Kerry Chips Dean's NH Lead Into Single Digits

[DrFunkenstein]

BOSTON -- Howard Dean topped John Kerry by 9 points in a new poll of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, with newcomer Wesley Clark speeding past the other seven Democratic presidential contenders.

Dean was the choice for 26 percent of voters, followed by Kerry with 17 percent and Clark with 10 percent, according to the poll by WHDH-TV and Suffolk University conducted between Sept. 26-28. The poll was released Monday.

The new poll numbers are similar to a poll conducted Sept. 24-25 and released Friday by Zogby International that showed Dean leading Kerry by a 10-point margin and Clark in third with 10 percent of likely Democratic primary voters.

The poll of 400 New Hampshire Democrats who said they were likely to cast a ballot on primary day, tentatively scheduled for Jan. 27, 2004, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/local/state/hc-29194404.apds.m0330.bc-ct--newhsep29,0,153994.story?coll=hc-headlines-local-wire

<>

Eye of the Tiger, baby!

[blm]

1. Get used to it. Kerry will be on top in NH within 2 months.

The firefighters are about to make their voices heard. There are reasons why they endorse Kerry. There are reasons why they have a prickly relationship with Dean. More people are about to hear about it FIRSTHAND.

[DrFunkenstein]

4. I Read They Are Going to Go Door To Door in NH

That's got to be more effective than my sorry ass!

<>

[Larkspur]

29. But Kerry has already relinquished the lead a couple months ago to Dean

Kerry was the favorite a couple months ago and Dean the underdog. I think the big difference in Dean overtaking Kerry and Kerry struggling to recapture the lead is that Dean's organization is superb and Dean inspires, Kerry does not.

It will be interesting to see the polls in a couple weeks. Dean's Texas Rangers have just finished their canvassing.

Can Kerry inspire people from Texas to canvass for him?

[pruner]

2. what a pathetic attempt to spin things in your guy's favor

from the link you provided (which I'd posted earlier under the article's title which is "Dean tops Kerry, Clark in New Hampshire poll":

The latest poll shows Dean has crossed an important bridge in his bid to win New Hampshire, according to Suffolk University adjunct professor and pollster David Paleologos.

"This is a wake-up call for John Kerry," Paleologos said. "Kerry needs to reconnect with the voters that once supported him."

The poll also found Dean's popularity strong, with a favorable rating of 61 percent, while only 14 percent rated him unfavorably.

[blm]

7. CMT always looked for something positive in every poll for Dean.

Even when it showed him way behind. Noone said CMT was pathetic. In fact, it was quite charming.

[CMT]

19. thanks!!

As long as he is leading and leading by roughly 9-13 points in four different polls taken since Gen. Clark entered the race (with the General at 10% in nearly every one in NH) I'm pleased. When Dean opened that 21-point lead in Zogby I was ecstatic but said at the time that "this won't last" as nobody expects NH to be that kind of blowout for any candidate.

In this poll, what I'm most pleased about beyond simply leading (after all the Clark publicity) is the strong favorable rating Dean still has in the state of 61-14.

My hat off to John Kerry too who will continue to make NH a fight--his campaign should also be proud that despite the strong media coverage for Clark that he is still a solid second in NH--it shows that New Hampshire which likes to meet and get to know candidates up close and personal will not easily be taken in and that the people who have worked the state for better than a year like Dean and Kerry will not easily lose there support to the General--who needs to earn it.

[Closer]

3. HAHA

No, Clark should be credited for chipping away at Dean's lead.

Kerry has done nothing to increase his lead. His campaign is dead.

It's sad he (and his supporters) rely on a spoiler to help boost him, and THEN on top of that, give wooden Kerry the credit!

Too funny! :D

[DrFunkenstein]

5. I'm Sure That Some People Left For Clark

But that would only mean that there are new supporters to maintain him!

