Poll: Blanco and Jindal statistically tied in runoff

[goobergunch]

The Associated Press
10/8/2003, 4:50 p.m. CT


BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) — Democrat Kathleen Blanco and Republican Bobby Jindal remain in a dead heat statistically for the governor's runoff election, according to one of the first polls taken to gauge voter intent for the November race.


The survey of registered voters showed 42 percent of the voters choosing Blanco, the lieutenant governor, compared to 41 percent for Jindal, the former health official. Seventeen percent of voters were undecided, in the two-day series of tracking surveys by pollster Verne Kennedy.

However, Kennedy adjusted the numbers to account for undecided black voters, who overwhelmingly vote for Democrats, and said the runoff election currently stands in Blanco's favor. With that adjustment, Blanco would get 53 percent of the vote, compared to Jindal's 47 percent, Kennedy said.

"Jindal can win this. Either candidate can win it," Kennedy said Wednesday, noting that he gave Jindal 10 percent of the black vote when he weighted the survey to account for black undecided voters. Republican candidates rarely get that percentage of the black vote, and Jindal did not get that in the primary.

more...http://www.nola.com/newsflash/louisiana/index.ssf?/base/news-4/106565035017130.xml

[CMT]

1. Blanco will need a huge turnout

of Affrican-Americans to win, just like Mary L had last year.

[jiacinto]

2. I think Blanco wins

My prediction right now: Blanco wins by 1-5 points. But that depends if she can get the black vote out. The question is: Does Cleo Fields dislike her to the extent that he disliked Landrieu?

[mndemocrat_29]

3. Blanco needs to get the African American vote out

We did well in Louisiana in the primary. We just need that kind of support in the runoff.

[tedoll78]

4. I predict Blanco also.

Especially if she follows the "Landslide" Mary Landrieu plan for getting out the vote. Given that the Democrats got a combined 56% of the vote in the primary, this could be a huge morale booster for our party.. proving that we can win elections, and in the South too!