If Kerry wins Iowa the nomination is his

[DJcairo]

Think about it, a Kerry win in Iowa would be so stunning since no one would have expected it that it would surely provide the bounce he needs to overcome Dean in NH. Does anyone seriously doubt that the man to win both NH and Iowa gets the nomination?

Reuters:Tight three way race in Iowa:http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=3579188

From the Quad-City Times:
In a poll of 400 Iowa Democrats with a history of caucus attendance, Clark drew support from 7 percent of those surveyed. He placed fourth in the survey, behind former Vermont governor Howard Dean with 23 percent, U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri with 20 percent and U.S. Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who drew the backing of 17 percent.

The poll was conducted by Washington D.C.-based McLaughlin and Associates on Sept. 30 and Oct. 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
http://www.qctimes.com/internal.php?story?_id=1019068&t=Iowa+%2F+Illinois&c=24,1019068

Global Strategy Group poll of 400 likely Iowa caucus voters done for the Edwards campaign between 9/20-23

WH'04 Dem Caucus Matchup

..................Now........ 6/03

Dean...........21%....... 12%
Kerry..........20...........14
Gephardt.....18...........24
Edwards......10...........04
Clark..........07...........n/a
http://blog.johnkerry.com/blog/archives/week_2003_09_21.html

[Hawkeye-X]

1. Kerry will actually start losing the Iowa voters

and lose NH voters too.

Watch the Dean machine take both Iowa, NH, and South Carolina (away from Edwards), and win ST, etc.

Hawkeye-X

[Meshuga]

7. Can you give me

the winning lottery numbers for this week?

[CMT]

2. I agree with you

I think if Kerry wins Iowa he could very much have enough momentum to win in NH. On the same token if Dean maintains his lead and wins he would be favored in NH.
Now if Gep wins Iowa it will be interesting to see who comes in second. It should be a lot of fun in the next few months.

[Padraig18]

3. I seriously doubt it

The primaries in states wirth LARGE numbers of delegates come so close on the heels of IA and NH that they are both of diminished importance--- if, in fact, they ever WERE truly important, except as hype.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. If Gephardt comes in third, would he drop out?

[cspiguy]

5. Oh HoHoHoHo Ah HAHAHAHAHA HoHo, stop it! Whew...

sniff!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

6. If "if" was a skiff...

...we'd all go for a boat ride.

[Upfront]

8. And If

Bush* shits gold our problems are over.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. It has never happened (combined Iowa/NH wins)

and is not likely to happen this year. JFK might have done it on '60 but he was essentially uncontested.
Iowa and NH always vote different winners. This year will be no different.
BTW Kerry is going to win NH so don't worry about it.

[dfong63]

10. yeah, and if sharpton won IA and NH, he'd be unstoppable too!!! right?