<>

[unfrigginreal]

6. LOL...you have a serious problem in recognizing same poll trends...

don't you?

Here's 2 other stories about the same poll
----------------

7News-Suffolk Poll: Leader of the Pack

Air Date: 09/29/2003


Trouble for John Kerry in the "Race for the White House". A 7News-Suffolk University Poll shows the Massachusetts senator losing ground with New Hampshire democrats, while one candidate is starting to break out as the leader of the pack. 7 Political Editor Andy Hiller crunches the newest numbers.
Howard Dean is the big winner in our poll and newcomer Wesley Clark will like our new numbers, too. But John Kerry won't.

Dean leads our poll, with 26 percent, Kerry's support has fallen to 17 percent, while Clark has broken into double digits, with 10 percent

http://web1.whdh.com/features/articles/hiller/A114/

--------------------------

7News-Suffolk Poll: Dean’s Lead

Air Date: 09/29/2003

Prof. David Paleologos, Suffolk University Pollster
"It appears that Dean is close to solidifying a base. Dean is only seven to eight points away from locking this thing up.

The poll spells capital-T trouble for John Kerry, who has lost almost half the support he had in our last poll in March.

Prof. David Paleologos
"It tells me that he's in a free fall, and he needs to address that problem immediately, if not sooner."

http://web1.whdh.com/features/articles/hiller/A113/

[blm]

9. That was MARCH.

Not August. The media had its frenzy for Dean, now let him bear the scrutiny.

Kerry's campaign is just hitting the streets.

[w4rma]

13. Here is the 7News-Suffolk University Poll from March 7th

Kerry is the Granite in New Hampshire Democratic Primary Poll

BOSTON, MA – Massachusetts Senator John Kerry holds a commanding lead in the 2004 New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary, according to an exclusive 7NEWS-Suffolk University poll released today.

In a just completed survey of 496 likely Democratic voters – the largest sample taken this year – Kerry polled 32% of respondents, followed by Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman (17%), former Governor of Vermont Howard Dean (10%), Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt (6%) and North Carolina Senator John Edwards (2%). There were three other candidates who each received 1%.
…
http://www.suffolk.edu/opa/news/nh_poll.html

[blm]

30. Then 5 more months of Dean in the corporate media

being pushed as the ONLY candidate who speaks out against Bush.

Well, we'll see what those numbers say in a couple months.

[DrFunkenstein]

12. Do You Agree With The Adjunct Professor They Dug Up?

Does Kerry look like he is free fall to you? They are basing the trend on the poll they took in March. There was, you know, a month or two of history between then and now. Remember the silly season, when Dean took an enormous lead after his media blitz?
I am absolutely confident in Kerry's position here. It is becoming more and more clear tha Clark is eating away at Dean's position, while Kerry solidly maintains (despite Dean having 60 paid staffers in the state).

God bless the Boston media for their fair and balanced view of Kerry.

<>

[pruner]

14. I'll take an adjunct professor's word over yours any day of the week

please post a link to some of the evidence that supports your theories, since the article doesn't seem to include any.

[DJcairo]

23. I'm sorry but March to August?

There have beenjust a few things that have happened during that time, namely the release of dozens of other polls. This is the first poll in over a month to show Kerry behind by only single digits. He is clearly gaining over his position last month. Meanwhile, a recent Iowa Poll by Global Media Research conducted for the Edwards campaign showed Kerry behind by one point and Gep in third.

Since most of you are new to politics and voted for Nader in 2000 I'll take the time to explain. The primaries are nearly 4 months away. Things change and right now the momentum is in Kerry's favor.

Eat my dust.

