Iowa and New Hampshire Are Everything This Year

[DJcairo]

Some in the media and some supporters of second tier and third tier candidates are pushing the idea that a compressed primary calendar this year will give bigger influence to the early February primaries like SC, AZ, OK and NM and will make the IA and NH primaries less of a factor in determining the eventual nominee. Other than SC, none of these states have held their Dem primary this early before.
There are two problems with this assumption.
1) Historically you've got to finish in the top three in IA. Harkin far out did his main rivals, Clinton and Tsongas in 92' . Yet, if you check, Clinton is in there at number three. By the time you get to NH you'd better be in the top two if you hope to be taken seriously. Clinton finished 8 points behind Tsongas in '92 and that was considered a strong second since he'd had to come back after the Jennifer Flowers story had weakened his standing.
2) The difference that year was that Clinton had time to put his money advantage and his forminable campaigning skills to work to bring in victories in the south and midwest and ultimately take the most states on Super Tuesday. This year there is only 6 days between NH and "mini-super" Tuesday on Feb. 3 AND there are three guys running strong in Iowa and two running strong in NH. For them, IA and NH are must wins, they were not for Clinton.

There are two possibilities this year. 1) Dean or Kerry win both IA and NH. Could anyone deny that the winner of both IA and NH is pretty much assured the nomination? 2) Dean, Kerry or Gephardt win IA and another guy (most likely Dean or Kerry) win NH creating a split. Whichever of the two does best on Feb.3 (even if Edwards and Lieberman also do well that day) has the nomination sewn up.

I think that because there is bound to be enormous attention on the race between Gephardt, Dean and Kerry in IA and then Dean and Kerry in NH (both are bound to get tight as voting day approaches) the winner will get enormous attention which will help in the subsequent primary. The winner in IA get's about a 10 point boost in NH and a win in NH gives a boost to the candidate going into Feb.3.

The bottom line is IA on the 19th and NH on the 27th will give us a clear winner or two to choose from. What really makes this year different is that our nominee will have to have won IA or NH and that has rarely been the case.

[arcos]

1. hell has frozen over...

I agree with you!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. LOL

[goobergunch]

4. I concur.

With both parts of your statement.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. Close. But not everything.

Early Primary Election Dates



JANUARY 13, 2004
D.C. - Presidential Preference Primary

JANUARY 19, 2004
Iowa - Presidential Caucuses

JANUARY 27, 2004
New Hampshire - Presidential Primary

FEBRUARY 3, 2004
Arizona - Presidential Primary
Delaware - Presidential Primary
Missouri - Presidential Primary
New Mexico - Presidential Caucuses
Oklahoma - Presidential Primary
South Carolina - Presidential Primary
Virginia - GOP Presidential Caucuses

FEBRUARY 7, 2004
Michigan - Presidential Caucuses
Washington State - Democratic Presidential Caucuses





New Hampshire is big for Kerry. Iowa/Missouri for Geppy. South Carolina for Edwards. Hell, they're important for everybody. This is why National polls are meaningless, though.

[SharonAnn]

5. February 10, 2004 Tennessee - Presidential Primary

February 10, 2004 Tennessee - Presidential Primary

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

6. Yep. Here's the rest:

FEBRUARY 8, 2004
Maine - Presidential Caucuses

FEBRUARY 10, 2004
District of Columbia - Democratic Presidential Caucuses
Tennessee - Presidential Primary
Virginia - Democratic Presidential Primary

FEBRUARY 17, 2004
Wisconsin - Presidential Primary

FEBRUARY 24, 2004
Idaho - Presidential Caucuses
Michigan - GOP Presidential Primary

FEBRUARY 27, 2004
Utah - Presidential Primary

FEBRUARY, 2004 (Location: TBA)
Constitution Party - Presidential Nominating Convention

MARCH 2, 2004
California - Presidential & State Primary
Connecitcut - Presidential Primary
Georgia - Presidential Primary
Hawaii - Presidential Caucuses
Maryland - Presidential & State Primary
Massachusetts - Presidential Primary
Minnesota - Presidential Caucuses
New York - Presidential Primary
Ohio - Presidential Primary
Rhode Island - Presidential Primary
Vermont - Presidential Primary
Washington State - Presidential Primary

MARCH 9, 2004
Florida - Presidential Primary
Louisiana - Presidential Primary
Mississippi - Presidential Primary
Texas - Presidential & State Primaries
Washington State - Democratic Presidential Caucuses

