GOP Pollsters: Dean Can Beat Bush (with 23 states)

[Rose Siding]

GOP Pollsters Insist Dean Can Beat Bush
Roll Call Staff
October 6, 2003

A memo being circulated by a prominent Republican polling firm argues that GOPers run a serious risk of underestimating former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D) as a general election candidate against President Bush.

(*subscription only, which I don't have but msnbc exert follows)
http://www.rollcall.com/pub/49_35/news/3120-1.html


Roll Call reports on a memo from a couple of GOP pollsters arguing that “if one makes the case that Bush could be vulnerable to the poofy John Kerry or the scintillating (yawn) Bob Graham how can anyone write off Howard Dean?... The difference between Howard Dean and the rest of the Democrat candidates is that Dean comes across as a true believer to the base but will not appear threatening to folks in the middle.” The pollsters “also offer an electoral vote scenario under which Dean could defeat Bush in 2004. They give Dean victories in 23 states (270 electoral votes) and point out that Bush lost all but two - Nevada and West Virginia - in the 2000 presidential election.”

http://www.msnbc.com/news/924508.asp

Nice that First Read cleaned up the use of "Democratic", huh?

[cprise]

1. That's why ABB is a dead-end

...especially when there is so much mopping up to do in Washington after the election.

Keeping the economic policies that allow the Right to pillage the middle class will ultimately keep them in control of our politics.

[bread_and_roses]

22. Amen

It is also a dead-end that eventually loses the Congress and White House, because those policies offer nothing to middle and low income workers (much less the poor). If the Dems offer you nothing, and the Right Wing offers tax relief, voters will go for tax relief out of self-interest. That self-interest may be at best short term and at worst an outright fradulent transfer of costs to the States, but pinch people hard enough and they'll take even illusory relief over nothing.

[9119495]

2. Good news--but not surprised

If 2000 taught us anything, it is that ELECTORAL votes matter. If you look at a map and add up the states that would likely be solidly democratic, there is only one or so swing state needed to win. We could even FORGET the popular vote. Dean (or whoever) could not get a single southern vote and still win the election. Even Florida would not be needed if AZ goes dem. And AZ is just an example. There are other swings that would work. FL would definetly seal the deal. The prez is vulnerable and Dean Mobilizes people into action. I can't wait for 11-04.

[cprise]

3. Welcome to DU!

:toast:

[Kahuna]

4. Good. Maybe now the GOP will stop supporting Dean..

They dumped Sharpton and Lieberman for Dean. Now that smirk is looking like he could lose to anybody, they have may have to support CMB, Kucinich or Sharpton now.

[w4rma]

10. LOL. A majority of the GOP isn't taking Dean seriously and isn't moblizing

against him. They have exactly the same attitude towards Dean that you have Kahuna.

That is the point of this GOP memo.

The smart GOPers are trying to warn the others. But, the others (and some conventional wisdom following and/or DLC-leaning Dems) don't believe the smart GOPers. :D

[blm]

12. If it was sincere, it would be kept private.

The GOP doesn't air their real concerns in the open press.

[w4rma]

14. If they are trying to warn other Republicans, they *have* to. (n/t)

[leyton]

27. Exactly.

Now, I like Dean, but perhaps this polling firm wants Dean to be nominated because they think they have a good strategy against him. They don't leak this stuff for kicks.

[dsc]

35. Funny but when Rove

very publicly said he wanted Dean to be the nominee I don't recall you making this argument. So which is it? Do they or don't they air this stuff in public?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

38. You will never get an answer!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

39. seems pretty obvious to me

what the answer is.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

40. Care to spill the beans?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

42. check that national poll showing Clark and Kerry as the only Bush beaters

and that with Kerry not even getting the same national exposure Dean has all summer.
It's pretty obvious. John Kerry is and always has been the Democrat the GOP fears the most. That poll proves it.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

46. This was what we we're talking about:

dsc:

Funny but when Rove very publicly said he wanted Dean to be the nominee I don't recall you making this argument. So which is it? Do they or don't they air this stuff in public?





