Eastern Shore state senator to challenge Mikulski next year

[goobergunch]

By Del Quentin Wilber
Sun Staff
Originally published October 11, 2003

A first-term state senator from the Eastern Shore has scheduled appearances across the state Monday to announce his decision to run against U.S. Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski next year.
Republican Sen. E.J. Pipkin, who rose to prominence after defeating a veteran committee chairman last year, declined to comment on the scheduled appearances, including one at Waters Edge Park in Dundalk at 11 a.m.

Pipkin's decision to run drew praise from State GOP Chairman John Kane.

"We're really excited that Senator Pipkin is running," Kane said. "We've been after Senator Pipkin for the last five months to consider running. ... For the good of the Republican Party, he has agreed to take the plunge and make a go of it."

more...http://www.sunspot.net/news/local/bal-md.pipkin11oct11,0,6147746.story?coll=bal-local-headlines

iYawn.

[jiacinto]

1. Milkulski will beat him comfortably

Ehrlich's victory was due to the ineptitude of KKT. Mikulksi has won three landslide victories. She is the most popular politician in the state. In 1998 she won every county except Garrett.

Pipkin will lose to her. Unless Mikulski finds herself in a major scandal she will beat him--and beat him conviningly. The GOP is being way too optomistic. They won the Govenorship due to a horrible campaign by the Lt. Governor.

[izzie]

2. Barbara is a good women to have in their. Hope we keep her.

n/t

[jiacinto]

3. We will

She will defeat Pipkin comfortably. Stopping short of a murder conviction, or something that serious, she will win.

[pandatimothy]

6. How come Roscoe Bartlett keeps winning?

He is as right wing as they come.

[JohnKleeb]

7. look at his district panda tim its pretty right wing

[pandatimothy]

8. I figure Garrrett and Alleghany Counties are RW

Thanks for the confirmation.

[JohnKleeb]

9. Yes very

I wouldnt know but I am pretty sure that part of MD is near PA and WV. The part near me is pretty democratic and unfortunely my favorite part of MD, that is the ocean shore is GOP :cry: well at least its beach.

[jiacinto]

11. A brief primer on MD's Congressional Map

Throughout the 1990s MD's Congressional district was split between four Democrats and four Republicans. The old map appears here:



As you can see the old 2nd district, which elected Ehrlich to Congress, was logical. It was basically Baltimore and Harford Counties. That suburban Baltimore seat leaned Republican. Even though it had more Democrats than Republicans.

The old 8th, which was part of Montgomery County, elected liberal Republican Connie Morella (R). She was a "misfit"--she was a Republican representing one of the most Democratic seats in the country. She was well-liked and key Democrats in the county never ran against her until Van Hollen unseated her last year.

The 6th, which Barlett represents now, used to elect Beverly Byron (D) to Congress. She held the seat from the late 1970s through 1992, when a Democrat upset her in the primary. Tom Hattery was his name, I believe. And he lost to Bartlett that cycle.

The 1st, the other Republican seat, was the Eastern Shore. The shore is heavily Republican and has been since the 1960s. That part of Maryland, along with the Panhandle, turned Republican when the National Democratic Party swung to the left. Wayne Gilchrest has represented this seat since 1990, when he defeated Roy Dyson (D).



The new map for this decade appears here. What you notice is that all of the districts are misshapen and look very bizzare. The Democrats basically threw Morella and Ehrlich into the 1st and the 6th districts.

The new 2nd District, which now picked up crucial precincts in Baltimore City, gave up territorty in N. Baltimore County and in Harford County. Those precincts went to the 1st and to the 6th. Instead of overlapping with Baltimore and Harford County, the new 2nd extends like a claw into Baltimore City. It follows I-95 into Baltimore and takes in the immediate suburbs of the City. The old 2nd gave Bush II 55% of the vote. The new 2nd gave Gore a majority. The new 2nd was much more hostile to Ehrlich, so he vacated it to run for Governor.

The 2nd had not elected a Democrat since the 1980s. Helen Bentley and Bob Ehrlich were able to hold the old 2nd for the Republicans. Although both the old and the new 2nd have overwhelming Democratic regristration, the Democrats in the old 2nd were more than willing to vote Republican. Indeed the old 2nd never voted for Clinton or Gore.

The 1st and the 6th districts took away crucial precincts needed for the 2nd and the 8th districts from the Republicans. Northern Montgomery County went to Roscoe Batlett. Norther Harford and Baltimore County went to Bartlett and Gilchrist.

The 6th district is Republican because it takes in the "white flight counties" of MD. It takes in Frederick and Carroll County, which are growing really fast. Those counties include a lot of "white flight" that is fleeing the closer suburbs of Baltimore and Washington. Ehrlich's crushing 3-1 margins in Carroll, Harford, and Frederick counties. Redistricting gave all of these areas to Barlett so that Morella would not have Damascus, in Northern Montgomery County, to give her crucial votes. Damascus is one of the few Republican leaning areas in Montgomery County.

The 8th district elected Van Hollen (D) in 2002. The new 8th district gave up the Northern part of the County to the 4th and to the 6th district. The seat gained crucial votes in PG County. It picked up the towns of Takoma Park, Riverdale, Bladensburg, Colmar Manor, and Mt. Rainer. These precincts enabled Van Hollen to defeat Morella.

