Bad NH Poll for Kerry

[DemDogs]

Dean at 30, Kerry at 17, Clark at 10, Gep,Joe & Edwards bunched around 5.
UNH poll released today.

[cindyw]

1. 3 point difference is a bad poll?

I notice Dean isn't gaining and neither is Clark. A bad poll would be if Clark now had 17 and Dean had 38 and Kerry had 10.

Link please

[arcos]

2. 3 point difference?

30-17= 13%.

[cindyw]

6. I passed 1st grade math

Dean-30....30-------0 difference
Kerry-20....17-----3 point difference
Clark-10...10------0 difference

[arcos]

7. where are you getting the other numbers? n/t

[cindyw]

12. Zogby

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/2003-09-26-nh-poll_x.htm

There is also a poll from October 9, that has Kerry at 19% and Dean at 29%. These changes are all within a margin of error.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A3806-2003Oct9.html

[arcos]

15. those are different polls...

and you can't compare two polls done by different pollsters.

[cindyw]

19. Give me an earlier UNH poll then

Otherwise I think that the Washington post poll is more accurate especially since it is closer to the Zogby results.

[arcos]

20. earlier UNH results...

early July

Kerry 18%
Dean 16%
Clinton 14%
Lieberman 11%
all the others: 3% or less


http://www.evote.com/index.asp?Page=/news_section/2003-07/07082003newhampshire.asp

[UnapologeticLiberal]

34. 13 points, not 3

30-17=13

Mousepads, Shoe Leather, and Hope

[arcos]

3. do you have a link? n/t

[Duder]

4. Good poll for Dean

It's like a football score 30 - 17. :)

[DrFunkenstein]

5. More like a Half-Time Score

No points for yardage. Final score is what counts.

[MercutioATC]

9. I'll agree with that, but it IS a definite step up from a few months ago.

Remember when certain people were crowing that Dean had not bested Kerry in ANY polls outside of the margin of error? That was only a few months ago. It's certainly too early to take things for granted, but I'm sooooo happy that a few of the naysayers are being proven wrong (remember the little thing about Dean "peaking too early" when the Q2 contribution numbers came in?).

It's still a horse race, and I'm happy that the field is still so large. I've had the opportunity to hear more from the candidates, and although Dean is still my first choice, I like a lot of what Edwards has to say, too (I'd never really considered him before).

(on edit)

Oh, and I'd MUCH rather the thread read "Good poll for Dean" than "Bad poll for Kerry".

[Feanorcurufinwe]

11. I'd like to see the UNH poll from a few months ago...

where is it? Does anyone have links?

[izzie]

8. Why does not Kerry do better?

n/t

[poskonig]

10. Because he didn't stress his liberal credentials early on.

Dean got tagged as a "liberal" and went with it. Kerry *is* a liberal, but has focused more on his service in Vietnam and attacking others rather than his solid record as a Democrat.

[Pez]

13. every time kerry cites his record he gets bashed for being an "insider"

kind of tricky to maneuver, no?

[JohnKleeb]

14. INSIDER lol j/k pez

[poskonig]

16. You're making excuses.

Kerry is trying to avoid the Dukakis label, when he should be talking about his Democratic credentials, which are quite good. He's going to get bashed directly or indirectly by opponents no matter what, so why not get the goods about himself out?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

18. The goods:

http://www.johnkerry.com/issues/

[ModerateMiddle]

29. Tricky

as, aside from Kucinich, THE most liberal/progressive candidate, it was important for Kerry to avoid the Massachusetts Liberal label, and stress his centrist/national security credentials. The problem that I've seen is that from the beginning, Kerry has run for the general election, and Dean has run for the primary. It's because Dean IS a centrist, so he had to shore up his liberal/leftist side. Kerry IS a liberal/progressive, so he had to shore up his centrist creds.

That I believe explains why the bigger difference in Dem only polls than in matchups against W.

[LuminousX]

31. Just shows he isn't his own man

Otherwise he'd damn the torpedoes, run on his sterling record, and win people over to his side because he isn't checking to see which direction the wind is blowing.

Instead he ran to the right to back Bush and lost some credibility. Not enough to doom him, just enough to cast this slight shadow over his campaign which gave Dean enough wiggle room to zip right by him in the polls.

[ModerateMiddle]

28. attacking others? early on?

where? What ARE you talking about?

[Meshuga]

17. I want to see the poll in December!

Come back in December with the new poll results... I want to see the numbers then...

[CMT]

21. here is the link and some statistics by sub-groups

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/index.html
choose link for press releases and publications.

Dean has the best favorable/unfavorable rating in this poll:
Dean: 69-14 favorable
Kerry: 60-26 favorable
Clark: 45-21 favorable
Edwards 41-21 favorable
Gep 47-29 favorable
Lieberman 49-34 favorable

Did Jeanne Shaheen's endorsement of John Kerry make any difference in who you support?
15% more likely to support Kerry
7% less likely to support Kerry
76%---no difference.

Among registered Democrats Dean holds a 35-20-7 point lead over Kerry and Clark.

