Look how well ALL of our candidates are doing in states vs. Bush

[CMT]

Another thread wants to make the case that Dean is a weak candidate based on early state polls vs. Bush. I make the case that all of our candidates are running well at this case against Bush and that the margins seperating them are not that great and are within the polls moe.

First, polls at this point are not an indication of how any of our candidates will do in an election 13 months from now because by and large most people are not paying attention. Second, we should take all of these polls with a grain of salt, but be happy that even though most people are not paying attention we are doing pretty well against an incumbent president--that is the real story.

Here are some state polls and how our candidates are fairing vs. Bush:
I'll start with New Hampshire, a state where people are paying attention:

Bush: 48%
Dean: 38%

Bush: 49%
Kerry: 38%

Bush: 47%
Clark: 32%

**Now like the other thread I could say, "Hey, look in NH a state where people actually are concentrting on the election this early Dean is running best against Bush, but look at the margins they are actually within the moe. I doubt that Clark will lose NH by 15-points to Bush or Dean by ten-points. I think they all have a great opportunity to win NH--and Bush is under 50% in each of them.
http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/index.html

Now we go to California:
Now the best our candidates are doing is beating Bush by 2-points (Clark) or losing by 4-points (Kerry and Dean). Do you actually think that California is going to go to Bush? This is why these early polls of the horse race vs. Bush are so meaningless.

Clark: 45%
Bush: 43%

Bush: 46%
Dean: 42%

Bush: 46%
Kerry: 42%

Bush: 45%
Gep: 43%

**Each of our candidates is within the moe in California vs. Bush and each is leading among Independent voters.
http://www.field.com

New York:
The best any of our candidates do against Bush in NY is win it by 7-points (Clark) the worst is win it by 2-points (Gep). Do you honestly think that NY which went to Gore by 2,000,000 votes is going to give such a small margin to our candidates?

Clark: 49%
Bush: 42%

Kerry: 48%
Bush: 43%

Gep: 46%
Bush: 44%

Dean: 47%
Bush: 43%

**again each of our candidates are doing about the same vs. Bush in NY.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x660.xml

Here is how each of our candidates do vs. Bush in Connecticut. The people of Connecticut know Lieberman well and they give him a ten-point lead, but all of our candidates are doing well vs. Bush or within moe.

Lieberman: 53%
Bush: 43%

Kerry: 48%
Bush: 43%

Clark: 44%
Bush: 46%

Dean: 45%
Bush: 47%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x660.xml

NEW JERSEY:

All of our candidates currently lose NJ to Bush, but it is still reasonably close between each of them.
Bush vs. Lieberman 49/44 Bush
Bush vs. Kerry 48-43 Bush
Bush vs. Gep 48-44
Bush vs. Dean 50-40 Bush
Bush vs. Clark 47-42 Bush

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x660.xml

PENNSYLVANIA:
Bush beats each of our candidates in Pennsylvania, but look at how they have come up since the last poll:
Bush vs. Lieberman 50-44 for Bush (Bush had a 54-38 lead in previous survey)
Bush vs. Kerry 50-43 for Bush (Bush had led 55-37 in previous survey)
Bush vs. Gep 50-42 (bush had led 56-36 in previous survey)
Bush vs. Dean 51-41 (Bush had led 57-34 in previous poll)
Bush vs. Clark 48-43 (this is first head-to head survey featuring Bush)

So while each of our candidates currently lose Pa. to Bush look at how they are closing the margin. Dean has gone from 23-points down to 10-points down--closing the gap by 13-points. Kerry went from 18-points behind and now is 7-points off so he closed it by 11-points. Each is gaining.

I think we are doing pretty well--all of our candidates, including Dean in these early states vs. Bush. That's my three cents.

[mmonk]

1. Encouraging

but given the state this country is in, I wonder why Bush leads anywhere.

[w13rd0]

2. Your three-cents are worth at least a dime...

...we've got a great field of candidates, and we're confusing the hell out of the GOP. Too many targets for them to concentrate on, too broad a range of opinions. If they attack a target from one angle, it ends up helping another candidate, and then that angle is no longer as useful. I think we should maintain a wide spread of candidates for as long as possible to defray GOP opposition efforts.

[Upfront]

4. Now If They

would attack Bush* instead of each other.

[TKP]

13. $0.11

I honestly haven't noted any confusion on their part. In fact, I see no reason for the Bush campaign to do anything yet. We don't have a nominee. Things don't really get rolling until after the conventions anyway.

[dsc]

3. Gee what a refreshing idea

I am sure the usual suspects will show up and piss all over the place.

[Skwmom]

5. Rove and Co haven't started their attack on Dean

unlike Clark who they have been hitting hard since day one.

Once they start painting Dean as a draft dodger who used a back condition to evade the draft (only to hit the ski slopes and do construction) they they will label him as a "Deanie Weenie."

Once the image of a dem candidate in a weenie suit is put out there (in a well funded massive media assault) the Dems can kiss the 2004 election goodbye.

<http://www.brianpetty.com/show_topics.php?id=14> This is only the beginning.

[dsc]

7. gee do I smell urine

I think I do. Why, oh why, can't Dean bashers ever just leave one thread smelling of something other than urine? Can't you people do that just one MF time.

[Speck Tater]

9. Uh, what Dean bashing?

Am I missing something. I'm a Dean supporter and I don't detect any bashing anywhere in this thread.

[dsc]

11. ah post 5

Dean is a draft dodger isn't bashing. OK then.

[Speck Tater]

8. All the nasty negative campaigning in the world...

... won't do any good if

1) Rove or some other "high-ranking member(s) of the administration" is(are) on trial for suspected treason.

2) The economy goes from bad to worse.

3) The Iraq situation goes from bad to worse.

4) More Iraq lies are exposed in the mainstream.

5) The Bush campaign goes too far and people suddenly see their hypocracy clearly exposed in some egregious manner.

6) The BBV story goes mainstream and the links are exposed between the Repugs and the voting machine companies.

7) ... ???

[CMT]

10. They have planted the idea that

Dean is too liberal to win. Rove will attack whoever the nominee is with whatever he thinks will work. Dean will not take it laying down and that will make the difference.

[Speck Tater]

6. One reason why those numbers may be misleading...

... Suppose a Kerry supporter is asked how Dean will do against Bush. He's more likely to rate Dean lower because he would prefer to see Kerry in the race. In general, anyone who supports a particular candidate is going to have a tendancy to rank the other candidates lower.
Once a candidate is choosen and a VP candidate is named I think those numbers will get noticably better because the not-my-guy bias will be gone and the party will be united behind a single guy (or gal :)).

[dsc]

12. It is very sad how few responses this thread got

Sadly for too many people it is more fun to flame candidates than read good news. We wonder why Bush is in the WH maybe that is why.

[GOPBasher]

14. All good news.

I'm starting to think that the only thing that will save Bush is black box voting.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

15. It's all good. I hope we can take the Senate as well.