Bush Approval falls under 50% in New Jersey

[CMT]

A new Quinnipiac University poll released today indicates that George W. Bush approval rating has dropped dramtically since April. That month he had a 67-29 approval rating in state. Today his approval rating is 49% and disapproval is 47%.

The poll also shows that we have a tight five way race for the nomination in New Jersey, with Gen. Clark's entering hurting Lieberman the most--still Lieberman continues to hold a narrow lead in the state:

Lieberman: 17% (down from 26% in June)
Clark: 16%
Kerry 14% (down from 15% in June)
Gephardt 13% (no change from June)
Dean: 12% (up from 6% in June)
Sharpton 9% (up from 8% in June)
Edwards 4% (up from 6% in June)
Graham 1% (down from 3% in June)
Mosley Braun 2% (down from 5% in June)
Kucinich under 1%

Lieberman loses nine-points in the state between now and June. Dean doubles his support during the same point going from 6% to 12% and Wes Clark comes into the race strongly moving into second place. The poll was taken last week.

In matchups against potential dem candidates--Bush leads all in the state but the leads have all dwindled since June--and against none does he have an insurmountable lead.

Bush v. Lieberman 49-44
Bush v. Kerry 48-43
Bush vs. Gep 48-44
Bush vs. Clark 47-42
Bush vs. Dean 50-40

All the candidates reversed the trend of Bush leading them among union households:
Among union households here is how the Bush vs. Dem race looks in NJ:
Bush: 41%
Clark: 45%

Bush: 43%
Lieberman: 50%

Bush: 40%
Kerry: 52%

Bush: 40%
Gep: 53%

Bush: 42%
Dean: 52%

In Urban parts of the state our candidates are whiping up with Bush:
Clark: 58%
Bush: 32%

Lieberman: 59%
Bush: 32%

Kerry: 56%
Bush: 32%

Gephardt: 53%
Bush: 33%

Dean: 55%
Bush: 33%

In the Urban Suburbs our candidates are close to Bush:
Clark: 41%
Bush: 47%

Lieberman: 45%
Bush: 47%

Kerry: 44%
Bush: 49%

Gep: 45%
Bush: 49%

Dean: 42%
Bush: 50%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x8255.xml

[sjr5740]

1. Lets get those types of numbers nationwide

and then I will celebrate..


SJR

[sandnsea]

2. Gephardt

He sure has alot of very strong union support. Should we be taking a closer look at him? Do we risk losing strong, vocal union support without Gep?

I'm not interested in the union support of the other candidates, but whether we've given Gephardt a fair shake considering *his* union support.

[CMT]

3. yes he does

but statistically his union numbers aren't much diffenent than some of the other candidates in NJ. He leads Bush by 13% compared to Kerry who has a 12-point lead and Dean who has a 10-point lead among union members in NJ. Only Lieberman and Clark are under double-digits with leads of 7% (Lieberman) and 4% (Clark) among union members in the state.

[sandnsea]

6. I was thinking nationally

He has strong union support everywhere and several national endorsements already. And he does have some of that heartland aura to his message still. I just don't think he could beat Bush, but I also don't know why unions would get behind a guy they didn't think could beat Bush. Trying to figure out if there's some part of the equation that I'm missing.

And again, I don't care about Dean or any other candidate. I was trying to get input on Gephardt and the union situation specifically.

[mndemocrat_29]

4. The great thing about Gephardt's union support

Is that he would be the most likely candidate to win in states like West Virginia. However, I feel that several other candidates (among them Clark, Edwards, and Kerry) could also garner this type of union support eventually.

[CMT]

5. but if you look at this poll

Dean is right in the thick of it with union support, for example he leads Bush in NJ among union members by ten-points (Gep has a 13-point lead) while Clark leads by only four-points among union members.
I think Dean's stance on gun also helps in W. Va.