Among Independents 27% are for Dean and 13% each for Kerry and Clark.

Those who voted for Bill Bradley in 2000:
33% for Dean
26% for Kerry
16% for Clark
10% for Edwards

Those who voted for Gore in 2000:
34% for Dean
14% for Kerry
5% for Clark

McCain voters split this way:
25% for Kerry
24% for Clark
22% for Dean

Didn't vote in 2000 dem primary:
29% for Dean
15% for Kerry
11% for Gep
4% for Clark

Union members favor:
Kerry 21%
Dean: 18%
Gep 15%
Edwards 9%
Clark 2%

Non-Union voters:
Dean: 32%
Kerry 17%
Clark 12%

18-34 age group: 28% (Dean) 13% (Clark) 9% (Kerry, Gep, Edwards)
33-49 age group: 32% (Dean) 16% (Kerry) 7% (Clark)
50-64 age group: 33% (Dean) 20% (Kery) 11% (Clark)
65-over: 29% (Dean) 22% (Kerry) 6% (Clark)

Dean leads among all income groups even among the poorest:
less than 30K: Dean: 25% Clark: 14% Edwards 12% Kerry 11%
30-60K: Dean: 38% Kerry: 22% Clark: 12%
60-75K: Dean: 38% Kerry: 22% Edwards 9% Clark 5%
75-100K: Dean 34% Kerry 20% Clark 11%
100+k: Dean 37% Kerry 17% Clark 6%

Males:
Dean: 28%
Kerry: 20%
Clark: 13%

Dean holds a 2-1 lead among females:
Dean: 32%
Kerry: 15%
Clark: 8%

Protestants:
Dean: 33%
Kerry 15%
Clark 13%

Catholics
Dean 26%
Kerry 19%
Clark 6%

1st District:
Dean: 26%
Kerry: 21%
Clark: 9%

2nd District:
Dean: 35%
Kerry: 13%
Clark: 12%

[Rose Siding]

22. Wow- that's detailed.

Look at the "didn't vote in 2000" numbers. That's what Dean needs nationally and what he's sure he can draw from. I wish they'd asked "will you be more likely to vote in this election".

[RevolutionStartsNow]

26. "Didn't vote in 2000" numbers

This is what many of us have been saying for awhile...Dean is bringing in new people who didn't vote last time. Gotta love it.

Dean shows fantastic in this poll, across the board...though a word of caution because it's a relatively small sample with a 6% MOE. Still a nice poll just before going to sleep. :)

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

32. Kerry wins with Union and McCain voters. Hmmm.

You'd think the Conservative Devil(Dean) would win McCain's voters. Guess not.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

33. Both ends of the spectrum

[surfermaw]

35. seventy and support Edwards

I support Edwards..but will support the condidate who wins the nomination

[Feanorcurufinwe]

23. A couple things

First: "Two hundred seventy-four (274) randomly selected likely Democratic primary voters were interviewed by telephone between September 30 and October 9, 2003. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-6 percent."

Sorry, but 274 voters over a more than one week period and a 6% MOE -- I'm not impressed.


Second: "Wesley Clark s recent candidacy has not had much impact on the two leaders in New Hampshire, but has hurt the chances of the moderate Democrats in the field, Edwards, Gephardt, and Lieberman. The New Hampshire Democratic electorate is quite liberal -- exit polls in 2000 showed that more than half of those voting in the Democratic primary considered themselves to be politically liberal -- and moderate Democrat candidates are having a tough time competing with the more liberal message of Dean and Kerry."

Well, those who only glance at the news may still believe that Dean has a 'liberal message', but we at DU know better don't we? And so will the voters of NH by January 27.


http://unh.edu/survey-center/dem101403.pdf

[DannyRed]

24. Frankly,

Although this poll clearly is good news for my preferred candidate for the nom, and I welcome such results....

I actually think that polling should be outlawed.

I think that polls are self-fulfilling prophecies that reinforce their own results, unfairly sway opinions without any reference to actual facts and policies, and are insufficiently explained statistically or methodologically.

Polls contribute to "he's popular" politics, and to the herd mentality.

So, while I am glad that Dean (my preferred candidate) is apparently leading in NH, Iowa, and doing quite well in many other places (like Cally, Michigan, Arizona, and etc) I really hate the Polls game...and I think it should stop.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

25. It does

emphasize the horse-race aspect too much, I concur. 90% the time spent nowadays by the media talking about polls is time that they used to spend talking about issues.

[DannyRed]

27. Well,

at least we agree on SOMETHING...

It really bothers me that a discussion of politics now boils down to poll comparisons rather than position comparisons...

Position comparisons are reduced to soundbites and out of context snippets, decades old "gotcha" attacks, and the like...

And candidates without "face time" are caught in a downward spiral of "unpopular" therefore "not electable" therefore "no time to state positions or policies"....

I support Dean, and will support the eventual nominee, regardless...

But the time comparison of the candidates in the last few debates has been...telling.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

30. 274 voters?

why bother? :shrug: