Clark leads in another state poll: Alabama

[Kahuna]

http://www.al.com/news/mobileregister/index.ssf?/base/news/106534573659010.xml

snip..

10/05/03

By SEAN REILLY
Washington Bureau


The good news for retired Gen. Wesley Clark: Roughly two weeks after jumping into the Democratic presidential fray, he leads the 10-candidate field in Alabama, according to a new Mobile Register-University of South Alabama poll of 405 likely primary voters.


The bad news: Clark's share of the vote amounted to just 13 percent. He was followed by U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri at 11 percent, with U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut and the Rev. Al Sharpton of New York at 9 percent each.

While Howard Dean has been firing up Democratic activists elsewhere in the county, only 5 percent of Alabama Democrats would cast their ballots for the former Vermont governor.
end of snip...

This is the fourth state poll that Clark has led. He has led in NY, CA, WI and now Alabama. Does this make him the frontrunner yet? I think at this point that reporters are being disengenuous and downplaying Clark as the new frontrunner. I can suggest two reasons. In primary lingo, frontrunner means whomever is expected to win the first two races, and excluding the fact that the so-called frontrunner is polling at the the top of ONLY those two polls. Or, the press wants to continue to downplay Clark's popularity to stop his momentum.

[clar]

1. Yes, he's the frontrunner

I really don't see how anyone could deny his frontrunner status.

[Democrats unite]

2. I'm still eating Clark Bars.

And as it stands right now, Clark is the one I plan on voting for in the Primaries.

[kstewart33]

3. Go Clark Go!

He's got real momentum.

[Kahuna]

4. The real good news is, Clark seems to be playing well in all..

geographic regions as we Wes Wingers predicted.

Go Wes Wingers! We rock! :grouphug:

[mndemocrat_29]

5. Great for Clark

I'd love to see the Democrats win Alabama. I'm also glad that Gephardt is leading over Lieberman. Lieberman's name recognition is beginning to do him no good.

[Kahuna]

6. Gephardt is doing very well nationally. And not too bad..

in state polls. He could be a contender. There's no reason to count him out.

[even]

7. I felt better,

when Clark decided to run.

[Kahuna]

8. Welcome to DU! Are you officially a Wes Winger?

:pals:

[CMT]

9. Clark is the national front runner

just as Lieberman was up to a few weeks ago, but not by much. There still is a long way to go and even in a pro-military state such as Alabama his lead is not that impressive--though he is doing much better than Dean or Kerry.

He will also have to try to move forward in Iowa and New Hampshire where much of the action between the candidates has been held. Right now it appears that he might forgo Iowa (due to it being a caucus state and in a caucus a strongly developed organization is needed to help get out the vote) and concentrate on New Hampshire--where he currently is running third with about 10% in three seperate polls released last week--still considering he just got in the race officially that is a pretty good showing. Then go for a win in South Carolina--where currently Sen. Edwards has been on the move.

I think ultimately Clark will do best in the south--being a southerner and with the regions strongly pro-military outlook. I think to get as much momentum as possible he should try and come in at least second in NH (if he does that the press would concentrate on that even if Dean or Kerry came in first)and then go for a win in South Carolina.

[Kahuna]

10. Excuse me. Clark leads 4 polls. Dean leads 1! Lieb leads 0!

Nice trying to downplay. Right now, being that Clark leads nationally and in states, he's the frontrunner. If you don't think he is, I can sure tell you who is not. His initials are, H.D.

On edit: I don't know if Lieberman leads any polls. It's possible that he may still lead a poll or two.

[CMT]

11. don't be so adversarial

Reread my response I thought I was being open-minded. You asked if he is the front-runner. I answered yes, but truthfully and this goes for Dean or anyone else it is too early and the polls are too close. 13% in Alabama is great especially for someone who just got in. But Gephardt has 11%. It is still wide open. Any yes, Lieberman doesn't lead in any polls--anymore--but as I pointed out he was the leader in most national polls up to a few weeks ago. This just means that Democrats are still searching for a candiate. It could be Clark, it could be Dean, it could be Edwards or someone else.

