nationally comes from African Americans, while 13% comes from whites. His issues are issues that black people would support. A national health care plan, industrial strategy, opposition to war. If he polls say 30% from blacks, he would be at 22% nationally. If he polls 50% among blacks he would be at close to 30% nationally.

Come on Dean. Get to work, don't fuck this up.

[dsc]

2. Of course they don't tell what his overall support in that poll was

but I seem to recall it was 12% when it was posted here. Let's assume for a minute it was 16% which was his best showing in a national poll. Let us also assume that 1/2 of primary voters are black (I think that is a high guess). He has 10% of the black vote according to that poll which equates to 5% in my senario. That gives him 22% of white voters. While that is a substantial gap it is hardly overwhelming. And given that there are two black candidates in the race that is pretty decent. Another lazily written piece by a math addled journalist. BTW if we use the more accurate 12% figure the difference becomes 14 to 10 which isn't overwhelming no matter how one spins it. I looked it was 16%. But I think a more accurate factor is 1/4 of the vote instead of 1/2. Blacks were around 12% of the total electorate with around 90% voting Dem. That would be around 11% out of 49% (what Gore got) which is 1/4. Using that figure gives us 2.5% of his vote coming from blacks and 13.5% of his vote coming from whites. His ratio would be 4% to 12% if he were equally likely to appeal to both races. A significant difference to be sure but hardly overwhelming.

[CMT]

3. the media is focusing only on Dean on this question

but most of our candidates are not faring well or shaking up the minority community--YET. Not Dean, Not Kerry, Not Gep, Not Kucinich or Graham. Not even Sharpton or Braun are getting the kind of excitement in the African-American community that Jesse Jackson got on his two runs for the White House. Some polls show Joe Lieberman doing best among minority voters--but I think that is based on name recognition more than anything. I think Edwards has potential, but that is yet to be seen.

I'm glad though that Dean is facing up to the problem. Buying time on African-American stations in SC and here in Wisconsin as part of Dean exposure day--there is a big leaflet drop in African-American sections of Milwaukee--later today.