[Nicholas_J]

33. Also

The first poll that indicated that Dean had become frontrunner in a sudden rise, has also reported that Dean has taken a massively large hit in the polls and other pre poll articles have indicated that Deans ratings in Iowa have taken an even LARGER hit since the Gephardt revelations on Deans positions on Medicare and Social Security in the mid 1990's along with Kerry revelation of Deans cuts to elder programs in 2002 in order to Dean with the cuts in federal funding. Fact is even in 2002, Dean sided with Vermont Republicans in choosing to cut programs to the elderly, rather than go along with the Democrat/Progressive legislation to raise taxes on the rich to avoid cutting the programs. Vermont had a 3.5 billion dollar budget, but all it would have taken to avoid cutting the programs was 27 million, at the very most. Senate democrats decided toignore Dean. override him and pass a budget that reinstated the programs, sending Dean into a foot stamoing tizzy.

Deans attempt to discredit the information show him as a feckless incompetant, subject to the whims of a Republican President, as opposed to a leader who can lead.

His every excuse revolves around some form of "It wasnt my fault"/

Not good in a president.

[Egnever]

28. Newsflash!

The media blitz is about to begin anew. Guess what? Dean just made the guiness book of world records tonight and is about to anounce breaking a fundraising record. The news next week will be all dean all the time yet again.

what do you expect the polls to do then?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

8. You're kidding, right?

Do you really believe that Kerry is on fire?

[DrFunkenstein]

20. Not On Fire At All

Kerry has had solid numbers throughout, even at the height of the silly season. He is not rocketing like Clark (or Dean previously). He has maintained, and is slowly but surely chipping away at Dean's numbers.

The race has begun in earnest, and I think people are going to really start looking for something more than 4 years of anti-Bush. With Clark's entrance, foreign policy experience has really been put on the table (it's what separates Dean and Clark).

Kerry is the only candidate that has extensive experience in both the foreign and domestic realms. People are slowly beginning to come to that conclusion. We shall see what the polls look like in December. If they follow the general trends, Dean's star will have faded while Clark and Kerry continue in the ascendant. The real question is not flavor-of-the-season Dean. It's can Clark pull out some top notch policies. If he does, the race just might be his. We shall see.

[arcos]

10. dupe

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=50664

[stickdog]

11. The REAL story.

The latest poll shows Dean has crossed an important bridge in his bid to win New Hampshire, according to Suffolk University adjunct professor and pollster David Paleologos. "This is a wake-up call for John Kerry," Paleologos said. "Kerry needs to reconnect with the voters that once supported him."

The poll also found Dean's popularity strong, with a favorable rating of 61 percent, while only 14 percent rated him unfavorably.

Clark's strong numbers despite his recent entrance into the race shows the retired general has room to boost his support as he continues to introduce himself to New Hampshire voters, Paleologos said.

In other results, the poll of likely Democratic voters found 56 percent said it was not worth going to war in Iraq and 64 percent opposed President Bush's request for $87 billion to help rebuild Iraq.

[DrFunkenstein]

21. Look At The General Trends (Which Is All Polls Are Good For)

Dean's star rose quickly during his summer media blitz, culiminating in a huge lead in a Zogby poll that everyone began to use as a watermark. However, Dean could not pull away from the pack. Instead his numbers fell, while Kerry maintained or rose slightly.

With the entrance of white-knight Clark, it became a real question of whose support would he siphon off. I think it is evident by this point that alot of anti-war people were looking for someone electable in Wesley Clark.

It is ridiculous to make conclusions - as this adjunct did - that a trend could be discerned while ignoring April, May, June, July, August, and most of September.

If you look at the last few months, the numbers are favorable for two people - Clark and Kerry. Dean's numbers have slowly - but surely - dropped. Any claims of momentum for Dean have all but evaporated. Yet Kerry remains the workhorse.

<>

[dean4america]

15. once again

you intentionally overlook and ignore the fact that you can't compare polling data from two or more separate polls.

It's gettting pretty pathetic around here seeing the same 2 or 3 Kerry people continuing to post misleading and ill-informed commentary.