MARCH 16, 2004
Illinois - Presidential & State Primaries

MARCH 30, 2004
Missouri - State Filing Deadline

APRIL 27, 2004
Pennsylvania - Presidential & State Primaries

MAY 4, 2004
Indiana - Presidential & State Primary
North Carolina - Presidential & State Primaries

MAY 11, 2004
Michigan - State Filing Deadline
West Virginia - Presidential & State Primary

MAY 18, 2004
Arkansas - Presidential & State Primary
Kentucky - Presidential & State Primaries
Oregon - Presidential & State Primary

MAY 25, 2004
Idaho - Presidential & State Primary

JUNE 1, 2004
Alabama - Presidential & State Primaries
Mississippi - Presidential & State Primary
New Mexico - Presidential & State Primary
South Dakota - Presidential & State Primary

JUNE 8, 2004
Montana - Presidential & State Primaries
New Jersey - Presidential & State Primaries

Week of JULY 26, 2004:
Democratic National Convention (Boston, MA)

JULY 2004:
Green Party Presidential Nominating Convention (Philadelphia, PA)

AUGUST 3, 2004
Michigan - State Primary
Missouri - State Primary

AUGUST 17, 2004
Wyoming - State Primary

AUGUST 24, 2004
Alaska - State Primary

AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 2, 2004:
Republican National Convention (New York City, NY)

SEPTEMBER 7, 2004
Nevada - State Primary

SEPTEMBER 11, 2004
Delaware - State Primary

[Rowdyboy]

7. Well, damn...

I guess we Clark people can just shut up and go home. New Hampshire and Iowa pretty much echo the country, right?

Sorry, but I'm starting to doubt the premise that Iowa and New Hampshire are the whole ball game. Yes, that has traditionally been a very important part of the game, but this season is so compressed that we may see a different result. Prior to Bill Clinton, no candidate had won the White House without first winning the New Hampshire primary. Rules are meant to be broken.

Regardless of our opinions, three months from now, we shall see.

[ModerateMiddle]

29. Rules are meant to be broken.

That's so true. Remember the 2002 mid-terms - it was "fact" that the party in power ALWAYS lost seats in the mid-terms but not in 2002.

History has significance, but it's not determinative. Things could very well be very different this year, and of course, the compressed schedule impacts this. In the past, there was time between the early caucuses in Iowa and the primary in NH and the next primaries to grab all kinds of new money (based on early wins) and use that money in the next states. There isn't that much time this cycle. Money will already have to be available and being spent in the other early states.

Besides all that - it is WAY early for anyone to be predicting who will win which state. There is 3 more months before Iowa even. That's an eternity in politics.

[tokenlib]

33. LOL! Set-up for a few surprises perhaps?

Clark doesn't have to win either NH or IA--even though it could happen (I think IA). If he comes in strong 2nd or even third--Feb 3rd could jump him into the lead.

The more the discussion goes to Kerry vs. Dean--the better for Clark IMHO.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

8. I'll just add two things:

1. It is often forgotten that our delegates are awarded proportionally, rather than winner-take-all. Therefore, a second place finish can be almost as good as a first.
2. Clark is the media golden boy right now, announcing and leaping into the lead in national polls. But if he has a weak finish in both IA and NH it will be alot harder to take him seriously.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

9. Don't forget Super Delegates.

I think that Kerry has a slight edge there.

[goobergunch]

11. Gephardt leads in superdelegates

Gep 36
Lieberman 15
Kerry 14
Clark 14
Dean 10
Edwards 9
Kucinich 3
Braun 2
Sharpton 2

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

15. Yikes!

Thanks, gg. Got a link for me so I can follow them as they accrue?

[goobergunch]

16. Only one from me:

http://www.freewebs.com/goobergunch/gpr.html

I'll be uploading it tomorrow...I've suspended it for about a week due to the recall election. The link will also be in my sig.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

13. If it's close, they're important

otherwise, aren't they a tiny fraction of the total delegate count? I can't remember the numbers off the top of my head...

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

17. In some instances,

the people's vote only counts for 15% of the total delegates. Here in Washington State that used to be the case. 15%. However, a court challenge resulted in the caucus representing 100% of the popular vote. It's more important than you think. It's hard to wrench power from the powerful.

[polpilot]

10. Iowa and New Hampshire are NOTHING this year. An independent

democratic candidate has usurped the process. If Dean polls either side of 10% of the #1 position it will be a stunning victory for his group. All bets are off and we're in uncharted waters.

