Sabato: Lieberman, Gephardt or Edwards

[DemDogs]

are the only ones who can beat Bush according to Larry Sabato's electoral map. (Don't flame me, it's not my map.)
<http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-othercands.htm>

[tedoll78]

1. I'd throw-in Dean..

with the right VP who could deliver 6 more electoral votes from one of those striped states.. sayy.. Clark?

[joeybee12]

2. I don't see how he figures that one out...

...I don't think either of these three would be the strongest candidate if he got the nomination.

[quinnox]

3. I like Gephardt and Edwards both

I believe they are both good candidates, but I think Edwards would have a better chance to win.

[cindyw]

4. Don't assume Lieberman can win California

What makes him think that Lieberman can win Florida? With Jeb in office, a Dem will have to have a huge lead to overcome the cheating hijinx coming in that state. And there is also reason to believe that Lieberman could lose California. Arnold will campaign against and apparently boring people need not apply in my idiot state.

I would also like to see why he thinks Kerry would lose Florida, as opposed to Lieberman. Also, why would Edwards necessarily win N.C. I hear he is not too popular there. maybe as VP he could bring the state in if people thought there was more experience backing him up in a Pres. candidate.

[dolstein]

6. Feinstein's managed to do well in CA and she's boring

NT

[Pez]

7. heh

migrated jewsih population from new york?

oh and i think your subject should be "...florida"

;-D

[dolstein]

5. There's no real analysis here

All Sabato did was assume that each Democratic candidate would carry all the states whose electoral votes were awarded to Gore, as well as their home state (if it wasn't carried by Gore). And in the case of Lieberman, he included Florida's electoral votes.

So Dean losese because he can only carry the states Gore won. And Gephardt and Edwards win because, according to Sabato, they can carry their home states IN ADDITION to the states carried by Gore. And Lieberman can win because he can carry Florida as well as the states carried by Gore.

Real imaginative. And this guy's a professor?

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Sabato is rarely creative or insightful

Plus, he tilts distinctly right. Anything that oddly dismisses Dean or a Democratic frontrunner can be expected.

I have looked at Sabato's race-by-race analysis for years on his website. The only redeeming qualities are he has sources in individual states who sometimes make sense, and not in a conventional wisdom fashion. Plus, Sabato understands the partisan tendencies of states and does not go overboard in projecting bizarre pickups in unfriendly states, unlikely many zealots on DU.

[DemDogs]

9. Not a Sabato fan but

You can't assume that anyone who dismisses Dean's chances "leans right" -- His analysis has been pretty successful and he is not the only one who thinks people like Gephardt and Edwards have the best chance to win the general.

[Awsi Dooger]

19. Just my impression over the years

Sabato is not exactly a newcomer. I read his book on the 2000 election, and have seen him host many political panels on C-SPAN. Plus the appearances on CNN, MSNBC, etc. I would say he gives the right a 60/40 break.

I am an Edwards supporter who believes he would have the best chance in the fall, although Wesley Clark may cause me to re-evaluate. Both Edwards and Clark focus on positives and the future. I'm concerned Dean's rhetoric ("Bush is the enemy") plays well at DU but would flop nationwide.

[Kahuna]

10. No Clark. So I assume this analysis is B4 Clark entered..

the race. Therefore it is null.

[DemDogs]

12. Actually on the previous pages Clark is covered (n/t)

[OHdem10]

22. Cynically Speaking we are being conditioned to accept Insiders

after deliberatly scouting all the TV programs this weekend, the pundits ae busy conditioning us to the idea that only establishment Candidates can be President. Look at each of these canddiates. Close your eys and imagine each one ofthem competinmg with Bush. Do they jump out enough that if you are a swing voter you are going to jump up and down and say I will risk change and go wtih this guy. Secondly do you see Democratic Activists jumping up and down in excitemnet?? Do you see Joe Lunch Pail looking at these guys and getting excitd enough?? <These pesky outsiders like Clark and Dean asre such a bother--they will be falling like lead soon--they have no place to go but down--Pundits opinion.> I say look at all candidates and make up your own mind. Pundits want an early candidate--so the Bush Machine can destroy him before the election campaign can begin.

[rads]

11. Lazy analysis

Granted, this far out it's really not in anyone's interest to do an in-depth state-by-state analysis for all of the matchups. But, this whole thing just reeks of intellectual laziness from a guy who should (probably) know better.

[SaveElmer]

13. I'd change West Virginia and Minnesota

If Dean gets the monination I'd move West Virginia to leaning Democrat. Deans gun stance I think will have play in that normally Democratic State. And I think Minnesota should be moved from Probable to leaning Democrat no matter who the nominee is. It's been trending right for the past few elections, and I think that will continue

[loyalsister]

14. Missouri

is going to be impossible to predict. We have anti-incumbancy towards a Republican leg and Democratic Governor. Guns will be a factor. Education will be a factor. No way does the entire state "lean Gephardt" He has only ever won a single district congessional here. It may however, be leaning towards dumping Bush after NCLB.
Given the political climate, I almost wouldn't be shocked to see us go for the Democrat nationally, replace some local Republican legislators with Dems, AND elect a Republican Governor.

[9119495]

15. Gore States Plus AZ means Dem victory

We should focus on Gore states and anyone of those Bush00-but-now-we-hate-him-states. AZ is in play, right?

[Zynx]

16. It's a big stretch to say that Edwards would win NC.

He is not that popular there. I would personally expect Dean to do better in places like WV than Sabato says.

[DemDogs]

20. Edwards will win NC

He has been growing in support in NC each time it is polled. When it comes time to vote for the first NC President ever, NC pride will be added to his growing support.
And Dean has zero chance in WV. They aren't voting for a Vermont governor with his record even if he IS pro-gun.

[Zynx]

21. WV voted for Dukakis.

I think that should tell you something.

[poskonig]

17. I wonder why Ohio isn't in the Democratic column.

Hell, it should at least be a battleground state.

[killbotfactory]

18. Or Shwahzenneggah!

Oh sorry, I've been without internet for a month and the only thing on the news was about this Arnold fellow. I think I've been brainwashed.