[Kahuna]

12. Really CMT.. I think you are..

a very nice person and basically an honest person. I don't want to give you an unsolicited opinion of your assessments about the Dean campaign. I respect you too much to do that without you asking. I will say that you tend to be a little slow to acknowledge the obvious. And, before the campaigns heated up and you settled on supporting Dean I thought that you were one of the most honest and thought provoking posters on DU.

P.S.
I apologize for being adversarial. I don't think you deserve that. :D

[CMT]

16. thanks

since I gave you my assessment of Clark I will give my assessment of what Dean needs to do.

1) Second or first in Iowa--period. If he gets third in Iowa it will be considered a loss.

2) First in NH--I know that Kerry and him have been going back and forth in NH, but it is now considered that Dean is leading in the state--if he gets anything less than a win it will be considered a loss.

3) I doubt he will win South Carolina so he will have to try and win Arizona and New Mexico which I think are held on the same day.

That's as far as I will go. There are too many variables.

p.s.
I don't know why people who support Clark and those who support Dean can't get along. It is just a pesonal opinion. I have said all along that if Clark is the nominee he will have my full support. I assume the same counts with others as far as Dean is concerned. You have a right to be proud of how far Clark has gone in so little time. I'm proud of where Dean has gone. In the end both will be much better than the jackass we have as president right now.

[Kahuna]

17. Awww. You shame me.... again... with your..

sweetness. :pals:

[robbedvoter]

24. Go Clark!

It seems that the real world is a bit different from what a few here think it is.

[Padraig18]

13. Clark could defeat the CW paradigm

If Clark is well-funded enough to get past IA/NH, etc. and hang on until the NY, CA, IL (big, delegate-rich) primaries, e.g., he may finally blow this "if you don't win early, you can't win" stuff, something I would personally be glad to see happen.

[Kahuna]

14. Clinton did it. It is not written in stone that Clark can't win the..

nomination without winning NH and IA. It's still too early to count him out in NH. Strong polling against the incumbant and strong state polls tend to drive momentum. So don't count Clark out in NH where he is presently third.

[Padraig18]

15. I don't.

Just hoping that he might finally put to rest the disproportionate importance people place on IA, NH, etc. . It's absurd, frankly. :hi:

[Bread and Circus]

18. Great points....

by both Padraig and Clar....you folks took
the edge off my Dean tirades. I was even thinking
today that if Dean wins the nomination, I would
donate to his campaign.

I try to take a lesson from you both. Others here
should as well.

You are doing the Dem party proud.

[Padraig18]

20. Thanks!

:hi:

[Kahuna]

21. What about me? I made up with CMT?

And I had been a really bad girl. }(

[goobergunch]

19. This is a very positive sign for Clark in the South

Although Alabama's June primary is itself unimportant, this is a sign of regional strength which is positive for him in February states such as SC, OK, TN, and VA.

[AP]

22. The article says that name recognition is the factor in this poll...

It said the poll results probably reflect the media hoopla at the time of Clark's announcement.

It also said that 59% of respondents said they'd support Gore or Hillary if they ran.

Another interesting result: the break down on racial lines. 20% of the black voters liked Sharpton, while only 1% of white voters preferred him. For Clark, it was 18% white, 8% black.

[jiacinto]

23. One problem

Alabama's primary isn't until June, too late to be of any significance as the nominee will have been picked by then.

[DemCam]

25. But perhaps a bellweather now....

about the possible strong showing in the South.

[yelladawg]

26. Add two more states

In Arkansas and Oklahoma, I understand Clark is in the lead.

[OKNancy]

27. Oklahoma has just as many delegates available

as Iowa and the primary is Feb 3. I think it is absolutely going to happen this year that Iowa and NH will fade in importance.