Another poll has Dean doing worst in head-to-head with Bush.

[AP]

Doesn't this bother anyone? Nobody thinks this might be the reason the media is so helpful to his campaing, and why Rove likes him?

Anyone? Anyone? Buehler?

This is in PA.

Bush led:
Sen. Joe Lieberman, 50-44 percent
Wesley Clark, 48-43 percent;
Sen. John Kerry, 50-43 percent
Rep. Dick Gephardt, 50-42 percent
Howard Dean, 51-41 percent


http://www.guardian.co.uk/uslatest/story/0,1282,-3268543,00.htm

[Name removed]

1. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[liberalnurse]

25. I like that assessment.

You put it so accurate :)

[dajabr]

2. One state...

And the margins are not that wide in favor of any candidate...

[AP]

5. this is the fourth or fifth poll I've seen with the same results.

it's a pattern that's hard to ignore.

[dajabr]

8. 4th or 5th for PA?

I saw alot of polls showing Bush with huge approval ratings right after 9/11 too.

I saw alot of polls showing Lieberman was the National Fave for Pres...

No one is saying we ignore this stuff, just that it's not always written in stone.

[AP]

11. In the last seven weeks, I've finally seen head to head polls.

I believe they've all been IA and NH so far (maybe there was a FL poll in there), and they all put Dean in last among the four or five candidates they poll.

[Vikingking66]

3. dude, MOE n/t

[jeter]

4. AP, this is just dumb

Dean also has the least name recognition among these guys. That makes a difference.

Clinton did worse then all other candidates leading up to 1992, for the same reason.

Are you saying Tsongas would have done better in 1992 than Clinton?

This is just a bad argument.

Stop attacking fellow Democrats.

Attack Bush and the Republicans.

[AP]

9. Dean can't have the least name recognition in the head to head when

he's doing best or second best in most other polls and is raising the most money, and consistently gets three times the amount of time in the debates that Kucinich gets, etc

[boxster]

31. Please show me one poll that proves the "name recognition" claim.

That seems to be the latest Dean supporter claim - that he has no name recognition. This is ludicrous.

He's been on the cover of Time, Newsweek, etc., and has been on the news, especially cable news, almost daily for months. He's been at the debates and is raising millions.

If you don't think he has name recognition by now, I'm not sure what you expect in the coming months.

[Bread and Circus]

59. here's some statistics that can help with this.....

http://irregulartimes.com/irregulartracking.html

[boxster]

32. Edit: deleted - wrong response

Deleted - response to wrong posting.

[madfloridian]

6. Why do you do this?

It is tiring.

[AP]

7. I do it because I want to be able to say, 'see, I was right' about 13

months from today.

[AWD]

13. You WANT us to lose????

Thought so. Thanks for clearing that up for all of us.

[AP]

17. If I wanted to lose, I wouldn't do this at all.

But, if nobody is listening, I might as well tell the truth as I see it, huh?

[sfecap]

15. You are going to be very disappointed..

n/t

[AP]

18. Believe me, I'm already very disappointed.

[indigo32]

35. Man I have to stay out of P & C

this is ridiculous "I do it because I want to be able to say, 'see, I was right' in about 13 months"

Stop for a minute and think what that sounds like. You sure seem to think very highly of yourself

Dean will do fine... he's within the margin of error of everyone of these polls I've seen. AND like it or not... name recognition is an issue here... these are not polls of just Dem voters. Time will work things out.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

12. Cuz he wants to beat Bush. And Dean is not the guy to do it.

[AP]

20. thank you.

It's funny that people need to have the obvious stated.

[genius]

10. This is nothing compared to what will happen if he debates Bush

He is not the person I want debating Bush on behalf of my party. Though I'm sure Bush's people are hoping for this.

[sfecap]

14. I'd like to see Kucinich and bush debate...

Maybe Dennis would run this by him:

"The energy of the stars becomes us. We become the energy of the stars. Stardust and spirit unite and we begin: One with the universe."

That ought to do it.

[mbali]

39. Not a fair fight...

Bush would chew him up in a debate and Rove would finish him off shortly thereafter.

[LuminousX]

40. Because the GOP are geniuses

and we are schlubs.

