NH poll: how Bush does vs. Dean, Kerry, and Clark

[CMT]

Here is the UNH poll regarding how a possible general election race between Bush vs. Dean, Bush vs. Kerry, and Bush vs. Clark would look at this time:

Bush: 48% Bush: 49% Bush: 47%
Dean: 38% Kerry: 38% Clark: 32%

Per the director of the poll: "Bush's electoral strength in NH is not surprising given that Republicans have a 11-point margin in registered voters over Democrats."

Still Bush is under 50% among each of our candidates and that is encouraging.

Here are demographics on how Bush does against each of these three candidates among key subgroups:

Democrats: 83-6 for Dean
Independents 37-36 for Dean over Bush
Republicans 85-5 for Bush

Liberals 65-22 for Dean
Moderates 48-42 for Bush
conservatives 70-19 for Bush

Union members 45-44 for Bush
non-union voters 49-37 for Bush

18-34 age group 54-29 for Bush (+25)
33-49 49-36 for Bush. (+13)
50-64 47-45 for Bush (+2)
65-over 46-40 for Bush (+6)

high school or less: 53-28 for Bush
some college 49-37 for Bush
College grads 46-42 for Bush
Post Grad 45-47 for Dean

less than 30K per year 32-43 for Dean
30-60K 46-44 for Bush
60-75K 42-52 for Dean
75-100K 57-38 for Bush
100-plusK 53-35 for Bush

Bush vs. Kerry:

Dem: 11-82 for Kerry
Ind: 32-37 for Kerry
GOP: 84-5 for Bush

Liberals 19-64 for Kerry
Moderates 47-42 for Bush
Conservatives 74-17 for Bush

Union members: 43-46 for Kerry
non-union voters: 50-37 for Bush

18-34 57-29 for Bush (+28-Bush)
33-49 48-38 for Bush (+10-Bush)
50-64 44-45 for Kerry (+1 for Kerry)
65-over 49-38 for Bush (+11 for Bush)

High school grad or less 55-29 for Bush
Some College 48-36 for Bush
college Grad 44-44 tie
Post Grad 49-42 for Bush.

Less than 30K per year 31-46 for Kerry
30-60K 47-41 for Bush
60-75K 42-50 for Kerry
75-100K 58-38 for Bush
100K plus 52-38 for Bush

Bush vs. Clark:
Democrats: 9-70 for Clark
Independents 35-26 for Bush
GOP 80-7 for Bush

Liberals: 19-56 for Clark
Moderates: 45-35 for Bush
Conservatives 70-16 for Bush

Union households: 46-37 for Bush
Non-Union 47-31 for Bush

18-34 year olds: 52-26 for Bush
33-49 47-33 for Bush
50-64 44-36 for Bush
65-plus 45-30 for Bush

High School or less: 53-24 for Bush
Some College 45-28 for Bush
College Grad 45-38 for Bush
Post Grad 43-39 for Bush

Less than 30K per year 33-35 for Clark
30-60K 42-38 for Bush
60-75K 47-32 for Bush
75-100 48-37 for Bush
100 plus 55-34 for Bush

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/index.html
choose press releases and publications.

**The thing which really stands out is how badly our candidates run among the very youngest--18-34 year olds we are running 25-points or more behind against Bush, yet among older age groups 50-64 and 65 and over we are almost neck and neck. Hope this can change in the months ahead.

[w13rd0]

1. I know it's not polite to say...

...but younger voters, not having been exposed to a living history, tend to make rather snap judgements based upon marketing campaigns. Luckily though, most of them won't even bother to vote, and hopefully those that bother will also have bothered to examine the issues enough to realize how bad Bush is for this country.

[sandnsea]

2. Young singles for Bush????

Does that explain the $30 - $60,000 bracket leaning Bush? That bracket makes no sense when you look at all three candidates. We're missing something right there I think. That bracket should be solid Democrat.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

3. Okay, who are the liberals voting for Bush?

In Dean v. Bush, Kerry v. Bush and Clark v. Bush, our guys don't pull 100% or even nearly 100% of liberal voters? I can barely understand Dems voting for Bush over Dean/Kerry/Clark, but I can stretch my mind there. I can't however understand how a voter who identifies him or herself as "liberal" indicating they would rather vote for Bush.
Much less 19-22% of them. This just doesn't make sense. Explanations?

[CMT]

4. I wonder about that too

How can anyone call themselves a liberal and vote for Bush? Then I see 16-19% of conservatives are voting for Clark, Kerry, and Dean--which makes a little more sence since Bush is not an economic conservative at all having created such a huge debt.