AP: Private Surveys Show Kerry Gaining in NH

[DJcairo]

snip>Ron Fournier (AP)
-Kerry, the Massachusetts senator who cast himself as the early front-runner, has been frustrated by the attention lavished on Dean and Clark. Kerry, who has criticized his staff, will soon carry out long-held plans to broaden his campaign team. He is second to Dean in fund raising. Public polls show him trailing Dean in New Hampshire, a state Kerry must win, but a Democratic strategist not tied to either campaign said he's seen private surveys with Kerry gaining ground.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20031001/APN/310010915

[Redneck Socialist]

1. That's nice...

"Kerry, who has criticized his staff" now he is blaming his staff for his poor performance. The only reason he may be "gaining ground' is because Clark is pulling support from Dean.

[DrFunkenstein]

2. From 21 points to 9

He has clearly recovered from his surgery, and is ready to take them all on. Although Dean won the silly season, his numbers have slowly - but surely - been dropping. All the funds in the world are not going to help him if he loses New Hampshire. I heard he already has at least 60 paid operatives in the state, but they don't seem to be doing him much good.

I'm really surprised he hasn't turned the corner yet. You can't run on 4 years of anti-Bush, but he has still yet to put together a real agenda.

While Dean blasts Bush for $, Kerry has been assembling a real platform beyond "Bush is a stinker, I'd be better."

Personally, I'm more worried about Clark, who has real foreign policy experience and a shot at beating Bush. We'll see how he plays out.

[stickdog]

4. Wouldn't you expect the front runner to lose a little ground when

Lieberman, Kerry and Gephardt are all attacking him and Clark is getting all the "golden boy" hype?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. No. Front runner is new messiah. front runner will save all.

All hail he who walks on water and is neither a liberal nor a centrist but omni-present across the political spectrum.
All hail he who can miraculously summon money from your pockets and into his campaign coffers.
He can only go up in the polls, not down.
He can do no wrong.
All hail the new messiah.

[Octafish]

6. That guy was on Leno.

So, how come none of the Deanies are talking about how great Ho-Ho did on Leno? Could it be:

He looked really small. His feet barely reached the carpet. Talked small, too, which is unusual for him. Told a long story poorly. Made him look like a small thinker. He said then he was a cheapskate. A real conservative, that, come to think of it.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

7. He was great on Leno

You are attacking him for being SHORT? Seriously?

Check out the blog, lots of great stuff about how good he was on Leno. There were also threads on this forum, in GD. Sorry you missed it.

He was relaxed and charming and funny on Leno. Seemed like a regular guy. Which is why some of us like him so much.

(Plus he played an Ovation!)

[Octafish]

11. No. I'm shorter than he is, I think.

No offense to short people, a group that includes many in my family and me, but the way the chair was set up made Dean look like a kid. His feet barely touched the floor.

Dean then allowed Leno to tower over him during the conversation. Meanwhile, Dean leaned back in his chair. He looked dominated by a bigger person. Maybe that's why he's got a short fuse.

My point is his discourse did not match his campaign rhetoric. He failed to lay out even a hint of what he wants for America, other than ushering in an era of fiscal responsibility due to his parsimony.

If Dean was presidential timber, he would have LED the conversation. He would have gotten people to FOLLOW him. And Jay Leno would show him some respect — from the chair's ergonomics, to the TV host's body language, to the general tone of the conversation — IMO.

PS: The guy's got a sense of humor. Dean got Rob Reiner to toss a buck into his guitar case.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

12. Leno's show is mostly fluff

and it was great to see Dean relax and do some light stuff, stories, etc. Dean is everywhere in the news, if people want to know his policies, they don't have to look far. I was very happy that he didn't do his stump speech, nor did I think Leno would let him.

You don't think Dean is "presidential timber" because you don't like him. This is all about perspective. :shrug:

I thought he was great, funny, relaxed, charming. This was an opportunity for people to see the man in a different environment. The very next day he did 5 morning news shows, back to the stump.

[Octafish]

14. True.

Leno is fluff. If that.

Please know, though: I do like Dean as a person, not as a President.

You may be surprised to learn I like Dean as much as I like Kerry — as a person. Totally serious about that, DU Friend Amerikav60. The thing is I prefer Kerry as a President.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

16. Gotcha, no problem Octafish

And I have often said here that I will be happy if Kerry is the nominee, he's been my 2nd choice all along. I prefer Dean because of some issues, but Kerry would also be a great president.

And all of these guys tower over George Bush. It's at the point where it just seems surreal that that anyone continues to support him. They must really not be paying attention.