[Nicholas_J]

16. Dean lead

jumped by 17 point in August, hoverd aroung the same high level as others started canpaigning, and now they are showingg forward momentum to Deans falling momentum. and is already falling away after less than 4 weeks. The biggest drop to Dean came immediately after Gephardts reporting on Deans support of Gingrich in 1995.

It will more than likly continue to drop.

Dena relied on a lot of early camigning and attack on other candidatesbefore they had actually started campaigning.

For Dean to drop almost 25 percent a few days after Clark came on losing most of his suport to Clark and Kerry, in the latest Zogby polls in New Hampshire is a major hemorage that Dean will not be able to stop. His past record should give the final blow.

[Closer]

18. Ok

"His past record should give the final blow."

Because it's affected him so negatively lately? THAT makes a lot of sense :eyes:

Face it NICKY, Kerry's campaign is as dead as Kerry is wooden.

[DJcairo]

24. You're candidate isn't a real Democrat

You think your better because Dean says he's from the "democratic wing of the democreatic party"? Than why did he call Medicare a terrible program. Why is he loved by the NRA? Why did most Vermonters think he was more interested in a balanced budget than spending priorities. And why does he have no position on Iraq,trade and the environment?

[Andromeda]

26. Statements like this is why...

I can't take you seriously. Instead of spinning what Dean said to suit your own agenda why don't you try telling the truth for a change? Dean called Medicare a terrible program because as a doctor he ran into so much of that bureaucratic red tape that it made his job more difficult and made the patients and their families a little bit crazy. HE SAID THAT MEDICARE IS A TERRIBLE PROGRAM BECAUSE OF THE BUREAUCRACY INVOLVED WITH IT, NOT BECAUSE HE WANT'S TO DO AWAY WITH IT. IN FACT, HE WANTS TO DO AWAY WITH SOME OF THE PAPERWORK THAT COMES WITH MEDICARE SO THEY CAN MAKE IT MORE EFFICIENT, THUS ALLOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT IN ADMINISTRATING THE BENEFITS FOR SENIORS.

The gun issue is a non-issue. He thinks it should be up to the states to make their own gun laws. So,...? As far as the other things like Iraq, trade and the environment you just threw in there to muddy up the waters a little bit more. Don't be specific, just throw around accusations and other non sequiturs because you think it supports your views.

We get it. You don't like Dean, so don't vote for him. Geeeesh, you're more annoying than Nick, almost.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

22. LOL

This is too funny.

Still waiting for that final Dean death blow, are we?

It's going to be a fine, fine day tomorrow... :)

[MercutioATC]

34. Why is it that a huge jump in poll #s for Dean is a fluke to you and

a small drop is proof of a trend, Nick? You're absolutely right in saying that in the most recent polls, Kerry's numbers have improved. I don't recall anybody saying anything other than it being a Dean/Kerry race in N.H.

What I DO recall is you crowing that Dean had not bested Kerry beyond the MOE in any poll and claiming that Dean's campaign would soon fizzle (a couple of months ago). I also recall the total lack of recognition from you when Dean DID poll better than Kerry.

So are your predictions based on numbers or unfounded bias?

[Name removed]

17. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DJcairo]

25. Go back to the Dean blog....This isn't it.

Too bad all you have to say is negative stuff about Kerry. These are the best poll results he's had in a month in NH and you are dissing him. See you at the Kerry inauguration. Have a good year.

[LuminousX]

32. Of Course Kerry is being 'dissed'

When a visiting team scores a goal against the home team, you don't cheer. You raz the ref. You make some noise, you try to spark your team into action.

This is good news for Kerry (to agree, with Clark steaming up the polls, Kerry will have to fight on two fronts and that may be kind of taxing on his campaign at the moment), but it is also a call for Dean supporters to hit the streets extra hard. And if it means launching a few verbal barbs at Kerry, so be it. Whatever it takes to recharge Dean supporters to encourage them to try a bit harder.

[Name removed]

27. Deleted message

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[Name removed]

31. Deleted message

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