:eyes:

[killbotfactory]

16. 3% worse than a candidate with better name recognition!

Time to throw in the towell, Dean!

[AP]

21. Dean is beating these same candidates in the primary polls, but he's

not doing as well as them vs Bush to them in the head to heads.

How can name recognition be to his advantage in one, and disadvantage in the other. I'm fairly certain I've seen this same pattern in a NH poll or two which has him leading among likely primary voters in a field of 9 or 10 but coming in fourth in the head-to-head.

What it shows, is that with 9/10 candidates, he gets a solid 1/5th-1/4th, but, when you look at all likely voters, he doesn't do better than the same candidates he's beating in a field of ten. You know why? Because Edwards-Kerry-Gep-Graham-Lieberman voters will all vote for one of those other candidates, and so will a few moderates on each side of the center. But, with Dean, he drives some moderates to Bush.

[killbotfactory]

37. Oh please

I doubt republicans are paying much attention, and there hasn't been any advertising in PA.

[AP]

42. Don't they sell Time and Newsweeek in PA? Do they have CNN and Fox?

The same media to which Democrats are paying attention which results in Dean climbing some of the regional polls (outside the SE) among likely primary voters is the same media to which likely gen election voters are exposed. it's not like there's a Dem-only filter on this news.

[killbotfactory]

44. This is not significant

Sorry.

If he was at 20%, maybe, but he's right up there with the other candidates.

[AP]

46. I'm just trying to bring this to people's attention as early as

possible. It's worth recognizing and discussing.

I know it makes a lot of the enthusiasts angry. And I totally acknowledge that there are arguments which mitigate the significance. However, I think it's a very important consideration.

[killbotfactory]

53. It is statistically insignificant

This thread is for the dogs.

[Bread and Circus]

60. That is a really cute picture....

:hi:

[cindyw]

62. You are on to something here.

This polling trend you are showing is true. While Dean may command core support in some areas of 20-35%. The other candidates are supported by people who want a certain kind of candidate that is not Dean. Together they have support of close to 45-60% of the people. It's like a classic race where one side has a plurality, but the other side splits it's support among candidates and a candidate with a majority of voters against him, wins.

On a similar note I think it is time for a couple more people to drop out. If a candidate goes forward with a small percent of the primary supporters, but not a majority it will weaken the party in the general. I wonder if any of these guys will be gracious enough to put the party ahead of themselves in this thing. Lieberman has to know he can't win, yet he seems to set in staying in through the early primaries. Gephardt has endorsements, reasonable amount of money and some good poll numbers, but I have yet to find someone who things he can beat Bush.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

19. What?

With MOE these candidates all poll THE SAME against Bush. Don't understand statistics, or what?

[AP]

23. But with five polls now showing the same pattern, you have to think

something's up.

We're not talking about dean coming in second in one and fourth in the others. He's simply not doing as well as candidates he's beating among Democrats when he's up against Bush.

Now you put that together with everything else you know about Republicans liking Dean (Rush, Rove, etc...) you have to think they have polling showing similar stuff.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

26. Again, with MOE

he is not doing worse than the other Dems against Bush.

Take the Calif Field poll:

Clark: 45% Bush: 43%

Bush: 46% Dean: 42%

Bush: 45% Lieberman: 41%

Bush: 46% Kerry: 42%

Bush: 45% Gephardt: 43%


This is a statistical dead heat.

And enough with the Repubs liking Dean. Nonsense. That's based on thinking they could stick Dean with the "ultra liberal" label that clearly isn't sticking (because it's not true). Could be they felt this way 6 months or so ago, but now they've seen the fundraising and the crowds at his events and they know something's up. Between Clark and Dean, they know for sure that they are in trouble.

[Toucano]

22. Where is Edwards in that poll?

No problem, just wondering...:)

[AP]

24. Given that, in the last two debates, Dean's gotten about 30 minutes

to Edwards's ten, and given that Rove isn't pushing the media to cover him, I wouldn't be surprised if he's not doing so well. But that Dean hasn't surpassed Gephardt, Kerry, Graham, and Clark in the head-to-heads I've seen says something. To me at least.