Dean '04...The New Democratic Leader of The NEW Democratic Party

[Feanorcurufinwe]

12. Thanks for the insightful, unbiased analysis

:eyes:

[polpilot]

14. Thanx. We can all work together as democrats if we remain open minded.

Dean '04...The New Democratic Leader of The NEW Democratic Party.

[Redneck Socialist]

18. Clark and Edwards...

I think you are largely correct except I think a lot of people will be surprised at how well both clark and edwards will do in NH. It is still very early and if either one of them can get their campaigns in gear they have a chance to pull a clinton and surpass expectations. This will give them some momentum to carry on. If Kerry doesn't finish a very strong second he is done.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

19. I think your analysis is right on.

Clark and Edwards are potentially explosive. And Kerry needs to win, although a close second might keep him on life support.

[DJcairo]

21. Clark's sole impact on the primary will be to hurt Dean in NH

[Redneck Socialist]

23. It has the potential to be more than that.

I agree that he is pulling votes from dean (thus helping kerry right now) but the draft clark was very big in NH and if his campaign gets rolling he has the potential to do very well in NH. Keep in mind that independents can vote in the dem primary here and that may help him if, and this is looking like a big if right now, he can pull it together.

[ModerateMiddle]

32. I agree Clark could be very strong in NH

Because of their feistiness :D "Live Free or Die" and a military guy. NH folks, like Iowa folks, are going to be very practical this year. They want a nominee that can kick Bushbutt. NH in particular recognizes the value of strong National Security creds, and Clark came with a bunch of that sans further inspection by virtue of his stars. Whether that initial credibility goes up or down will depend largely on Clark over the next few months.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

25. Too bad the polls don't agree with that

Dean may have dropped from that somewhat outrageous lead he had in the Zogby poll last month, but he's holding a steady lead, despite Clark.

I think Clark intends to do well in NH on his own, and he might just.

Kerry must win NH.

[helleborient]

28. Then why did Kerry's support drop in the last month as well?

According to the ARG poll? Or is his campaign just going badly and losing support to others, and not Clark?

[ModerateMiddle]

30. I agree about NH and Kerry

Word was in the beginning that Kerry had to win in NH because of the proximity to his home state. Given that both leaders in NH currently are neighbors, I think that CW about having to win to continue is less applicable now. Early on, predictions of a strong Dean showing in NH was going to decimate Kerry. But after several months of Dean having been touted as the front runner, he's going to feel a lot of pressure to win in NH as well.

[poskonig]

20. A sound argument. Therefore, I agree with you.

I feel soiled for some reason. :silly:

[dsc]

22. Even though this senario favors my candidate

I don't think it is necessarily true. Either Edwards or Clark could run the table in the South even if they lose those states. Of those, Clark would have the best shot of doing that. But it would be very difficult to say the least.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

24. Isn't this gonna be FUN?

No longer can we say "It's early still." 3 months til primary season begins.

My daughter just entered an essay contest to go to the NH primary; it's for a kids' magazine, they want 3 young teens to write for their website about the primary. Guess which parent gets to go if she wins? :)

[OKNancy]

26. Wishful thinking

With the larger group of primaries coming just one week after New Hampshire, there won't be the bump as seen in the past. There won't be as much publicity and there won't be much fund raising time. Also there is little incentive for anyone in such a large group to drop out. Why should they? There are so few delegates at stake in NH and Iowa. These delegates will be divided between all those that receive over 15%.

On Feb 3rd there is more than just South Carolina. It seems like even pundits are living in the past. Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, and Oklahoma combined with South Carolina have a lot of delegates to be won.

On Feb 4th, there will still be five or even six candidates still standing.....depending on their funds.

[Padraig18]

27. I agree

If anything, IA and NH will be less important than ever before, and for precisely the reasons stated.

[Punkingal]

31. Good post.....

and excellent responses. You guys CAN get along....what a nice thing to see with my morning cup of tea!!!!!

[TKP]

34. Primary Season

I couldn't say that NH and Iowa will make or break the candidates. There are seven (7) primaries following shortly thereafter, and some of the candidates are campaigning more in the states they believe they stand a better chance of winning. I would expect a candidate fallout sometime in mid-February.:)

[beyurslf]

35. Kansas

Why is Kansas never listed in the primary/caucus list? We don't have any abundance of Dems, but we do have some. We are March 13.