Morella was an anomaly, as I had said. But she was really popular. After she first won her seat in 1986 she was routinely able to win comfortably. Key Democrats in the County respected her and worked with her. Through the 1990s she was able to win with 70% of the vote or more even though Democrats were winning other offices in the area.

Then, in 1998, Ralph Neas, the director of People for the American way, held her to 60%. While it was still a comfortable win for Morella it was significant lower than her previous showings. Then, in 2000, Terry Lieberman held her to 45% when he ran against her and very well might have won had he not found himself in a scandal with neighboring Democrat Jim Moran, who represents the Arlington area in Congress.

Thus the new MD map maximizes Democratic opportunities in the seats that encompass the Baltimore-Washington area. It basically pushes all the state's Republicans into two seats. It concedes the exurbs of Washington and Baltimore, along with the Eastern Shore and the Panhandle, to the Republicans. They designed the map so that it would elect 6 Democrats and 2 Republicans, which is exactly what happened in 2002.

[DemDogs]

24. Has anyone from the Eastern Shore

ever won statewide office in Maryland?

[jiacinto]

25. I don't know

nt

[wrkclskid]

4. Meh

Mikulski will win, she is very popular and even many Maryland repukes admit privately it's unlikely, they say they are more optimisitc about Sarbanes in 2006 cause he is pretty left, but I doubt that too.

[NewJerseyDem]

5. Mikulski is just as liberal as Sarbanes

So, I don't think that they would have a shot at Sarbanes either, even though he seems to do a tiny bit worse that Mikulski in elections, he wins comfortably. Also, Sarbanes may retire in which case I hope Chris Van Hollen runs and I would think he would win an open seat, but that opening would be the republicans best shot.

[JohnKleeb]

10. I wouldnt mind a guy like Cummings who is the head of the congressional

black cancus running he seems like a good guy.

[mndemocrat_29]

13. I think Cummings enjoys his House power

And probably won't run for the Senate.

I agree, van Hollen seems like the most-likely candidate.

[JohnKleeb]

21. I dont know , I am well versed in MD politics

[jiacinto]

17. Cummings would never win a statewide race in MD

for a variety of reasons. Also I think that if Sarbanes vacates his seat that either Dutch Ruppersberger or Ben Cardin would run for it. CVH will have only held his seat for two terms.

[mndemocrat_29]

19. Ruppersberger will only have two terms then as well

n/t

[jiacinto]

22. Yeah

but Dutch was county executive. He also hails from the Baltimore area; and, with the exception of Glendening, almost all of Maryland's statewide office holders have hailed from the Charm City area for the last 100 years.

[jiacinto]

12. Their best shot probably wouldn't be until 2010 or 2012

It would have to be a second term Ehrlich or Steele. Furthermore it would have to be an open seat.

[mndemocrat_29]

14. Ehrlich/Steele will never see a second term

But Steele will probably run in 2010 if Mikulski retires.

[mdguss]

15. Maryland's 6th--Republican Infighting

It is doubtful that Mikulski will lose next year. Short of a Bush landslide (which is still possible), she'll win easily. However, if we go down in flames next year, Bush will have coattails, and people like Pipkin (who wouldn't normally win) may be able to benefit from it. I hope Sen. Mikulski wins.

I live in the sixth district. Roscoe is quite possibly the worst Congressman in the country, but he's won every time. Steve Crawford came to closest to beating him (1996). Crawford got 44% in that election. But in 1996 Roscoe was suffering from the cops finding sheep carcuses on his farm.

The 6th is conservative (Garret County just voted out Speaker Taylor), Frederick (Maryland's second largest city has a Democratic Mayor and council, but Frederick consistently votes Republican in state and national elections), and the rest all go to the Republicans. Frederick State's Attorney Scott Rolle (Republican) says he's going to challenge Roscoe next year. I don't like Rolle, but he is better than Roscoe.

State Senator Alex Mooney (R-Frederick, my Senator--how embarassing), has shown the ability to raise the kind of cash it takes to run for US Senate. (He spent around 1 million on his re-election campaign). Mooney is fringe right-wing, but he also comes off as a nice guy, and he is a good campaigner. Mooney will never run against Roscoe because he once worked on Roscoe's staff. Roscoe's son, Joe Bartlett (R-Frederick) is a member of the Maryland State House, and he is likely to try to replace his father.

Mooney has no where to go, and tons of ambition. For a while, I thought he was going to give it a shot next year. My guess is he challenges Sarbanes in 2006. If Mooney ever gets elected to the Senate, he can join Santorum in the right-cliff caucus.

[jiacinto]

18. Mooney et al will never win a statewide race in MD

I do think, though, the sixth will remain safely Republican next year. Redistricting made it more Republican than it was by giving it all the exurban precincts of Baltimore and Washingotn. The sixth picked up all the "white flight" precincts.

[jiacinto]

16. I would not be that optomistic

I do think O'Malley will give Ehrlich/Steele a run for their money. But I am not counting them out either.

[mndemocrat_29]

20. It's going to take a really, really bad campaign

on our part for the Repukes to stay in office. Erhlich isn't a moderate Repuke, he's a hard right winger. I'd be really surprised if we didn't take this in 2006. I think O'Malley will be the candidate, and will do a much better job than KKT in 2006.

[jiacinto]

23. Yeah O'Malley would be a great candidate

But by 2006 Ehrlich will be an incumbent and will be able to raise a ton of money. I wouldn't automatically assume he loses. So far his tenure has been mediocre, but that doesn't mean that things won't turn around for him either.