Note: As for national polls, I would highly recommend that Kerry, and Clark for that matter, pay more attention to this before thay go looking at Presidential head-to-head numbers. Cart before horse.

Ballot Preference - July 2003 through October 2003
Likely Democratic
primary voters Oc


.............................OCT..SEPT..AUG..JULY.............

Wesley Clark............5%...2%...1%...2%
Howard Dean...........29%..31%..28%..19%
John Edwards..........3%...2%...2%...2%
Dick Gephardt.........6%...8%...10%..10%
John Kerry............19%..21%..21%..25%

Undecided 29% 27% 32% 30%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/dem/

[NewYorkerfromMass]

47. 2 things: Get a link for the Rove comment

and show me another poll of the head to head match ups of the likely general electorate.
BTW: The Democratic primary voters don't always pick a winner 'ya know.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

48. Sending me on an errand?

:shrug:


(Part 1) You've been here long enough to be conversant with the facts. PM blm and she'll give you the Rove quote. Are you denying that it exists?

(Part 2) I was just maintaining that national polls are bullshit. Why would I have a poll, which I consider insignificant, at the ready? :shrug:




And finally, why are you skipping out on the question that you pretended to answer? Namely:

Do Rethuglicans air their strategy in public, or not? (Original source= dsc, in this very thread! The post that YOU responded to!)



Re-read the posts if you are having trouble folllowing the conversation.







On edit- Original question!

dsc (1000+ posts) Mon Oct-06-03 08:52 PM
Response to Reply #12

35. Funny but when Rove
very publicly said he wanted Dean to be the nominee I don't recall you making this argument. So which is it? Do they or don't they air this stuff in public?

[NewYorkerfromMass]

50. What did Jeb Bush say recently?

believe me. I know bait when I see it, and Rove et al. are serving it in healthy portions. I can't believe all the evidence is right there in front of you and you refuse to see it.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

52. What DID Jeb say recently?

Here evidence, evidence, evidence! Here evidence, evidence, evidence!


C'mere boy!







Note: The only thing that I'm looking for is evidence. "...all the evidence is right there in front of you and you refuse to see it..."


Poor blind me. :(

[NewYorkerfromMass]

53. NYfM is happy to oblige

NOTE: You don't give your "most feared" opponent free press.

http://www.wtev.com/news/state/story.aspx?content_id=555E4235-C0D7-4B86-87C9-8A216ADE8FC1

FACT: Kerry is more of a threat NATIONALLY to Bush than Dean (albeit by only 2 or 3 percentage points)

[OHdem10]

54. Republicans want to keep Dean in the Running

Deanies please do not crucify me yet. Republicans think they can beat Dean the easiest because they can use the "social"issues against him in the red states, Also they absolutely do not want any person with a respectable military background on the same stage with Bush if they debate. Before you get out the flogs this does not mean I agree with them---being forewarned is forearmed, I always say.
I just know how Gop thinks.If he gets the nomination be prepared.

[mot78]

30. I dunno...

This memo seems fishy. The Repukes have a history of manipulating public perception of their reactions in elections. They could been leaking this memo to build up Dean and get him nominated.

[polpilot]

32. Dean is developing repub support as he has always done in his Vermont

elections. Probably the repubs who are warning repubs are getting too much, 'I'm votin' for him' and THEY know what this means.

Howard leaves behind the demos who won't vote for him, doesn't waste his time with them, and picks up repub replacements. #'s, #'s, #'s.

Dean '04...

[LiberalTexan]

56. Post #10-- EXACTLY W4RMA

I can tell you Republicans aren't taking ANYONE seriously as a contender. I've seen the conservative boards out there. They are all patting themselves on the back and saying Bush is unbeatable in '04. There ARE some Republicans that are having an "oh shit" moment and realizing that this momemtum needs to end. Dean used to be a no-name and now people are starting to listen to him (the guy serving ICE CREAM at our local gelato place tonight asked me about Howard Dean! A GOPer tried to verbally attack my husband at the gas pump for his Dean bumpersticker). Things are starting to heat up out here! They can't ignore the movement anymore.

