Kerry closing the gap in NH, Clark cuts into Dean's independent support

[Feanorcurufinwe]

Zogby International conducted interviews of 512 New Hampshire likely Democratic primary voters, chosen at random statewide. All calls were made from Zogby International’s headquarters in Utica, NY from September 24-25, 2003. The margin of error is +/- 4.5%. Margins are higher in sub-groups. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, religion, and gender to more accurately reflect the voting population.

Month Dean % Kerry %

September 03 30 20

August 03 38 17

June 03 22 25

February 03 13 26


Pollster John Zogby: "Clark has jumped into third place as a result of his dramatic entry -- but his numbers are not enough yet to put him in the running with Dean and Kerry. It is unlikely that he will get a bounce from the Iowa caucuses, thus he is going to have to spend a lot of time in New Hampshire. Al Gore tried to by pass the first two states and focus on the South in 1988 and it did not work. There is evidence in this poll that Clark has cut into Dean's Independent support, a major reason for Dean's drop from 38% to 30%. Kerry's support is up from August so he is a real contender in his neighboring state. Gephardt is just on the radar screen -- but he will have to do very well in Iowa. Fewer Democratic primary voters are now saying that President Bush is likely to win in 2004. That is a good sign for these candidates."
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=741

[diplomats]

1. I like this line:

"Fewer Democratic primary voters are now saying that President Bush is likely to win in 2004. That is a good sign for these candidates."

[RevolutionStartsNow]

2. Best chance of beating Bush

When asked which candidate has the best chance of defeating Bush, likely primary voters in New Hampshire are nearly equally divided between Dean (26%) and Kerry (24%), with Clark in third place at 19%.

Dean's huge margin on Kerry has thinned, as expected, but it looks like that's mostly because of Clark. Interesting to watch this one. Is Clark actively campaigning there?

[DrFunkenstein]

3. I Saw A Clark Office When I Went

To volunteer for the Kerry campaign last weekend. On the other side was the Dean office. It was interesting to see the three so close together, but the staff people said it was very common, because cheap office space tends to be in the same area.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

5. Do you think

they have lunch together? Or do they steal each other's mail? TP each other's offices? Send huge pizza orders to each other?

[UnapologeticLiberal]

6. Wow! That is good news

In previous polls voters have seemed to prefer Dean but think Kerry is more electable, and that scared me, because i am afraid some voters in NH will switch to Kerry at the last minute if they still think that. So the fact that people are starting to see Dean as electable is great news.


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[PAMod]

8. That's my take too.

"Electability" is a big deal here on DU and in the real world.

It is a bogus argument, in my opinion, but I'm glad Dean's numbers have climbed.

[WatchWhatISay]

4. Just wait until us Dean's Texas Rangers get through the state!

We will be out blockwalking for Dean tomorrow and Sunday. Any New Hampshire DUers out there?

[ModerateMiddle]

7. an interesting aspect of that poll

is the favorable/unfavorables. I certainly would have thought that MANY more folks in NH were familiar with both Dean and Kerry than this shows, but it underlines how early it is in this race.

The numbers for Dean and Kerry:

Candidate September 2003 % August 2003 %
Dean 72/12/14 71/9/19
Kerry 72/21/6 66/19/13

The change in "unfamiliar" was 5 points for Dean - and only 1 point increase in favorable. The change for Kerry was 7 points, and 5 or 6 of those landed in the favorable column.

What's up with that?

[Larkspur]

9. I think Dean will regain momentum after the Texas rangers

criss-cross NH and Dean's 3rd QTR totals get widespread media coverage.

Dean will be on Jay Leno Sep 30, Face The Nation this Sunday, so he'll get more media exposure before the final totals are set. He has already broken Clinton's record, a feat that has been kept kind of quiet by the media because of Clark. It will be interesting to see the final totals for each campaign.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

10. Do voters really pick a candidate because he raised more money?

I mean, no one can dispute the value of having money to spend on ads, etc. but have you ever in you life heard someone say:

"I'm voting for candidate X because he raised more campaign funds than candidate Y"


No, you haven't. And you never will.

[PAMod]

11. Of course not, but if you don't have money...

you can't run ads, you can't put operatives on the ground in the states, you can't make yourself known to the voters.

Look how Clark is huge all over the country (thanks to UNPRECEDENTED national media coverage of his announcement), except in the states where the other candidates have spent time & money; run ads, etc.

People aren't going to elect someone they don't know. The only way to get known is shoe leather & media buys. Both cost money - a lot of it.

Losers can't raise money, and you can't win without money.

If elective politics was easy, anybody could do it.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

15. I was responding to the comment

"I think Dean will regain momentum after the Texas rangers criss-cross NH and Dean's 3rd QTR totals get widespread media coverage."

And my point is that no one except other politicians ever supported a candidate because of their ability to raise funds. So media coverage of his fundraising is unlikely to have an impact.

As you point out, it is what you do with the money that gains support. If you're lucky.

[PAMod]

17. Got it.

You are correct about that, though any positive free media attention can only be a good thing, especially if they report that Dean's money is coming in small hits from lots of people.

[Larkspur]

12. Beating Clinton's sngle QTR fundraising record will give Dean free media

headlines and exposure, thereby getting his name out on a national level and showing that he is the most popular of the 10 Dem nominees, who won't be coming near him this quarter. That will affect many peoples perception of Dean from a lucky insurgent to a bona fide front-runner who's organized and energetic.

People-powered Howard's fundraising goals are not just for the funds, but for the media exposure it attracts.

[PAMod]

14. Excellent point

Almost seems unfair, doesn't it?

[RevolutionStartsNow]

16. Money=advertising=exposure=votes

Every candidate would love to be earning as much money as Dean right now. Of course it doesn't guarantee anything, but even beyond the obvious advantage of having money for campaigning and advertising, the
impact is that Dean will get a huge amount of attention for his fundraising. It will cement his frontrunner status. Remember, success breeds success.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

18. If we were to pick the President based on who could raise the most money

we could just all go home and let them coronate Bush.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

19. Yeah, but * sucks!

There's something we can agree on!

[dsc]

20. News flash we have been doing that

In at least every races since 76 the Democrat who has raised the most money in the year before the race has won. In 84 Mondale buried Hart with money after Hart did well in NH. In 88 Dukakis used money to fight SuperTuesday to a draw delegate wise (He won Texas, Florida, and Lousiana). And Clinton used money in 92 to parley his second place finish in NH to Super Tuesday gold. There is a reason Dean is being considered the front runner despite not leading any national polls and only being tied (statisticly in NH and IA) and that reason is money.

[goobergunch]

13. Interesting... (n/t)

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