How will the Texas redistricting affect 2004?

[mndemocrat_29]

All right, first off, I want to say that I hope the courts reverse the redistricting. However, if for some reason it doesn't, how will it affect our efforts to take back the House? I know that it effects several Democrats that are currently in Republican districts. I know this may sound rather naive, but are there any Republicans being pushed into Democratic-leaning districts (such as Henry Bonilla, who we nearly beat in 2002).

[goobergunch]

1. I don't think so

I specifically checked Bonilla's TX-23. It retains all of its Bexar County portion, which is heavily Repuke, and cuts heavily Democratic Webb county in half.

I'm not an expert in Texas. But an inspection of the map leads me to believe that there isn't much of a silver lining.

[M_Demo_M]

2. The analysis I have read

indicates that the Republicans may gain as many as
7 seats based on the redisticting. We can probably
forget about taking back the House in 2004. :(

[lastliberalintexas]

3. We're screwed

If the court doesn't strike down the plan, there is no way the Dems can hold on to the Texas delegation. We'll lose as many as 7 or 8 seats, and those would be verrrry hard to make up for in other states.

The ones we're most likely to lose: Jim Turner (mine), Nick Lampson, Max Sandlin, Charlie Stenholm, Lloyd Doggett, Martin Frost, Ruben Hinojosa, as well as a few others possibly. All Dems (even if not very liberal), but no repubs in danger.

Welcome to Tom Delay's vision for America. Sieg heil.

(sorry for the bitterness :-) )

[David__77]

4. Is there ANY chance that this will ultimately backfire?

I remember in CA in 1982, the Democrats produced a gerrymandered result that later on caused problems, because in some districts there was a Republican trend. Because of greed for more districts, the Democrats were spread too thin.

I know TX is quite GOP-strong right now, but a bit down the line, especially if Latinos start to really activate as a force, can we gain some of the new districts? I know the GOP goal is to create Democratic districts that cram as many Democrats in as possible. I am hoping that we can hold the line a bit, because I doubt the courts will strike this down.

[lastliberalintexas]

5. I think so

The trend in Texas is actually becoming more moderate and Dem. We are already thought to be a majority minority state, and that the next census will certainly bear this out. I've heard a lot of experts and people who know far more than I say that Texas will more than likely be back in the D column within the decade. (tho probably still not liberal)

Many people think that's why the repubs are pushing so hard for the redistricting right now- so that they will definitely be in control and get to draw the lines next time.

It has actually already backfired a little. I live in SE Texas, which is a fairly Dem area. We are getting carved up into 4 different districts and will have no ability to elect anyone local to office. Our Congress critters will now be decided by Houstonians, and more specifically, wealthy suburban Houstonians. Even local repubs are a little irritated with their party right now. I don't think it's enough right now for them to bolt. However, as SE Texas begins/continues to lose federal and state monies/influence, I think some of the more moderate repubs will switch. Although I'm sure the Guns, God and Gays crowd will stick with the repubs.

The interesting thing will be to watch for the water war that will or may develop. Houston, San Antonio, Austin and even El Paso have been after our water for years. Our elected officials have been able to stop this in the past, so it's never happened. But in the future, interbasin transfers are looking very likely. The rice farmers and timber people (both big repub groups btw) are about to get what they deserve for supporting the fascists. The only problem is, we'll all suffer in the meantime as well.

I'm sure this is more than anyone really wanted to know! :-)

[Frodo]

6. Yes. IF "ultimately" means you're patient.

This accelerates the re-taking of Texas for Democrats as immigration increases the minority population.

They didn't change the number of Republicans and Democrats in TX, they just spread the districts around. That means that the same number fo Republicans are now spread among fewer districts. t won't make any difference NOW, but it will facilitate bumping many of them out as TX moves 3% 5% 8% more Democratic (perhaps 15-20 years from now). When Republicans were winning most of their districts by 20-30% or more, there is no way a 10% population shift would put any of them in danger, NOW many of them are.

Conversely, if things in TX continue to move against us? None of our remaining seats are "balanced" enough to move against us.

And we were going to lose at least three of those seats as soon as the incumbent retired anyway - this just accelerates it.

[genius]

7. We need to convert people.

The Republicans fall into three groups: (1) Those who are Repblicans because they are mean and nasty and want to steal from their neighbors. (2) Those whose parents are Republicans and who just haven't checked out the facts for themselves. (3) Those with no social consience or identifiable intelligence who are more concerned with which restaurant is more prestigious to eat at than with whether people are dying in the world.

The ones we can covert are group 2. Once these people join us, they seem to become stronger Democrats than some lifelong Democrats. This is part of the reason I am not worried about Clark's past affiliation. In his case, I am more concerned about whether he can convince the liberals to vote for him in spite of Kosovo.

In the case of the 2s, we just need to keep educating them and if we educate them enough, they'll vote Democrat.

[lastliberalintexas]

8. Where are you from genius?

Not meaning to insult you here, but in the South, we have an entirely different breed of repub voter. Molly Ivins has described them as the Guns, God and Gays crowd. To stereotype for a moment, they are the pseudo-Christian, holier than thou, all abortion is evil even to save the life of the mother, (Baptist) prayer in school, racist, gun toting, holy rollers. Unfortunately, in the South, this group really comprises a large segment of the repubs, if not the majority!

[Frodo]

9. I'm in NC

And they make up a pretty big number of Democrats too! :eyes:

[genius]

10. California

Most of the Republicans I deal with are upper middle class and completely unaware of current events except as presented by the news media. We've made a lot of progress in educating people and converting them to Democrat here. Out in California, religion isn't that big. Good luck there in the South.