Look, I know I'm not going to change anyone's minds. I'm just saying that you should care about this. Don't dismiss it out of hand. If there's something about Dean's style of campainging which allows him to do well in the primary poll and poorly in the head-to-head, he should fix it because to be president, you have to win the head-to-head.

[Toucano]

28. That's reasonable.

Personally, Dean annoys me. But I respect the enthusiasm he generates in others. I also can't see why people like Ben Affleck, so I am willing to concede that I'm a little out of step. :)

I think I'll take polls of this sort more seriously in a few months. I have seen Dean have very low negatives in poll after poll, so I don't think the current head to heads are written in stone. There may be a lot of name recognition involved.

[Baconfoot]

29. Still, check out Dean's movement in the VS Bush numbers from last month:

>A Newsweek poll conducted on Sept. 18-19 confirms the findings of

>the Draft Gore-Zogby poll and indicates that Gore is more electable
>than any other declared or potential Democratic candidate. The
>result (48% Bush-45% Gore, within the margin of error) is almost
>identical to that of our poll (48%-46%). By comparison, Hillary
>Clinton lags by 7 points (50% to 43%), and
>
>Howard Dean lags by 14 (52%-38%).


I wonder where Gore is right now.

[AP]

30. That's a completely different poll. That's probably a national poll

and you can't compare it to these state-specific polls.

[9119495]

34. Who watches debates?

I'm in Iowa and I can't find a single person outside my democratic activist friends that are even watching debates! Imagine what it is like in a state a candidate has yet to visit or has only been there a few times. Or a state that was ENTIRELY consummed by a gubentorial recall vote. AP, you are assuming no one will change their minds between now and 13 months. That is rediculous. You act as though only Clark can win. What if it comes out he is a pedophile that is into Beastiality? Is he ENTITLED to 45% to Bush's 43%? Think.

[AP]

36. The opinionocracy watch the debates. They write abotu what happens in the

debate. If Dean gets 15 minutes in the Debates and CNN is making sure the debates revolve around the theme of "what does Dean think" and "who is Dean attacking" then all the newspapers and magazines fall in line the next day.

[9119495]

38. Yeah but

You are right they put their spin on, but the point here is that many don't know who Dean is and don't care until their own primary or the general election even. Thus, many are tuned out. Your whole point was that Dean will not win the election. My point is that you have no way of knowing at this point. And you should read other posts describing where Clinton was in 92 etc. It is still possible for Edwards to win the nomination even.

[AP]

43. My whole point is that there is something in the way Dean is running

in the primary which makes him popular among about 20% of angyr Dem voters in NH, and which is giving him millions of dollars in donations, which also makes him drive moderate voters to Bush, and which could make it harder for him to win a general election.

When you go on attack and totally define yourself as being against Bush and Aschcroft you push people to the poles -- who circle your wagons. But the other side circles their wagons.

[LuminousX]

41. Rove pushing Media? Proof please.

eskimo

[AP]

45. Someone in a post in GD said they say Rove give a speech on the weekend

in which he said that he wished that the media would stop covering the war. By Wednesday, all the coverage had moved on to Laci Pedersen. Gone were the Iraq-in-the-crosshair logos, and the Iraq war themesongs.

Well, last summer, Rove was at a parade and started cheering for Dean and said that's the one we want. Why aren't people enthusiastic? Well, since then the media has made Dean the focus of the primary.

[dsc]

50. That was a July 4th Parade

and as you well know Dean was already on MTP on June 23 and had gotten a ton of coverage for doing phenominally on fundraising on June 30th. In case you don't know this July 4th happens after June.

[AP]

51. I doubt July 4th was the first time this dawned on Rove.

I bet he'd been going around saying as much beginning last February.

[LuminousX]

55. This Cracks Me Up

They are superhuman. There is no way we can win.

I'll tell you why Dean has media focus. He has a compelling narrative. His 'story' is compelling and it draws upon key literary elements. It will either be a tragedy or an epic. Whether he succeeds or not doesn't matter to the press because either outcome is entertaining.

If Kucinich would cast himself as a Cinderella candidate, the guy who deserves the shot but is too far removed from the spotlight to get a chance to truly shine, the press might pick up on it and give him more attention. Suddenly the voters become the Prince and people start hoping for the happy ending.

Dean's narrative has been matched up well with the hero's journey and is easy to right about in the press. He has his fatal flaw, the Iraq war issue, which might be his undoing making the story a tragedy or he can overcome it, turn it to his advantage and rise to the challenge making it an epic.

For Dean, he has descended into Hell and must slay Grendel, and Bush is Grendel's mother.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

27. I think Edwards is going to see some poll bumps

He's getting some good press and has sounded great in his public appearances lately.

Watch for Edwards to make a run at it. I like him.

[Meshuga]

33. Edwards is going to pull the last minute underdog...

I hope!

I'd love to see him doing better in the polls. More people are finding out about him too so I think he will be much better off in the next two months which is the best time to be noticed!

[DrFunkenstein]

47. The Frontrunner Is Still Down in The Pack?

That would seem to suggest a sharp drop off between Dean supporters and the rest of the world.

Then again, I've heard more than one Dean supporter say something like, "If we're going to lose anyway, I want to register my anger."

What I haven't heard is "Dean is going to beat Bush with his amazing agenda."

But what I see is someone who is known for being an unstable anti-war guy famous for civil unions and rallying white internet kids, whose main claim to the Presidency is that he didn't vote for the IWR. I'd say he has a good chance of uniting the Ross Perot and Ralph Nader people to a triumphant defeat.

[polpilot]

58. Dean is going to beat Bush with his amazing agenda!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dean has beaten his opponents with his amazing agenda!!!!!
Dean has revived the demo party with his amazing agenda!!!

Dean...The AMAZING Candidate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Rose Siding]

48. Bush had 17 pts on Gore, Sept '99

http://cgi.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/09/15/president.2000/poll/

We have a number of candidates placed well.

Dean has already won this election for the Dems, no matter who the candidate is. Of course Dean can beat Bush.

[AP]

49. I'm not worried about Bush being ahead of any of the Dems now.

That wasn't the point I'm making. I think they all have a chance of beating him notwithstanding the gaps.

What I'm concerned about is the relative gaps and what it says about how their campaign tactics could have one result in the primary, and another in the general election. The same strategy which builds the candidate up in the primary (defining yourself in terms of being the anti-Bush, and tearing down fellow dems) might not be the best strategy to take against Bush.

[Vis Numar]

52. Dean just has less name ID

He is coming up in these polls, and will be our next President, accept it.

[Octafish]

54. Don't worry. The angry white NASCAR gun lovers will support him.

In the South, too!

Then he'll stand up to George Bush in a debate, just like he does the other Democrats.

Yeah!

And he'll tell 'em just like it is!

Yeah!

And he'll rip George a new one!

Yeah!

Just as soon as he's done explaining how he managed to dodge, er, stay out of the draft, yet was healthy enough to spend that winter skiing moguls and pouring concrete.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/dean/articles/2003/09/21/a_back_condition_wins_dean_a_vietnam_era_draft_deferment/

D'oops! Guess being a guy who's back is good enough to ski on, yet isn't strong enough for the military, might have a hard time convincing all those angry white NASCAR gun lovers. In the South. And West. And East. And North.

[PAMod]

56. The Democratic candiates are basically tied.

Keep moving folks, nothing to see here.

[David__77]

57. It does concern me.

I don't know who to support. I like the packaging of Dean, but have to think seriously about how to build a winning coalition. If Clark can build that coalition and be beholden enough to progressive forces, then that is where I will probably go. I am intrigued by the idea of a general as our candidate.

[Bread and Circus]

61. I think the pattern is suggestive that Dean may not...

fare super well against Bush. I think Dean
might be able to beat him though. But I think
it will largely contigent upon perception of the
war and of the economy.

What is probably more important is how the
candidates do vs Bush head to head in electorally
key states (Mich, PA, FLA, the south....)

Any have stats on that.

[Duder]

63. Nope, doesn't bother me

"Why do you think you can beat Bush?" said Carl Vogelhuber, 78, challenging candidate John Edwards during an Iowa town hall in August.

"Because of where I come from," Edwards replied. "The values that I had growing up. In many ways, I'm the opposite of George Bush. I'm a walking, living example of the American dream."

"Not sure that's enough," Vogelhuber muttered.

http://www.theunionleader.com/prez_show.html?article=27763