[blm]

5. Now isn't that interesting that they're pumping up Dean....AGAIN.

.

[Larkspur]

9. Dean doesn't neet the GOP to pump him up, except to use their

dismal record of management of the country against them.

“The Bush campaign is taking Dean seriously because they think he would do a better job of rallying the Democratic base than some of the other candidates,” said one Republican consultant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Dean gets their base voters excited.”

And I agree with this GOP assessment. Dean is the best choice among the Democrats because he is pumping up the Democratic base, and moderates are also disgusted at Bush and Dean's message resonates with them as much as it does us. Many moderates and moderate Republicans see Bush and the neo-cons as a threat to our democracy just as many of us Democrats do. Dean is the only Dem candidate who gets it and has the organizing ability to do something about it.

[blm]

11. HAHAHA...they've been doing it since February.

Sure he doesn't need it..............ANYMORE.

[hedda_foil]

6. More clips from the Roll Call article

From the Dean blog http://blog.deanforamerica.com


Monday, October 06, 2003
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning News Roundup
We'll start today's Roundup by excerpting for you an unfortunately subscription-only article from the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call:

GOP Pollsters Insist Dean Can Beat Bush

A memo being circulated by a prominent Republican polling firm argues that GOPers run a serious risk of underestimating former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D) as a general election candidate against President Bush. <...>

Dean has leapt to the top of the polls in key primary states as well as the money chase by touting himself as the consummate outsider candidate in a field filled with Members of Congress.

“The difference between Howard Dean and the rest of the Democrat candidates is that Dean comes across as a true believer to the base but will not appear threatening to folks in the middle,” write. “We are whistling past the graveyard if we think Howard Dean will be a pushover.” <...>

Officials involved in Bush’s re-election campaign as well as several Republican pollsters say they long ago came to the realization that Dean was a political force that needed to be taken seriously.

“The Bush campaign is taking Dean seriously because they think he would do a better job of rallying the Democratic base than some of the other candidates,” said one Republican consultant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Dean gets their base voters excited.”

In an interview Friday, Moore agreed that “those who are fully engaged in the political process understand that does represent a potential problem.”

[deutsey]

8. Sure doesn't seem like they're hoping he gets nominated

:shrug:

[AP]

15. Dean's come in fourth out of four in the three head to head vs Bush polls

I've seen.

[w4rma]

17. In the interest of not starting a flame war I've intentionally

left the title of the thread that this link leads to blank.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=417033

[AP]

26. An election is a head to head matchup. And it will be ____ vs Bush.

That means the most important question that can be asked in a poll is, "between ____ and Bush, who would you vote for?"]

On election day, they don't say, "among all democrats, which one most closely reflects your opinions?"

I'm definitely not saying that the person who is ahead in the head to head vs Bush poll today will be the winner a year from now, but if you're asking all likely voters, Dem and Repub, who they'd vote for in head to heads between Bush and Kerry, Dean, Gephardt and Graham, and Dean consistently comes in last EVEN THOUGH he's near the top in most national polls asking which of the ten dems running you like, then I say you can't ignore that fact.

[cindyw]

31. Here's why

What you have to realize is that there are 10 candidates. Dean may have very strong and organized support among 10-20 percent of democrats, but the rest are split among the other candidates. They are split but it seems more likely they would choose the "anti-Dean" when choosing in a Dean vs. "anti-dean" group. Dean will have to position himself center eventually in order be acceptable to a larger group of primary voters.

[stickdog]

43. And Hillary comes out the best.

So is Hillary really the best candidate?

The reason Dean is lowest is because the media has portrayed him as too liberal. Since his record proves otherwise, a couple of percentage points in these early polls is meaningless.

[janx]

19. Looks as if we were right about the Rove comment!

.

[LuminousX]

20. Let's keep them underestimating Dean

Dean is FAR too liberal for mainstream America.

Dean's stance on Iraq is out of sync with Main Street.

Dean scares seniors.

Dean doesn't understand race issues.

