Dean Takes month off of television in NH

[CMT]

Politics NH reports that Sen. John Edwards spent the most in September on tv ad buys in NH spending $208,205. Followed by Dick Gephardt with $168,448, John Kerry "stepped up" his ad buys purchasing $155,123 worth and Howard Dean bought no airtime in NH for the month of September.

http://www.politicsnh.com/archives/pindell/2003/october/10_2.shtml

[DrFunkenstein]

1. Is That Why He Slipped From 21 points to 9?

But, hey, the kids seem to love him. And what's the harm? Better to register a protest than put up a less pure candidate.

[liberalnurse]

4. Go ahead gloat now, when it makes no difference.

You'll be crying in your beer soon enough....

[w4rma]

7. That's teacups. Kerry prefer's teacups.

;)

[Evanstondem]

9. The 21 point poll was dubious

Several other polls since then has shown him about 10 points up, so his margin seems stable.

[Fabio]

20. I dont think that poll was dubious.

I think it was the effect of all that free media and buzz in august. As a kerry supporter, though, I am very pleased with it, because it has set up a great story line for Kerry to recover. We have already seen it in the 21 to 10 stories, but if JK gets it really tight again -- especially in the October Zogby -- I think that's a story the press loves. They just love a horse race.

Not that it is any slam dunk, but its a great traditional storyline.

[CMT]

21. it may have had an effect

but I doubt he was ever really 21-points ahead since that poll has been the only one to show him that high. Still he seems pretty stable right now between 9-13 points ahead depending on the recent poll you want to go by. Will it get closer in NH, probably--but it is bound to.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

25. 21 to 9 in the same poll?

I can't keep track...was this the same poll that showed him with a 21 point lead and then a 9 point lead? If not, it is meaningless.

Mousepads, Shoe Leather, and Hope

[Rose Siding]

2. Trippi is being careful with the money

which is admirable. He knows Bush will be flush.

[DrFunkenstein]

10. Yeah, Like Buying Ads In Texas

Really cost effective. Spend a million for a headline in mid-summer (in a state that it's useless). Real thrifty...

[jburton]

11. it wasn't Texas, it was nationwide

The ad buy in Austin (not a million $ btw) got repeated over and over in national news.

Plus it was spun as not being afraid to go after Bush in his own backyard.

He got free coverage before the ad ("Dean will play an ad in tx")
He got free coverage during the ad (all WH reporters were in tx at the time at *'s "ranch")
He got free coverage after the ad about the ad.

Huge publicity for a "local" ad buy.

[JaneQPublic]

12. That stunt got coverage nationwide.

The same amount spent in Iowa or NH wouldn't have done that.

Pretty damn clever,I'd say.

[PAMod]

15. The Dean Machine is the best run political campaign I've ever seen

and I've been following this stuff for 28 years.

The ad buy in TX was nothing less than BRILLIANT. They were talking about that all over the networks for days.

When all of the interparty screaming and crying fades, we will have one hell of a campaign and candidate for president.

The Doctor is in.

Keep you eyes on the prize people!

[Meshuga]

26. I know, great campaign...

but only average candidate.

[Rose Siding]

22. TV ads = $200,000

Rallying the base by taking the fight to Bush's house = PRICELESS!!

I know that the concept of letting the base know you're fighting is a rarity so it's easy not to know it when you see it.

[Larkspur]

24. Texas is not useless for the Dem nomination race

There are Democrats there who will be voting in the primaries and their votes pick delegates for the Dem Convention. Dean wisely courted them and gave them hope.

[quinnox]

3. Sounds like Dean burned through a lot of cash

so he had to save some money by not advertising. It will be interesting to see cash on hand totals in mid-Oct.

[liberalnurse]

8. So be -it.....

And make it So....We can financially support Dean a hell of a lot better than any other of the 9 candidates. We Deanies can donate over, and over until we reach our $2000.00 each. There are more Dean supporters with small donations that the other candidates. Our well is very, very deep. :)

[ModerateMiddle]

17. I don't think the consideration was so much

running through money generally, but rather, bumping up against the limits of how much each candidate can spend in a particular state. If I am remembering correctly, the limit in NH is somewhere around 1/2 million total for the primaries? But that sounds low. So I probably am remembering wrong.

[unfrigginreal]

5. And still in the lead? Hmmm...

sounds like he didn't need the airtime.

[mistertrickster]

6. You don't have to spend money on a state that already supports you.

It's Iowa he's gotta be concerned about.

[pruner]

13. Iowa already supports him too

just a little bit more than Gephardt at last count.

[Larkspur]

14. Dean didn't need to air ads in NH in September because he was there

personally going to house parties and rallies.

[Demobrat]

23. Not to mention a hundred thousand people writing

personal letters at meetups.

[LuminousX]

16. Decisions

Dean has been quite frugal with his money. The Texas ad was brilliant and has addressed one of the biggest complaints Texan Democrats have, they get ignored. I'm sure the Texas ad helped gather together Dean's Texas Rangers which can only help in the long run.

I wish Dean would campaign a bit harder in New Hampshire, but that is my own opinion. The closing gap does worry me a bit.

[Fabio]

18. I think BLM was right.

Dean is about $10-12 million away from being able opt out of the public financing system. If he can do it, then the spending caps in New Hampshire are irrelevant. But if he doesn't (i think it will be a close call), then spending too much money now will limit his flexibility on the ground in New Hampshire. I think the cap is around $2.5 million there. I may be wrong.

Anyhow, I think that they have used their advertising to maximum affect anyway. By going up early and getting a jump in the polls when the other candidates were dark, Dean grabbed the front runner label and has gained so much more in free media. It was a good move, as much as it pained me to watch as a Kerry supporter. It was also a good move to have a big event in Boston during the end of the month polling period. The media markets overlap - and Dean is weakest in southern New Hampshire. It was another way to generate movement.

I think the big piece of intrigue in this race will be the spending cap issue. I am very interested to see what Dean's burn rate was this past quarter. One thing to remember is that Dean, if he opts out of public financing, will be giving up the largest degree of matching funds because of his fractionalized/large small donor base.

Stay tuned.

[Fabio]

19. JK only went on the air in September.

I wonder if they mean in September or for september -- which month are they really talking about?

Does anyone live in NH? Do they remember seeing Dean on TV last month? That owuld answer the question.

[FightinNewDem]

27. Bigger issue is Edwards

The Edwards campaign has dropped close to a quarter of a million on television up here, and his poll numbers have barely twitched. For all of the snickering about Lieberman's numbers, he's still leading Edwards and Gephardt, and he hasn't gone on the tube yet. He has cut ads (Mandy Gruenwald was in Manchester with a film crew a few weeks ago), but the spots have yet to run.