Some random thoughts on the CA recall and the future of politics

[lams712]

I am just a non-Californian, outside observer who wants to get in a few points about this whole recall debacle.

First, I am shocked and dismayed by Californians decision to select a governor of such modest talents (acting, intellectual, and otherwise).

I have no love lost for Gray Davis or any other type of moderate/conservative/DINO-type Democrat. If someone like the late great Paul Wellstone were to get involed in such a recall caper, his supporters would have taken to the streets by the thousands. A bland, wishy-washy moderate is unable to genterate the passion that a true grassroots progressive-type would. Moderate politicans who operate from the right do so at their own risk. That risk being alienating the core constituencies that should be supporting him/her. I remember Gray Davis' 2002 re-election not generating much passion and he barely won against a real right-wing wacko. When the recall movement began there wasn't anyone taking up for Davis' cause.

All of that being said, Gray Davis GOT SCREWED. All of the problems of California, all of the issues and points made by Republicans, etc. were made in NOVEMBER 2002 and DAVIS WON. Davis should NOT have faced a recall unless he was truly CORRUPT, CRIMINAL, or MENTALLY INCAPACITATED, which he was NOT. THE REPUBLICANS ABUSED THE RECALL PROCESS AND GOT AWAY WITH IT.

I also have some sorrow about that state of politics today. Generally, high-tunout elections are supposed to benefit the left/liberals. As I have now seen in Minnesota in 1998 (governor's race), the Minnesota 2002 Senate race and now in the CA recall, the right has won some high turnout elections. I am very saddened and disappointed in the GOTV efforts, NOT because they were poorly executed or anything, but because it seems to me that maybe the people ARE NO LONGER RECEPTIVE TO OUR MESSAGE. I hope I'm wrong, but I fear we will have not only four more years of "W" NO MATTER WHO IS OUR NOMINEE, but the right will control Congress too, not matter how great our GOTV efforts are.

[The Left Preacher]

1. Does Cruz Bustamante stay?

Iwas just wondering
Does The lutienent governor stay or does he leave also?

[murphymom]

2. He stays

There have been several occasions where the governor and lieutenant gov. have been different parties. It's not a joint ticket like POTUS and VIce-POTUS.

[GOPFighter]

3. The voters gave everyone the finger yesterday

They are so fed up with politics and politicians, and big money and spin, and "the liberal media" that they would voted for Pee Wee Herman if he was the only other choice. This, IMO, is the beginning of what I believe is a huge political upheaval in America, and it may get very ugly before it gets better. I'm getting a bad feeling about our future.

[jiacinto]

4. One problem with your theory

The support of hard core left wing activists is not enough to win an election. You need more than that.

The trick is keeping them while not alienating the swing voters you need to close the deal.

[lams712]

6. That's exactly my point....

In my electoral theory progressive/left-liberal beliefs can win elections with high voter turnout and great grassroots GOTV efforts. What I'm saying is that in several recent high turnout elections the "liberal" candidate has lost. I saw how the labor unions and minority leaders worked really hard to either stop the recall or elevate Cruz Bustamante, and those great efforts ultimately failed. That's why I'm REALLY, REALLY WORRIED about 2004 and beyond.

[jiacinto]

8. But they can't

You need more than the base to win an election. GOTV is critical but you need to also reach independents to win.

Now you can enlarge it but that doesn't eliminate the need for swing voters.

[acerbic]

5. The current and future state of U.S. politics in a couple of cartoons:

[burr]

7. based on the results..it appears much of the recall vote came from Dinos.

Also, when you add up the 32% that Cruz won and the 3% Camejo won, this accounts for 35% that voted no on the recall. So where did the other 10% come from? Polls will eventually tell us, but my guess is from diehard neo-con McClintock backers who did not want arnold to become governor! This should of been a winning coalition.

This means that many independent and democratic voters either stayed at home, or turned out and voted both for arnold and the recall. The question is why did it happen?

<http://vote2003.ss.ca.gov/Returns/summary.html>