Most Democratic voters will stay home instead of vote if Dean is the candidate of choice.

Bush doesn't even have to run a campaign against Dean to win. It'll be a Reagan landslide.

Keep repeating these things to your Republican friends.

[janx]

24. I've kept my mouth shut, but some of them are starting to figure it out.

Most are still slumbering though--getting all itchy about the California recall fiasco and whatever else they see on TV.

But it's going to surface at some point, probably if/when Dean gets the nomination.

At that point, all hell will break loose.

There is a site http://bushblog.us/?q=node/view/438 that has all kinds of garbage posted about all of the Democratic candidates. Note how much more it presents about Dean than about the others.

[JoAnnSimon]

34. Let's Keep Underestimating Dean

Luminous,

I hope, obviously, that you are being sarcastic. If not, you had better get a different look on life.

[dolstein]

7. Here's the problem with this analysis

While it's possible to come up with a list of 23 states (with electoral votes totaling 270) that Dean could theoretically carry, what are the odds of Dean winning EACH AND EVERY ONE OF THOSE STATES?

Gore managed to win the lion's share of the toss-up states in the 2000 election, but he still lost New Hampshire, West Virginia, Nevada, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri and (albeit on a technicality) Florida. Gore very nearly won in spite of this because he had some margin for error. Where is Dean's margin for error? Does anyone really think Dean will be as competitive as Gore was in Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri and Florida? Let assume Dean would be at least as competitive as Gore in New Hampshire, West Virginia and Nevada. And hey, let's throw in Ohio for good measure. That still means Dean would have to run a near-perfect campaign in order to win.

[w4rma]

13. Rosenberg: “…Dean campaign is the best-run campaign we’ve ever seen.”

Dean still on top of money race

WASHINGTON, Oct. 1 — In the surreal mind-set of the campaign expectations game, psychology can get twisted at the end of every quarter. Democratic front-runner Howard Dean’s campaign publicly set $15 million as its goal for fund raising for the third quarter, which ended at midnight Tuesday. According to Dean’s Web site he raised $14.8 million, with last-minute contributions still being counted.

DEAN HAD dramatically exceeded fund-raising expectations in the second quarter by collecting $7.6 million. Is his $14.7 million a wee bit of a deflating result for the third quarter? Only if you live on the plane of surreal expectations.

EXTRAORDINARY MONEY MACHINE

Dean’s extraordinary money machine is still far more efficient than anything Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, or the other Democratic contenders have working for them.

Dean is on course to have enough money to air television ads and hire operatives in states where fund-raising laggards may not be able to during the hustle-bustle of primaries that will take place in February and the first week of March.
…
“We do believe it is an important decision that we’re going to have to make, because in the end Bush is just raising this money.... They’re going to raise $200 million and spend it against the Democrats between April and August when we go to the convention.... If we make the decision, it would be to compete with Bush. We’ve already proven that we can compete with the other Democrats.”

Simon Rosenberg, who heads the centrist New Democrat Network, put the Dean bounty in perspective by noting that in a 10-candidate field the former Vermont governor was able to raise 50 percent more than Bill Clinton raised in the best quarter of his 1996 re-election effort. Rosenberg called Dean’s feat “almost miraculous” and added, “We have to recognize that the Dean campaign is the best-run campaign we’ve ever seen.”

Taking the party-wide view, Rosenberg pointed to what almost no one else has noticed: Based on the preliminary estimates for the third quarter, the 10-person Democratic field collectively will have outraised the Bush campaign, an indication of how fired up Democratic donors are.

“If Bush is this supposed fund-raising king, then this so-called ‘weak’ Democratic field — to use Karl Rove’s word — is outraising him,” Rosenberg said.
…
http://www.msnbc.com/news/974339.asp
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=108&topic_id=52916

Also, you're assuming that the GOP is correct that the race(s) will be like 2000 and razor thin close. I agree with the GOP that the race will be razor thin close. I think that the Dean campaign has the best chance at pulling it off.

Note, post #6 by hedda_foil has more information on the Roll Call article.

[JaneQPublic]

16. Good point.

Also, with Dean there's the dynamic of having a bunch of energized first-time voters brought into the mix.

While I can't point to any data to say how big a factor this is, I just know that at our first local Dean meetup, there was a bunch of people who in 2004 will be voting for the first time for a presidential candidate.

[psyntist]

25. Yes

I have a lot of friends that this will be the first election they have ever voted in. I think the anger toward the current administration will cause us to get a much higher tunr out.

[Skwmom]

41. I'd love to know how much money Repubs are contributing to

Dean's campaign so that they will have an easy target in 2004.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

44. Plenty I'll bet. nt

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

37. This from a tombstoned troll

:freak:

[LuminousX]

21. Wasn't TN lost mainly over gun control?

I think Dean offers some interesting new twists to the standard Democratic candidate.

[stickdog]

45. If Democrats would just start riding the wave, Dean could easily bring in

320 electoral votes. Easily.

[mmonk]

49. Yes let's

start the coronation.

[Speck Tater]

23. Putting aside emotions and biases,

ignoring for a moment that we all have our favorites and those with whom we feel most idealogically aligned, as a purely practical, pragmatic matter, we must all eventually face up to the fact that Howard Dean will be the next president.

The sooner we all recognize that simple fact the more effective we can be in getting the message out and mobilizing against the shrub and his gang of liars and theives.

[LuminousX]

28. Tongue in Cheek?

I hope.

I'm a Dean supporter but above and beyond that, I'm a supporter of this process. The process relying upon votes being cast before a candidate is selected. A process that forces the candidates to put on dog and pony shows, kiss babies, and answer uncomfortable questions about their past positions and how they relate to the current situations. It is a good process. Kind of messy, but good.

As much as I want Dean to be President, he still has to run this obstacle course and run it in good time before he can go against Bush. If Kerry, Kucinich, or Braun beat him, then they get the chance at the Big Show. That's how the game is played, no matter how much I think Dean deserves the chance.

[Speck Tater]

29. Not tongue in cheek.

but 50% wishful thinking, 50% reading the trends.

[Vis Numar]

33. he can beat htem even harder with 32 states

Which I think is more plausible.

[poskonig]

36. Dean will be in the 250-300 EV margin.

It all depends on whether we win the swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Nevada, and so forth. Most of the south is out of play for any Democratic candidate; Clark for instance has as much chance of winning Mississippi as Bush does of winning Massachusettes.

[Hawkeye-X]

51. What's more

I'm going out on a limb and predicting a 40+ state going for Dean. He has done exceptionally well, and I'm about to introduce the deaf people in Colorado about Dean in two weeks from Saturday. About 5,000 of them.

Hawkeye-X

[UnapologeticLiberal]

55. My school has a subscription - here is the full text

I know what the rules are about posting the full text of articles, but Roll Call charges $200 per year just for an online subscription, which I find to be elitist and unfair, especially since they have no pay per article option the way most news sites do. Thus, now that I go to a university that has a subscription, I am going to "share the wealth" and post the article. Moderators, use your discretion about whether to keep it here or not.

Here is the text:

LENGTH: 975 words

HEADLINE: GOP Pollsters Insist Dean Can Beat Bush

BYLINE: By Chris Cillizza ROLL CALL STAFF

BODY:
A memo being circulated by a prominent Republican polling firm argues that GOPers run a serious risk of underestimating former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D) as a general election candidate against President Bush.

Pollsters Bob Moore and Hans Kaiser of Moore Information argue that "if one makes the case that Bush could be vulnerable to the poofy John Kerry or the scintillating (yawn) Bob Graham how can anyone write off Howard Dean?"

Dean has leapt to the top of the polls in key primary states as well as the money chase by touting himself as the consummate outsider candidate in a field filled with Members of Congress. "The difference between Howard Dean and the rest of the Democrat candidates is that Dean comes across as a true believer to the base but will not appear threatening to folks in the middle," Moore and Kaiser write. "We are whistling past the graveyard if we think Howard Dean will be a pushover."

