Dean has double-digit New Hampshire lead over Kerry

[Freddie Stubbs]

POUGHKEEPSIE, N.Y. (AP) - Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is sporting a double-digit lead over Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts among New Hampshire's Democratic voters, a poll reported Thursday.

The poll, from Marist College's Institute for Public Opinion, had Dean at 36 percent among Democratic voters; Kerry at 24 percent; and former Gen. Wesley Clark, who entered the race just last week, at 8 percent. The seven other candidates trailed those three.

When independents who have expressed an interest in voting in the Democratic primary _ as is allowed in the Granite State _ are included in the mix, Dean leads at 35 percent followed by Kerry at 22 percent and Clark at 11 percent. None of other contenders broke double digits.

"It's clearly a two-person race at the moment in New Hampshire, but Clark has established a presence there and is a force to be reckoned with," said Lee Miringoff, head of the Poughkeepsie, N.Y.-based institute.

more: http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/Main.asp?SectionID=25&SubSectionID=354&ArticleID=89814

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. Ouch.

The poll found 79 percent of New Hampshire voters questioned believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction.

[AWD]

2. Back up to 12 percent

...I thought I heard the sound of crickets.

So I checked the polls and saw Dean back up by 12 points in NH.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. Click link.

Cricket





Now, run the audio through your Universal Translator software. The cricket can be clearly heard to be saying "Dean. Dean."

[RogueTrooper]

5. Where did you swipe the audio of Kerry's pet cricket

RiF? Good find :evilgrin:

[MercutioATC]

4. But...but...Dean's campaign is fizzling, remember?

Bwaaaahaaaahaaaahaaaa

:evilgrin:

[NewYorkerfromMass]

6. More important: Numbers which include independents:

Dean leads at 35 percent followed by Kerry at 22 percent and Clark at 11. Either way I don't care, Dean can only go down from this peak.

[RogueTrooper]

7. Wishing and hoping campaigning NYfM

You are wishing the Dean has peaked and hoping that he will go down in the polls.

[AWD]

10. Wishes and prayers...

...are all they've got.

If they had a plan for the campaign (besides the "What Did Dean Do Last Week" plan), there'd be a different story.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

11. I have some numbers which support this fact

New Hampshire Democratic Primary results for:

1988
Michael Dukakis 44,112 36.4% (Governor Mass.)
Dick Gephardt 24,513 20.3%
Paul Simon 21,094 17.4%
Jesse Jackson 9,615 8.0%
Al Gore 8,400 6.9%
Bruce Babbitt 5,644 4.7%
Gary Hart 4,888 4.0

1992
Paul E. Tsongas 55,666 33.2% (Fmr. Senator Mass.)
"Bill" Clinton 41,542 24.8% (Gov. Arkansas)
"Bob" Kerrey 18,584 11.1%
"Tom" Harkin 17,063 10.2%
Edmund G. "Jerry" Brown, Jr. 13,660 8.0

1984
Gary Hart 37,702 37.3% (Senator Colorado)
Walter F. Mondale 18,173 27.9% (Fmr. VP- Minnesota)
John Glenn 12,088 12.0%
Jesse Jackson 5,311 5.3%
George McGovern 5,217 5.2%

1960
John F. Kennedy 43,372 85.2% (Senator Mass.)
Paul C. Fisher 6,853
Stuart Symington* 183
Adlai Stvenson* 168
Richard M. Nixon* 164
and all others 14.8% http://www.politicallibrary.org/Primary.htm

So I can say, with the help of historical perspective, that John Kerry has 2 things in his favor: He is from Massachusetts, and he is a sitting Senator. Note that even former Senator Paul Tsongas benefitted from being a Bay Stater. Now even though Dean is from neighboring Vermont, his liability is that he is NOT a sitting governor- (note Clinton's performance after Tsongas) The best Dean can hope for is to match Jimmy Carter's 28% he got in 1976 against a very weak field that included rep. Morris Udall of AZ (22.7%) Sen. Birch Bayh IN (15.2%) others: Fred R. Harris 8,863 10.8%, R. Sargent Shriver 6,743 8.2%, Hubert Humphrey 4,596 5.6%, Henry M. Jackson 1,857 2.3%, George Wallace 1,061 1.3%

[DrFunkenstein]

8. It'll Be Interesting To See The Numbers After His Debate Performance

Americans love a man that can keep his cool under fire. Dean was practically The Fonz yesterday, and the subsequent news reports let everybody know just how controlled he was/is.

[RogueTrooper]

9. What do you mean?

What news reports are you talking about?

[LuminousX]

12. This, for one.

http://slate.msn.com/id/2088895/

Democratic partisans are probably dismayed by all the criticism, but the truth is that if Dean wins the nomination, he'll have been made stronger by the gantlet he's being forced to run. And if he can't beat what he calls "Bush Lite," how can he expect to beat the real thing?

Besides, despite the attacks, Dean came out of the debate OK. But I think he's going to be in trouble if he doesn't come up with some sort of tax cut (under the guise of the "tax reform" he promised in a Wall Street Journal op-ed). For the first time in any of the three debates, his armor was just a tiny bit dented. The funny thing is the candidates who are doing the denting—Edwards, Gephardt, Kerry, and Lieberman—aren't going to benefit from it. The Unmentioned 10th Candidate is.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

14. If Dean can't beat "Bush Lite"... HA HA HA!!!!

Boy, if this is how "Bush Lite" dents his armor I think he's in for some critically damaging blows sooner than later.

[DrFunkenstein]

13. One Example

"The series of attacks prompted Dean to complain at one point, "You know, to listen to Senator Lieberman, Senator Kerry, Representative Gephardt, I'm anti-Israel, I'm antitrade, I'm anti-Medicare, and I'm anti-Social Security. I wonder how I ended up in the Democratic Party."

As some members of the audience laughed, Dean added, "I'm not a new entrant to the Democratic Party. I've been here a long time."

At another point, a visibly angry Dean lashed back at Gephardt for linking him to Gingrich, a despised figure in Democratic circles because of his ideological, confrontational leadership of the House of Representatives from 1995 to 1998."

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2003/09/26/clark_and_dean_in_spotlight_as_candidates_spar/

[w4rma]

15. DrFunkenstein is complementing Dean?

:wow::wow::wow: