Gun vote could go to Dean

[w4rma]

Strategists warn that candidate is no pushover

WASHINGTON -- In 2000, George Bush was the dark horse presidential candidate in West Virginia, wooing voters right under the nose of would-be Romeo Al Gore.

Now, West Virginia is being linked to another presidential suitor -- and it's not Bush.

Republican political strategists here are warning Bush could be vulnerable to former Vermont governor Howard Dean, one of nine Democratic challengers, in key states like West Virginia, and on exactly the same issue the president used to court state voters -- guns.

"We are whistling past the graveyard if we think Howard Dean will be a pushover," Bob Moore and Hans Kaiser of Moore Information write in a memo first reported last week in the Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call.

The hypothesis since has been picked up by the New Republic and the Washington Post.

The consultants propose an electoral scenario that would send the Vermont governor to the White House by winning 23 states, 21 captured by Gore, plus Nevada and West Virginia.
…
http://www.dailymail.com/news/News/2003101313/

[AP]

1. The ONLY Dem I know whom the NRA likes is Dingle in Mich

and that's because no Republican will ever win that district, because he was on the board of the NRA, because they need to do something to offset the very liberal anti-gun western end of that district, and because he was the one who came up with the phrase "jack booted thug."

I highly doubt the NRA is going to ever get out the vote for a democrat if there's a competitive Republican in the race. They may try to help in the primaries, but they're not going to help a Democrat win the general election.

[blm]

5. And their point is still to scare people from all Dems.

That NRA/GOP meme that Dems will take your legal guns away is pure HORSEHIT politics meant to confine power to Republicans and their cronies.

[loyalsister]

6. relevance?????

"I highly doubt the NRA is going to ever get out the vote for a democrat if there's a competitive Republican in the race."

Would you please give gun owners a little credit??? The NRA may have influence, but the voters aren't morons. I really doubt Dean is dumb enough to dream of an NRA endorsement for the general. But, he knows that the NRA would be practically nuetered when it comes to dem leaning voters who have voted against their interests over guns. That is something that would help dems considerably in the south. It would help in Missouri and some mountain states, too.

[AP]

9. Union members aren't morons, but if the Union tries to get

out the vote for a candidate, the union members usually listen.

The NRA isn't just a group than sends out iron-patches when you send in ten ammo box tops.

They have a lot of money, and they get Charleton Heston to taperecord messages which they put on every voter in a district's answering machine, and they buy air time.

They really get out the vote. And they may do that for dean in the primary, but they aren't going to do it in the general election.

Name one competitive race between a Dem and Rep in which the NRA spent money helping the Dem to win.

[w4rma]

11. Strawman

Noone but you is talking about the NRA endorsing or spending money on *any* Democratic presidential candidate.

[AP]

12. Wicker Man.

How the NRA gets out the vote (and pointing out that it's the same way unions do it and union members aren't dumb) is TOTALLY RELEVANT.

Being pro gun is going to be closer to a tree falling in the woods with nobody to hear it in 2004 (cause Iraq/fear and the economy are going to be the issues people vote on) UNLESS the NRA gets involved and stirs up its members and spends money to elect one of the two candidates.

They're never going to spend money to help Dean over Bush, and, at best, they'll sit out if it were dean. And if they sit out, guns won't be that big of an issue. I can't think of where they've ever been an issue unless the NRA makes them an issue.

I saw a list of the 20 most important issues to voters. The ranged from the economy to gay rights. I didn't see gun rights anywhere on the list.

[w4rma]

13. Another strawman

Noone but you is talking about dumb union members. In fact you responded someone who said:
"Would you please give gun owners a little credit??? The NRA may have influence, but the voters aren't morons."

Also this isn't related to any strawmen (just incorrect assumptions), but
Charleton Heston won't be taperecording messages for the NRA in 2004:

Heston steps down from gun lobby
Hollywood legend Charlton Heston has made his last public appearance as the president of the US gun lobby, the National Rifle Association (NRA).
…
Heston will be succeeded by Kayne Robinson, a former chairman of Iowa's Republican Party.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/showbiz/2974993.stm

[AP]

16. You still don't get what I'm saying.

Drop a note in my inbox if you want me to explain.

[dsc]

19. How many gun owners or hunters do you know

I am willing to bet I know vastly more than you. They don't sit and listen to the NRA 24/7. Many have a minimum standard on guns. Dean fits that.

