Iowa and New Hampshire are LESS important this year

[NewYorkerfromMass]

Contrary to the other post, I have been thinking that the primaries are SO front loaded this time around that the springboard effect of Iowa and NH will be neutralized a bit. The early primaries in several big states will have more weight because there will not be much time for the winners to capitalize on victories there.

January 19- Monday, Iowa Caucuses

January 27- Tuesday, New Hampshire Primary

and just a week later there is a slate including 5 western and midwestern states:

February 3- Tuesday
Arizona Primary
Delaware Primary
Missouri Primary
Oklahoma Primary
South Carolina Primary
New Mexico Caucus
North Dakota

February 7- Saturday, Michigan Primary and Washington Primary

February 10 is the: Tennessee Primary, then Wisconsin Primary (17th), Idaho and Virginia Primaries (24th), and Utah Primary (27th-Saturday).

And less than a month after it's begun will be Super-duper Tuesday which is almost frightening in its weight:

March 2
California Primary
Connecticut Primary
Georgia Primary
Hawaii Primary
Maine Primary (not certain)
Maryland Primary
Massachusetts Primary
Minnesota Primary
New York Primary
Ohio Primary
Rhode Island Primary
Texas Primary
Vermont Primary

So from what I see the race will be decided in just a little over a month. Not a very long time, and not just in NH and Iowa. The campaigns best organized in these early states will have the advantage.

http://www.fairvote.org/turnout/dem_sched04.htm

[FlashHarry]

1. Ah, but it's all about media coverage.

There's a week between IA and NH, and another week between NH and the Feb. 3 primaries. For those two weeks, the IA and NH winners (if they aren't the same person) will be drenched in free media coverage. Two weeks makes a huge difference.

[mmonk]

2. I still have problems with the idea

someone in South Carolina is really gonna give a hoot who New Hampshire voters voted for.

[9119495]

3. You're right but...

why would dems care who wins South Carolina if they don't win the state in the general election. Yes, delegates are at stake, but that is true in larger states on and around Feb. 3rd. In that sense, free media will help tremendously...but remember, the media love a "good story" and they will pick up on what they want. If Clark gets above the 15% threshhold in Iowa, it may be seen as a victory. If Dean wins, they will have 6 days to sell a Clark vs. Dean race. This would come at the expense of a 2nd place (IA) Gephardt and possibly Kerry. The media will be after ratings.

[mikehiggins]

5. If Dean wins

the caucus and the primary then the following spate of primaries will be the last chance for Kerry and Gephardt alike. It is not inconceivable that Clark will "win" or "place" several of these contests, but he will most likely not drop out until the convention no matter how he does in the primaries.

Sharpton, Braun and Kuchinich will be in it until the end as well so we may enter the convention with Dean, Clark, SHarpton, Braun and Dennis the K still around. If they are still there, what reason for the others to leave either.

We might well see a brokered convention and wouldn't that be amazing?

Yet another way for our party to shoot itself in the foot.

[sleipnir]

They can't go to the end

Braun and Sharpton will be broke in about two months at best, they're out and I fear the same fate will befall Kucinich. Look at the money, they don't have it and it's damn expensive to stay in and campaign. I forsee only two to three candidates that stick it out to the bitter end, Clark, Dean, Gephardt.

[sleipnir]

11. They can't go to the end

Braun and Sharpton will be broke in about two months at best, they're out and I fear the same fate will befall Kucinich. Look at the money, they don't have it and it's damn expensive to stay in and campaign. I forsee only two to three candidates that stick it out to the bitter end, Clark, Dean, Gephardt.

[LuminousX]

4. They don't

but if ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox, CNN, New York Times, USA Today, and Washington Post are all talking about one or two candidates, it will sway some fence sitters.

[poskonig]

9. You are right. That's 50-100 million in free airtime.

eom

[Freddie Stubbs]

6. Very good point!

In a few election cycles Iowa and NH may become less and less relevant as the primary process becomes more and more front-loaded. McCain skipped Iowa and it then won NH. Perhaps some candidates will skip both and still be able to compete.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

7. The key is the "free" week or so of media coverage the winners get

that's it. Mobilization on the ground in the states immediatley following can offset that to a significant degree.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. a weekly kick

and if the race betw. Dean and Kerry tightens this will be even more true.

[sleipnir]

10. It will be over BEFORE Super Tuesday

Due to the new setup and all that, I predict that Super Tuesday will be irrelvant, we will have a clear winner before Wisconsin. There's enough diversity in the prior primaries that a clear winner will be seen. I'm calling it now, Super Tuesday will be a technicality that will award the nod...

After that watch the candidates drop like flies

Also, Bruan and Sharpton (and to some degree Kucinich) don't have the money to go the distance and never will.