Iowa Poll indicates tight race between Dean, Gep, and Kerry

[CMT]

In a poll of 400 Iowa Democrats with a history of caucus attendence, Howard Dean is in a tight race with Dick Gephardt and John Kerry. Dean leads with 23%, Gep follows with 20%, and Kerry is right in the thick of things with 17%. Wes Clark drew support from 7%. 22% have yet to pick a candidate. The poll has a +/- error of 4.9%.

http://www.qctimes.com/internal.php?story?_id=1019068&t=Iowa+%2F+Illinois&c=24,1019068

[DJcairo]

1. Indeed, and this poll is two weeks old

And Edwards internal poll taken around the same time also indicated a tigh trace with Kerry behind Dean by only one-point. This Iowa race will be a big story for Kerry who was not really thought to be that competitve in Iowa. If he rises to the top of the pack in Iowa that is huge.

[CMT]

2. yes

if Kerry actually comes on so strong as to win in Iowa he would have great momentum going into New Hampshire. If Dean wins, the same also could be said. Anything less than a win for Gep however, will be taken as a defeat he may not be able to recover from.

[DJcairo]

3. Dean has gone from a clear lead in Iowa to within margin of error

The three are practically tied with Iowa Kerry definately getting the most momentum at this point. However, we need more current polling that shows Kerry moving up in Iowa and that will make his momentum their the news story. Tom Vilsack was reported as saying last week in a reuters article:"I think people are underestimating Kerry," Vilsack said. The decorated Vietnam veteran has attracted broad support, particularly from veteran's groups, he said.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=3579188

[CMT]

4. actually Gephardt and Dean have been close

in most of the polls. It is a must-win state for Gephardt. Gep had a big lead in the state in the spring and since then Dean has moved up. But Dean has never had an overwhelming lead in Iowa.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

10. And NH is a must win for Kerry.

It would be very interesting if Geppy nips Dean in IA and then Dean nips Kerry in NH and then Edwards takes SC. There's a pretty good chance of that happening.

[Meshuga]

5. What makes this a toss up is the group of 22% undecided...

It's going to be interesting! :-)

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. If Gephardt comes in third, will he drop out?

Dupe, so I posted my question in both threads.

[Padraig18]

7. That's a HUGE M.O.E.

The m.o.e is enormous, and the statistical sample very small. Withing the margin, it could be Dean with an almost 5:2 lead over Kerry (27.9% : 12.1%). This poll has something for everyone to spin.. :eyes:

[CMT]

8. agreed

Dean could spin it in his favor but so could Kerry and Gep.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

9. Everyone save Clark.

More reason why those national polls are meaningless.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

11. Well the UNH poll Dean supporters were so excited about has a 6% MOE

All polls are bogus.

[Padraig18]

13. I agree

And I think I made a similar comment about it! :P

[TheDonkey]

12. If Kerry does his campaign right he has a chance of winning Iowa & NH

if he can push full steam ahead. Or come in a strong second.

I don't see how if Kerry loses NH you can count him out yet not Dean who is an even closer neighbor to the state. The states after these 2 will also have a gre3at deal of importance this time around.

[Padraig18]

14. For accuracy's sake

Both VT and MA border NH, and Boston is the MSE most state residents identify/assocaite as their 'nearest big city'.