South Carolina poll numbers

[robbedvoter]

Edwards 23 (14)
> Undecided 23 (26)
> Clark 13 (*)
> Lieberman 8 (17)
> Sharpton 8 (8)
> Dean 7 (4)
> Gephardt 6 (14)
> Braun 5 (4)
> Graham 4 (6)
> Kerry 3 (6)
> Kucinich 1 (1) http://www.dailykos.com/archives/004302.html#004302
>

[AP]

1. Those are internal poll results from the Edwards campaign

The article notes that these numbers were higher than other polls in the past, but there's no reason to question the trend.

I think if Edwards wins SC, he gets the nomination.

I think that the public remembers Bush beating McCain in SC in 2000 and there's a popular perception that this is a watershed moment in the presidential campaign. They'll take a closer look at whomever wins SC.

However, if Edwards wins SC, I think the media will try very hard to deflate his candidacy.

[CMT]

4. winning SC would keep him in the race

but not necessarily the nomination. It could be like '88 when Gore won several southern states but didn't do much outside of the south and Dukakis was nominated easily.

also if these internal polls are correct it indicates a tight race in Iowa between Dean and Kerry with Gep falling to third, in a must-win state for him.

Also, Dean from Vermont has almost doubled his support--while Kerry has lost half of his support. All Dean has to do, imo, is come in the top three to call it a win.

[tsipple]

6. Edwards Must Win SC

The SC winner gets to stay in the race, in my opinion. And I think Edwards is the guy (and not Lieberman).

Then he has to win another state quickly and fairly convincingly. Oklahoma is his target, I believe. And I think he just might do that, too.

I do not count out John Edwards at all.

[sandnsea]

2. Wohoo!!

Great news for Edwards and he's coming up in Iowa too. Dean and Kerry are neck and neck. I'm rootin' for that Kerry/Edwards ticket but if it goes Edwards/Kerry, I'm on board for that too!!

Iowa
Dean 21 (12)
Kerry 20 (14)
Gephardt 18 (24)
Undecided 16 (25)
Edwards 10 (4)
Clark 7 (*)
Lieberman 6 (11)
Braun 1 (1)
Graham 1 (2)
Kucinich 1 (4)
Sharpton 0 (1)

[BrewCrew]

3. he's a strong candidate

although a strong Gephardt supporter, I'd be more than happy with a John Edwards nomination. He's definitely moved up to be a strong 2nd in my personal preference internal poll. He's campaign seems to have had a good strategy focus on money for the first seven months and then spend that money getting the message out for the last 5. Voters like what they hear and see from the guy and I can't blame them.

He has a strong labor/union record also. That'll be key in those industrial states if he gets the nommy. Personally, I think an Edwards/Granholm tickets could win every state, but some in the Mountain West. Too bad she's from Canada.

[sandnsea]

5. Why Gephardt?

This is an inquiry, not a flame bait.

I asked over in the NJ union thread about Gephardt's support from union workers. While I understand that aspect, I wonder whether/why union people think Gephardt can really beat Bush. And what will union people do if Gephardt doesn't win. Will they get behind the Dem candidate with the same enthusiasm? Just really interested in all the early support for Gephardt from unions and what they see that I might be missing.

[BrewCrew]

11. Why Gephardt?

sandnsea thanks for the question. Gep's deep union support comes mostly from industrial unions. Why? These unions unlike the service unions of like AFSCME, UCFW, or SEIU have been devastated by this country's deplorable trade policies of the past 15 years or so. That is why you've seen the Teamsters, Machinists, Steelworkers, Laborers, Bricklayers, Boilermakers and etc be quick to endorse Gephardt.

Trade is the main issue of the industrial unions, so I think a lot of unions and union folk have a deep loyalty to Dick because he's been there for them time and time again on trade issues. Not only has he been there, but led the vote against NAFTA, China PNTR, Fast Track 1997, Fast Track 2002, and most recently the Singapore and Chilean Trade agreements. In 1993, Gephardt told Clinton that the implementation of NAFTA would result in a "race to the bottom" where manufacturers would seek out the cheapest labor force available. And you know what? HE WAS RIGHT! Now manufacturers are even moving from Mexico to cheaper labor markets in China and India. It's a "Race to the Bottom" and its killing our industrial unions. I think the Machinists, Steelworkers, and Laborers have lost over a million members combined. It's really a sad situation and show no signs of improving.

Time and time again Congressman Gephardt has been there for the union folk of this country. Now I think they see it as an opportunity to be there for him. Well the industrial unions at least. Now about the AFL-CIO endorsement. Like I said the membership of these industrial unions that have been devastated by our trade policies are losing members, but the service unions are growing. So those loyal to Gep just don't have the pull they had in years past. If this was 1984 or even 1992, Gephardt would have already won their endorsement because the majority of union members then were in industrial unions. So it would be a shock to me if the Gep got the AFL endorsement pre-primary.

Labor hates GW Bush, so I think we'd get enthusastic behind any of these guys, even Lieberman, but with some reservations. Joe is a free trade hawk w/out reservations. Bush is killing labor, but our trade policies adopted under Clinton did a lot of harm also. So I like the industrial unions will be a little wary about any besides Gephardt, because most of these guys (esepcially top-tier) supported NAFTA and/or China PNTR. Don't worry labor will be there for the nominee, Bush must go and unions understand that. We love the Gep he's been there for us and now we see it as the best opportunity to get a REAL GODD FRIEND in the White House. You'd do it for your friend

[AP]

7. Granholm was born in Vancouver, BC, CAN. She can't be on the ticket

But I'd love to see her become a member of the Edwards cabinet if she choses not to run for Governor again. Ideally, she'd get two terms in MI to entrench a liberal democracy there. It's an important state, from a national perspective. I think she'd make a very good Atty Gen'l someday, and maybe a SC judge too.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

8. He's starting to get some separation.

Good for Edwards.

[DJcairo]

9. Dailykos points out SC numbers are probably off

The 14 Edwards apparently had June was way higher than most other polls were giving him.

[AP]

10. I think other polls had him at 10 and 11 -- still in first place.

Begs the question, are the other polls low-balling Edwards. One of the Republican memes is "when's this guy going to attract any attention at all?" and you can't say that unless you have polls that are low. I know it's a chicken and egg thing.

Obviously, Edwards wants to show polling with him in a big lead, but the conservatives have a serious interest in seeing Edwards not do well in the polls.