[AP]

20. how many unions members do you know who read the Socialist Daily News

This isn't all that nuanced. The NRA's power is in getting out the single issue vote. Just like unions. Without their activism, people probably fall back on some other issue or set of issues to vote on, like, wheter they feel wealthy that year, or whether they afraid of terrorism that year.

Without the NRA pushing him or her, I highly doubt an Arkansas voter is going to vote on the single issue of gun control. They're going to fall back on all the other issues that rate far higher on people's list of concerns than gun control.

The NRA is powerful not because it is driven by powerful sentiments from the ground up, but because it can drive powerful emotions from the top down.

[loyalsister]

15. And if a union member

doesn't feel like their interests are represented by the candidate they like guns and they have a Libertarian streak. They just might break ranks and vote Republican. Don't think for a second that it doesn't happen. It's very common to see a disconnect between the organization and the members when it comes to who they actually vote for.
In 2002 we were all perplexed by the fact that the farm Bureau endorsed Jim Talent over Jean Carnahan even after she went to bat for them to get them their subsidies. I was circulating quite a bit campaigning, and despite a bizarre puke take over, the farmers themselves actually stood by their state elected Democrats- as long as they could count on the dem to support things like conceal\carry along with farm subsidies.

[lastliberalintexas]

24. It's happened in Texas

"Name one competitive race between a Dem and Rep in which the NRA spent money helping the Dem to win."

Sorry I don't have the cites for you, but I refuse to go to that group's website. However, the NRA has endorsed Dems over repubs in Texas, from Congressional elections down to state rep races. Just as some unions have endorsed repubs over Dems.

The NRA, for all its other faults, is not a stupid organization. In SE Texas, for example, where a Dem is (was) always going to win (the now defunct) 9th Cong district, the NRA is going to make sure thay are friends with that Dem. They are not the only lobby group that plays both sides.


That said, I do not believe the NRA will endorse any Dem over Shrub. But there are some they can paint as scarier than others. Dean's past A rating, Edwards very moderate gun control positions and Southern heritage, and Clark's fairly moderate gun control positions WOULD make a difference in the general election among the voters for whom this is an important issue.

While I like Kerry, that is one of my concerns about his candidacy. He has been very vocal in his support of additional gun control measures, and it would be easier for them to "Gore" him than the other 3 I mentioned.

That said again, each will be "Gored" on some issue by the Rove media.

[Upfront]

17. Michigan Also

Dean has a position on guns that will help win voters in Michigan.

[sfecap]

14. You may be right, but...

I'm a union member. I watched many, many of my fellow union members vote for bush because they were convinced (by the NRA) that Gore would take their guns away. (I know it's ridiculous, but it happened.)

You may not support Dean, but the fact is that his stance will effectively neuter what happened to Gore among union members.

[AP]

21. The NRA had to actively drive that sentiment. If they weren't getting the

phone calls and the mailings, they would have voted with the union. And it's a shame the Unions don't have more talented PR than the NRA.

The NRA isn't going to root for Dean over Bush, however. I can almost guarantee that. But you're going to have the churches in the south go after Dean for civil unions.

What's going to be a stronger pull on those NRA members? An NRA that sits on the sidelines, or Pat Robertson, et al?

[displacedtexan]

2. Don't throw me into the brair patch, Brer Fox!

I do not trust anything that "republican political strategists" say. Actually, it makes me wonder why they are so keen on touting Dean.

[AP]

4. I'm totally going out on a tin-foil hat limb here, but if I...

...had to guess, I'd say this is the project.

First, I'll tell you what I'd do if I controlled the government. In Eric Margolis's book, War at the Top of the World, , he says that one thing every SENSIBLE government does when it takes power is that it makes sure there's an opposition party so that opposition to the gov't in power doesn't manifest itself through violence and subterfuge. Instead, it manifests itself through legitimate means. (Furthermore, it's important that all voices are represented.)

If I had total power in a government, not only would I make sure there was an opposition party, but I'd make sure that there was an opposition party that debated the issues I wanted to debate. I would control what kind of opposition party I wanted.

I think the Republicans want to set up the Liberterian Party as its opposition party. I think that's why the Cato Inst. is criticizing Bush.

You know what, I'm going to put this in its own post...

[sandnsea]

3. Staunch NRA people won't trust any Democrat

Dean's gun stand might soften a few people who aren't voting on the 2nd Amendment in the first place. But staunch NRA people are staunch Republicans and they'll stay that way. Democrats would do better to continue their focus on getting the cops on the street program back in order to enforce current gun laws to keep them out of the hands of criminals and kids. Guns are dangerous and Democrats are right on this issue and shouldn't let it go. It's just a matter of explaining it to rural voters so they understand that as long as they've buying guns legally and storing them safely, they have nothing to worry about from gun laws.

[billbuckhead]

7. The only way rednecks in the South will vote for him if they think.....

he's Jimmy Deans son. The gun issue is really just code for race and Southerners won't listen to guy from Vermont about race. An Arkansas military guy? Maybe.

[w4rma]

8. I disagree. Dean has *already*

got alot of folks to listen to him, who live in the South. And remember that the South is mostly very rural, like Vermont. Most Southern states are small, like Vermont. Most southerners like their guns, like Vermont.

Gen. Clark is a good guy and obviously he got alot of folks to listen to him because he is an army general. But, IMHO, he's going to have to work for the rest of his votes and I don't think he has enough time to build an organization large enough to compete against Dean's or Bush's organization. A candidate's resume only goes so far.

[sandnsea]

10. Jimmy Dean's son

That's a good one. He really ought to check out the old family tree and see if there's a loose branch that blew south!

I understand there's a whole lot more to the 'gun voters' than guns. Especially Southern gun voters, and it's not entirely race either. Same goes for the mountain gun voters, but they're issues are even a little different than the Southern gun voter. Dean would have a much easier time with them than Southerners.

But if a candidate simply said 'You don't want to sell your gun and have it end up being the weapon that murders a 5 year old in Denver'; he'd have their attention. Then he just says he doesn't have all the answers but that he wants to work with gun owners to solve the gun problem in a way that everybody can live with. If they were asked for their help instead of threatened with regulation, it'd go alot further.

[lastliberalintexas]

25. No offense sandnsea

but how many NRA members or gun owners do you know? They don't actually march in lock step with the organization any more than union members always vote Dem.

My Dem father is a lifelong NRA member, as are many family members and friends who are Dems. Fortunately in Texas, they don't have to choose between this issue that's important to them and the pocketbook issues that make them Dems. Most elected Texas Dems are actually opposed to strict gun control measures as well.


I do agree though that we would be better served by focusing on enforcing the laws we have on the books rather than just trying to create more. There are plenty of laws out there to deal with the illegal guns in the street. But not enough cops to enforce them.

[MrPeepers]

18. Frankly

I think Dean's stance on guns is a huge turnoff for me. Frankly, I don't want my candidate to have an A from the NRA.

peepers

[Feanorcurufinwe]

22. Isn't this what people mean when they say 'Bush-lite'?

"Harry Truman said if you run a Republican against a Republican, a Republican wins every time."

[genius]

23. The shoot-em-up people love Dean. Look what Dean let

happen in Vermont. http://www.pressaction.com/pablog/archives/001035.html#001035

[Township75]

26. I know a shit load of Dems, NRA members and Union members..

being from PA. First off, I think many of you are trying to solve this issue by just looking at a few variables, when there are a whole crap load.

For example, why does the NRA appear to have more sway with some Union voters than the unions? Well, we did have a Dem president that drove through NAFTA, and gave most favored nation status to China, right? That was an union endorsed president, remember? Many union members work in the coal, steel or automotive industries, and didn't really like the union endorsed pro Kyoto Treaty Al Gore Dem candidate. They believed the Kyoto Treaty threatened their industry/jobs. If unions are going to back presidents that send jobs overseas, the union members are smart enough not to vote for them.

Secondly, for AP, the NRA endorsed the Dem Gov candidate in a close race in Alabama in 2002, and endorsed Dean in VT in 96. I believe they endorsed Gov. Casey in PA for both his terms.

I know this from gun owners, Bush is not loved, but not really hated either. Go to Packing.org and do a search under Bush. They are pissed that he wants to extend the AWB, as does Dean. Most pro gunners do not see a big difference, if any, between Bush and Dean.

The NRA has a policy that if 2 pro gun candidates compete for the same job, they will endorse the encumbant, or if no encumbant exists, they will stay neutral. So Bush likely is going to get the endorsement.

And if Dean is the nominee, I say, who cares? If there isn't a difference between the 2 candidates, the issue becomes irrelevant, and so does the NRA. You can state that the NRA will try to make guns the issue, but it's not going to be well received if there is no case to be made. Al Gore made anti gun rights comments throughout his campaign. He wanted to expand the AWB, and he mentioned a registration or database on Larry King. THat is a threat to gun owners, and that makes the NRA's job easy.

Threatening someone's gun rights really gets the pro gunners out in force...ever notice that the anti gun rights people never get out in force? When there is not threat, the other issues will dominate, and so will Dean in 2004.