Zogby poll of LIKELY VOTERS show Dean leads

[ConservativeDemocrat]

Dean Momentum Moves to Iowa; Captures Front-runner Status from Gephardt in latest Zogby International Poll

Former Vermont Governor Dr. Howard Dean continues to build support in search of the Democratic presidential nomination. In September 8-9 polling of 500 likely Iowa voters in the January Democratic caucus, Dean captured the lead with 23%, moving the earlier leader, Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt, to second spot with 17%.

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry was third with 11%. No other candidate reached double digits, including Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman, who was a close second in January Iowa polling.

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Please note a couple of things about polls. The only ones really worthwhile are those that canvass likely voters. I'm a Precint Captain and I can tell you outright that Democrats are plagued with people who whine and complain but never seem to make it down to the voting booth. If they did, we'd win every time. Any poll that surveys "all registered Democrats and Democratic leaners" isn't worth the paper it's written on.

Second, tracking polls are more informative because they use the same methodology over time, showing true changes in opinion.

Both point to the same thing: whether you like Dean or hate him, he is the candidate with the momentum in Iowa. Go see for yourself.

[Renew Deal]

1. Taken Sept. 8-9

Before Clark announced.

[ConservativeDemocrat]

3. Point granted...

If Dean voters are really frustrated Clark voters then the good Doctor may be in trouble. But it could also be that Clark will attract people who were going to vote for Kerry, the other war hero in the race. (Boy that makes me proud - we've got two war heros, they've got a deserter).

So it's too soon to tell either way.

[expatriot]

7. I've seen a post-Clark entrance poll from IA, and...

... I don't have a link so you don't have to believe me but I remember seeing Clark at 8% and Dean still holding the lead but not as impressively as here.

[expatriot]

9. You see, despite the national numbers, Clark is gonna have a harder time..

... in early states like NH & IA and to a lesser extent the Feb. 3rd primaries of AZ, MO, DE, SC, since the other leaders have been working hard building core groups in those states, core groups that are reluctant to ditch their favorite for such a late comer.

If I was the Clark campaign, (and mind you I am very pro-Dean) I would do the very unconventional strategy of saying the hell with IA and NH and focus on the 2/3 primaries... Missouri and Oklahoma both could be in his column, AZ could be if he hit us hard. and SC and etc. I

[Cha]

2. I don't "like or hate Dean"! I love him! The Dean campaign

has definetly struck my fancy and being a part of this Grassroots Movement; I'm so happy to see Dean up there in the polls whether they are fickle or not...I know Dean is getting his message out through Hard Work and his volunteers' "Mouse pads and shoe leather" and I will add & Soul!

[Larkspur]

4. Here's what I find VERY INTERESTING

Dean is the favorite of Democrats who intend to vote in Iowa’s primary, at 25%. Gephardt is the leader among Independents at 16%. Union members favor Dean with 24% of their support, followed by Gephardt (20%), and Kerry (17%).
Those Union endorsements don't seem to be helping Geppy or Kerry, and neither does Gep's attacks on Dean.

Dean has risen from relative obscurity in Iowa in January, when he was fifth of seven candidates, to the top spot in September. He took votes from every other candidate except Edwards, who had a 2-point gain.

Dean leads with self-described progressives (37%) and liberals (34%), while Gephardt is favored by moderates (19%) and conservatives (16%).
So Gep has taken Lieberman's voters, the moderates and conservatives. Interesting.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. It's a caucus

it's all a matter of "packing" the precinct hall.
FYI Pat Robertson outpolled GHW Bush in the 1988 Iowa caucus. So....... good luck with the momentum thing. :hi:

[dsc]

16. Yeah but unlike Robertson

Dean will have more money than his opponents and will also be leading in New Hampshire. Robertson came in either third of fourth there in 88. Dean may well come into Feburary as the winner of both New Hampshire and Iowa and the top fundraiser. That would be phenominal.

[quinnox]

6. More recent polls show Dean/Gephardt in a virtual tie

This is old news.

[Nicholas_J]

15. Most Recent Iowa Polls have

Dean and Gephardt tied at 19 percent each.

Dean, Gephardt tie atop Iowa poll
Large number of voters remain undecided
Monday, September 15, 2003 Posted: 12:07 PM EDT (1607 GMT)



DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) -- Democratic rivals Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt are deadlocked in first among the presidential candidates in Iowa, according to a poll that shows more than a third of those surveyed undecided.

Dean, the former Vermont governor, and Gephardt, the Missouri congressman, each received 19 percent support, with Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts at 10 percent. All three were overshadowed by the 36 percent who said they have not made up their minds about the nine candidates seeking the party's nomination.

http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/09/15/elec04.poll.prez.iowa.poll.ap/

Read another article today in which a number of pollsters were interviewed and most indicated that they expected the people in the lead now to fall behind by December. Will not bothther linking as a flame fest would result.

[Cappurr]

8. If Dean Wins Iowa it will be the end of Gebhardt

And a real coup for Dean. I'm not a Dean supporter, but neither am I against him. I just have concerns about his mainstream appeal. But you gotta respect the hell out of the guy. He has worked his ass off. He has taken courageous stands and he has tapped into the Democratic anger at their own representives who have let Bush steam-roll them.

[returnable]

10. I agree

Iowa is a must-win for Gephardt, and if Dean can take that vote, more power to him.

Personally, I'll be glad to see Gephardt gone. But that's probably another thread in itself :)

[quinnox]

11. "But you gotta respect the hell out of the guy"

No you don't.

[Cha]

12. Yeah we know you don't have any "repect" ...au contraire...

you use every available space to come up with derisive Dean remarks.

[PAMod]

14. Just remember to fall in line

if Dean is the nominee, please.

[DJcairo]

13. The poll is a month old and is a dupe x3