[helleborient]

24. He's 5'8" Octafish

[JohnKleeb]

27. wait hes 5'8 by he you mean Dean

I dont give a rat's ass how tall he is, but why have some people who are Dean supporters and I am not generalizing Ive seen some do it before, not all of you of course say that one of DK's problem is his height. He is only an inch shorter than Dean, I was off I thought Dean was 5'9. Thats not a slam people, I just found it heh ironic that Ive been told by some people that my candiate is too small yet their candiate is only an inch taller than mine. Sorry guys, I know not all of you say that but I have seen it and these eyes dont deceive trust me. I think Dean appears to be bigger than Kucinich by a lot because well Dennis isnt a "big guy", by big I mean like weight and stuff and yes by that he is small I dont deny.

[Fabio]

9. Much like Kerry slipped

when Dean was attacking him in March thru June and Dean was the golden boy. It's funny how history repeats itself.

[Nicholas_J]

20. Nope

To lose a little ground is one thing.Dean is losing much more than "A little support" In one poll Zogby Dean is losing support in a very large way,, a 23-24 percent drop in polling support in a period of less than a month is a serious loss.

Deans rise was extrememly rapid, gained through large amounts of advertising in the month before labor day. jumping 17 points. It was simply an anomaly, which is correcting as the other candidates begin brining up Deans past records and statements. Prior to Labor Day, Dean was really running against no one, and all the public got to hear was his own campaign self praise.

I have seen recent survey information (A.A.R.P.) from that largest group of voters who seem to be those who are mostly uncommited at this point, that show Dean doing diasmally among this group. Those either retired or preparing to retire are not takingg to Dean at all.

[helleborient]

13. Unfortunately...even after it was pointed out...

You are using results from polls from two different companies to try and indicate a narrowing of the gap from 21 to 9.

Any seasoned poll-watcher knows that comparing one company's poll to another is apples-oranges comparison, because of their different methodologies of poll-taking.

And please, please....show us the link for dropping poll numbers for Dean...a narrowing of gaps, even if you could show it, does not indicate a drop in support for Dean...possibly only an increase in support for someone else.

More pro-Kerry garbage posts...

[Fabio]

15. Please see

the charts on right at http://www.zogby.com

They clearly show dean's support in New Hampshire falling from 38 to 30 over a one month period. They show Kerry increasing from 17 to 20, and Clark going from N/A to 10.

[helleborient]

17. Thank you for that...

Can you answer why Dr. F deliberately misled on the 21 to 9?

I appreciate the links you provide.

[Fabio]

18. I cant speak for DrF but

The math I see says a 21 point lead falling to a 10 point lead.

38 - 17 = 21
30 - 20 = 10

Either way, the lead is pretty solid for Dean, Clark obviously has changed the dynamic the most, and Kerry has shown some resurgence. I'm a kerry supporter, and I think DrF is a fair Kerry supporter too. But all the harping in the world wont change the numbers. Dean is in the lead, Kerry is number 2. The primary is in 4 months. May the best man win.

I must say, though, you've got to respect DrF taking a bus from NYC to NH for a weekend of postering and door to door work. Maybe he's shaving off that point (to 9) for his good works.

[helleborient]

21. Maybe he is...

We've got Dean folks here planning on making the trip to Iowa...any work in favor of Democrats helps.

[Fabio]

22. the real test is who

is visiting Iowa and New Hampshire in January. I went to high school in New Hampshire. I am not looking forward to making the trip then. But I will.

I just need to find a place to defrost thereafter. Is their a Puerto Rican Primary? :-)

[helleborient]

23. I'm packing the parka...

Winter is bad enough here in Illinois...more bitter out in Iowa!

[Fabio]

25. no kidding.

this recent push of cold air thru the NE is scaring me.

[Nicholas_J]

19. Nope

I have now seen those private surveys, and Kerry is ahead of Dean in NH in these.

As a matter of fact, Dean is very far behind in the age groups 50 - 75 according to these surveys, with Kerry having three times the numerical support in this age bracket.

[Name removed]

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[PAMod]

8. Barring some blockbluster, I expect it will be tight...

from now until the NH vote.

Kerry is running hard, knowing that a loss in NH will probably end his chances. If he can't win there, the money could dry up nationally, and those who are less than committed to his candidacy (that obviously pertains to none of his supporters here at DU!) will start to look around at other candidates.

Dean is in a similar situation, though he may be stronger finacially speaking, allowing him to keep going strong even with a second place in NH. I say this not knowing what the "cash on hand" situation will be for Dean & Kerry.

The "lead" in NH may even change back and forth, who can say? It'll be interesting, that's for sure!

[Meshuga]

10. By December Kerry...

will be leading the polls in NH.

[Speck Tater]

26. Here's how the "Private Survey" was done...

They wen't to a Kerry Meetup and interviewed all three people who attended. Two of them (66%) planned to vote for Kerry. Margin of error +/- 67%

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

28. The fear is palpable.