The two sent out the analysis late last week in response to a recent New York Times column by David Brooks in which he interviewed eight Republican pollsters, all of whom said Dean would be the easiest of the leading Democratic presidential candidates for Bush to defeat.

That view - based on Dean's fervent opposition to the war in Iraq and call for a full-scale rollback of Bush's tax cut - remains a potent one among a number of Republican Members and strategists who believe Dean's supposedly liberal stances would doom him when he tries to appeal to swing voters next November.

"Dean would clearly be the weakest in terms of his ability to reach out to the middle," said Republican pollster David Winston, a contributing writer for Roll Call.

"We don't mind Howard Dean at all, particularly in the South and Alaska," said National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman George Allen (Va.), noting that Dean at the top of the ticket would likely help the GOP Senate candidates in those areas.

Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) offered less measured remarks on the topic last week.

"Dean's my man. I'm a big Dean guy," Bush said sarcastically at an event announcing that he would serve as chairman of his brother's Florida campaign. "I think being governor of a state that's got a budget half the size of Miami-Dade County makes him eminently qualified to be the Democratic candidate."

Moore and Kaiser rebut that sort of "conventional wisdom," calling it "misguided" and "counterproductive."

"Writing off a candidate like Dean by selectively sorting statistical gobble-de-gook and mixing it into a broth of 'empirical' sociological evidence ignores the political realities of our time," the memo notes.

One Republican pollster agreed that the assumption that Dean's ideological underpinnings would alienate swing voters could well be wrong-headed.

"Part of his appeal appears to be more stylistic than substantive," the pollster said. "There is an element of plain-spoken, Ross Perot style about him."

Moore and Kaiser also offer an electoral vote scenario under which Dean could defeat Bush in 2004. They give Dean victories in 23 states (270 electoral votes) and point out that Bush lost all but two - Nevada and West Virginia - in the 2000 presidential election.

Moore and Kaiser argue that with Sen.

Harry Reid (D-Nev.) not likely to face a top-tier opponent and the "nuclear repository issue still alive and kicking," the Silver State, which Bush won by 20,000 votes in 2000, could easily be carried by the Democratic nominee.

Similarly in West Virginia, where Bush won by a surprising 6-point margin in 2000, Moore and Kaiser believe that "Dean's willingness to work with the on gun owners' rights will go a long way to deflecting the 'liberal' charge."

In the 2000 election, then-Vice President Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college to Bush 271 to 266.

Officials involved in Bush's re-election campaign as well as several Republican pollsters say they long ago came to the realization that Dean was a political force that needed to be taken seriously.

"The Bush campaign is taking Dean seriously because they think he would do a better job of rallying the Democratic base than some of the other candidates," said one Republican consultant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "Dean gets their base voters excited."

In an interview Friday, Moore agreed that "those who are fully engaged in the political process understand that does represent a potential problem."

Indeed, Dean's plain-spoken appeal to

party regulars to be proud of their Democratic roots has resonated among some voters.

In Iowa, Dean has moved from low single-digit support at the start of 2003 to a perch as the co-frontrunner along with Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.) in the Jan. 19, 2004, caucuses.

Dean began in New Hampshire with somewhat of a geographical base due to his 12 years as Vermont's governor, though Kerry was originally pegged by many analysts as the frontrunner in that state's Jan. 27 primary. But Dean is now leading in many New Hampshire polls although the state remains a critical must-win for Kerry.

Between July 1 and Sept. 30, the Dean campaign raised better than $15 million, shattering the previous record for fundraising in a quarter by a Democrat that had been held by former President Bill Clinton. Dean has raised nearly $25 million since Jan. 1.

Even that number, however, pales in comparison to the $80 million Bush has raised during the past six months.

For its part, the Dean campaign says it

doesn't mind being underestimated.

"To underestimate Howard Dean is to underestimate the hundreds of thousands of Americans who are joining the Dean campaign every day - all of whom are committed to the change that Gov. Dean's campaign represents," said spokeswoman Courtney O'Donnell.

LOAD-DATE: October 6, 2003

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