The Poll numbers in California don't make sense

[Carl21014]

If Arnold has 45%, Bustemante is at 30% and McLintock has 18%, that means 63% of voters are going to vote Republican! In California?

What the hell is going on that heavily Democratic California is overwhemingly going Republican?

It's like being punched in the stomach!

[Freddie Stubbs]

1. Arnold is appealing to Democrats and Independents

He is pro-choice and pro-gay rights. Moderate Republicans have been elected in California, such as Pete Wlson, who was reelected Governor less than ten years ago.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. If Dem's support the Groper then Cali is NOT really a Democratic

state!!!! It's all B.S then if they will give the Bushies another victory!!!

[ButterflyBlood]

14. Arnold is not Bush

just because they vote for him doesn't mean they'll vote for Bush.

[coralrf]

5. He is not appealing to them at all.

The polls of the last week have been unscientific, small sample polls by minor right wing rags. THere have been at leat 2, perhaps more that came from winger tabloids and like all GOP polls meant to dictate opinion not reveal it.

The large, well conducted polls show Beefcake and Cruz in a close heat. Davis’s surge is slowing as those that want Cruz are not willing to risk a no on the recall and are opting to vote yeas to get their man in.

This is an unusual election. Californians tend to be liberal and I think they will reflect that in Oct. Ahhhnie has put his foot in his mouth many times of late with the noted exception of when he shuts up like a clam when asked to debate Davis. This will be hammered in by Davis I am sure.

Currently the recall is just a media circus and it will stay that way for another week. Then it will be serious business at the pools. I think many folks will make their final decision when looking at that ballot or that touch screen. Much like looking at a menue in a steakhouse, the final decision will reflect the reality of what we are about to do. Order the fish.

Ahhnie will have another week to chicken out and gaffe. In the end however, if Swartzie is Gov the Democrats will have no one to blame but themselves for being hoodwinked into a GOP mindset. I am rather surprised that the GOP was able to pull that off there. It should be a wake up call.

[rock]

2. The polls are crap

Just made up numbers. No reality.

[iamalevi2]

4. Sorry, they are probably right

#1's reply is one big reason. The second, sad to say, is r-nolds movie popularity. By the way, anytime you hear a policitian say they don't pay attention to polls or the polls are wrong, they're losing.

[buff2]

6. The media whores are cheerleading for the Bu$h nazis

They are wanting the groper in.....so up goes his poll numbers to discourage dems to get out and vote......thinking groper's already got it in the bag. Yep....it's the media whores at work again! :grr:

[davhill]

7. California is not always Democratic

It's the state that gave us Nixon, Reagan, and Wilson

[davidinalameda]

8. I don't believe the poll numbers

I can't see a ten point swing in the recall numbers over a week or so

the yes on recall is up to 63%--that's impossible since it was just barely over 50% maybe a week or so ago

[rads]

9. Reading across polls

The last Gallup poll (8/7-8/10) had "Yes" on recall at 64% and Arnold at 42%. So in terms of comparing apples to apples, there hasn't been much change. Note that almost every other poll (LA Times, Field, etc.) has had "Yes" hovering at or just above 50% and Cruz and Arnold in a virtual tie for almost a month now.

So, despite what most media outlets are saying, the Gallup poll really doesn't mean that there's been a huge shift recently. I think the only thing notable about this poll is how the media's reporting of it might affect the race (could shake things in a couple different ways IMO).

[PROGRESSIVE1]

11. The local affiliates in LA are polling a very tight race here!

Ignore the Gallup Poll!

It should be called the "GOP-allup" Poll!

[carpetbagger]

10. Best one-liner wins.

Sad but true.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

12. You're right, they don't....

make sense. Go here to find out WHY:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=433761

[mndemocrat_29]

13. These don't make sense

I'd possibly believe that Arnold is winning, but not by 45 percent. Especially with McClintock at 18 percent. Was this poll done by Repukes?

[Demobrat]

15. I don't believe them either.

That debate didn't change anybody's mind. Either they're lying about the polls or the fix is in.

[PATRICK]

16. No analysis of the sampling theory

Maybe the presumption that mainly the GOP will flood the polls skews the sample when internal or other polls are presuming heavier Dem turnout.

AND don't forget these are the GOP people who watched the debate to see Arnold for the first time and we know how that kind of crowd is skewed.
It is essentially a TV poll taken right after the assorted media puffed up their boy.

[stickdog]

17. Hint: Gallup is full of shit. (NT)